Focus on What Stats MEAN, Rather Than Numbers

Before the college football season starts is a good time to focus on evaluating the statistics that you’re about to see accumulated on a game-by-game basis. 

What’s been considered a recent “analytics revolution” in the world of sports hasn’t really taken hold in college football. Sure, there have been advancements in strategy, and some new stats that strive to evaluate players more accurately…or rank teams more effectively for purposes of the new championship format. But, several factors are aligned against stat analytics in this sport…

• A smaller sample size of games than in any other major betting sport
• A really small sample of good “indicator” games
• Greater pollution from strength of schedule dynamics
• The potential for a more explosive growth curve for young teams
• The potential for a more catastrophic collapse curve for shorthanded or fragile teams
• Differences in how teams accumulate stats in blowouts (discussed last week)
• TV’s influence on hyping their telecasts rather than truthfully evaluating teams
• The tendency for conference or team “networks” to focus on hyping themselves

It’s hard to find numbers that truly mean much in the first place…and the mainstream media is working diligently to prevent you from finding out the negatives of the teams they’re selling to TV viewers, radio listeners, or newspaper readers. 

Ignoring Stat Averages

The best way to deal with all of this pollution is to largely ignore stat averages as a season progresses. And, if you’re ignoring averages, you should also be ignoring the rankings of teams based on their averages. Knowing that an offense averages 5.0 yards-per-carry doesn’t mean anything without context. Knowing that the same offense ranks #30 in the nation in that stat doesn’t tell you much either. 

5.0 ypc against September cupcakes is a strike against some teams

5.0 ypc over three months against a tough schedule is fantastic

As handicappers and sports bettors, you want to know which rushing attacks have a strike against them…and you want to know which rushing attacks are fantastic. The numbers are only important in that they lead you to accurate conclusions for your handicapping. 

Turning Numbers into Words

So, as you watch a bunch of TV games this coming season, and hopefully read as many boxscores as you can, try to turn those numbers into words. Words that answer questions. Can this team control the point of attack? Can this quarterback maintain his composure when pressured? Can this defense stop anybody that knows what it’s doing? Take those answers from your evaluations, and you’ll un-muddy the waters very quickly. 

Let’s work through a scenario…one that’s likely to play itself out at several programs over the next few weeks. I’ll stick with yards-per-rush to keep it simple. And, I’ll use the kind of example that can stay under your radar because the sample team wouldn’t be televised in its first two outings.

Game One: Our sample team rushes for 6.0 ypc against a small college cupcake

Game Two: Our sample team rushes for 5.8 ypc against the worst defense in the MAC

Game Three: Our sample team rushes for 2.5 ypc in its conference opener

As dynamic as 4.77 yards-per-carry sounds through three games (and, you KNOW that some TV announcer is talking about that in the pregame show right before Game Four!), you can see pretty clearly that this is a team that can only move the ball on the ground vs. weaklings, but gets squashed as soon as they run into quality. THAT’S what you need to know. If they’re facing a weak run defense or a generally undersized opponent in Game Four, then they have a chance to control their destiny on the ground. Against quality, blowout fodder. The average of 4.77 gives you no sense of that without the context. 

Start learning about teams NOW!

Many of you will purchase an offseason publication that lists each team’s schedule and gives you room to make notes. Or, maybe you subscribe to one of the classic “rotation” schedules that at least does that on a game-by-game each week. Use those to take notes through the season on all the games you’re studying. For some, that may be your local conference because that’s all you have time for. For many, that’s all the teams in the sports betting marketplace because you’re trying to find any edge to exploit that you can. 

If Week Seven rolls around and you’re relying on stat averages and national rankings, you’ll be trying to handicap with mud. If you’re relying on what you’ve learned about teams, edges are much more likely to jump off the page at you. That’s why it’s so important to focus on this NOW! There won’t be time to play catch up later. The season races by too quickly. 

Be positioned to learn about teams from the outset. Then keep an eye out for midseason improvement created by learning growth and maturity…or midseason warning signs created by injuries or emotional fragility. 

Stats do have an important place in the college football handicapping process. But, it’s a transitional place that takes you from questions to answers. The best way to use them in that fashion is to evaluate skill sets, strengths, weaknesses, and mindset on a week-by-week basis as the games are played. Take your “answers” and move on to the next week, and leave the numbers there for somebody else to average!