Halftime Wagering – Second Half Betting Strategies 

Last week we talked about creative ways to bet underdogs using first quarter and first half options in college football. Seems natural to move to strategies for attacking second half pointspreads this week. 

One of the main points of that discussion was that “live” situational underdogs often fade in the second half because they run out of gas, or because their superior opponent gets its act together just in time to break your heart. Obviously you want to avoid fading underdogs in the second half. What types of teams and situations provide the best opportunities? 

STRATEGIES FOR FINDING SECOND-HALF UNDERDOGS

• Look for quarterbacks who can score points when trailing while avoiding miscues
• Look for strong defenses that can force punts or field goal attempts
• Look for running backs who can move the chains, run clock, and “shorten” the game
• Look for home teams that will get fourth quarter help from boisterous crowds
• Look for weather conditions that will inhibit the opposing favorite’s strength (wind, rain)
• Look for soft pass defenses on opposing favorites that are vulnerable to allowing late scores
• Look for opposing favorites with big leads who may start “looking ahead” to their next game 

If you know personnel and skill sets very well, then some second half dog opportunities will literally jump off the page at you. Raw numbers from Power Ratings or Computer projections don’t tell you which underdog quarterbacks can play from behind, and which become turnover prone when the defense knows passes are coming. They don’t tell you how much high octane passing offenses on favorites are bothered when sustained winds are at 10 mph or higher. And, they can be depressingly blind to intangibles and garbage time realities. 

STRATEGIES FOR FINDING SECOND-HALF FAVORITES

• Look to oppose underdog quarterbacks who are erratic and turnover prone in catch-up mode
• Look to oppose undersized defenses, particularly if “extended fatigue” is in play from prior weeks.
• Look to oppose underdogs with limited capability to shorten the game with ball control
• Look for home teams who love running up the score for their fans or the pollsters
• Look for weather conditions that favor the favorite (windless, heat baking the dog defense)
• Look for stingy favorite defenses who take pride in keeping teams out of the end zone 

Second halves can be very volatile in college football because extremes are so likely to come into play. You’ll see wild shootouts when the dog quarterback is good and both defenses are outmatched. You’ll see one-sided runaways when a mistake-prone quarterback is forced way out of his comfort zone at the worst possible time. If you’re trying to pick team side winners against second half market prices, those are the things you need to be looking for. 

So far we’ve only talked about team sides. Let’s move to Over/Unders… 

STRATEGIES FOR FINDING SECOND HALF “OVERS”

• Look for situations suggesting a lot of passing vs. crappy defenses!
• Look for undersized or shorthanded defenses that are likely to be get exploited
• Look for weather and field conditions that favor offense
• Look for special teams’ speedsters capable of making big plays on kickoff or punt returns
• Look for attacking defensive units capable of setting up cheap points with takeaways 

There’s a tendency for too many casual bettors to expecting scoring in a second half almost all of the time. If a first half was low scoring, they apply “the due theory” in assuming second half points. If it was a high scoring first half, then it seems like neither defense is capable of stopping the other offense. Because the general public prefers to bet Overs, you really have to be careful about betting them yourself for value. Look either for “extremes” that don’t seem to be properly accounted for in potential shootouts, or try to spot those “hidden” points that could come up from special teams returns or short fields off turnovers from a mistake-prone offense.   

STRATEGIES FOR FINDING SECOND HALF “UNDERS”

• Look for superior teams who like to run clock and sit on big leads
• Look for conservative coaches who prefer to punt and play field position
• Look for windy situations that will disrupt passing offenses
• Look for “slow but safe” kick returners who won’t fumble but won’t break any long runs
• Look for “bend but don’t break” defenses who will help the clock run by bending but not breaking 

It can be tough for many bettors to pull the trigger on Unders. In fact, it’s a pretty quick tell as to whether a bettor is “sharp” if you see them betting a college football second half Under. Maybe a “square” bettor will go Under if two run-based Big 10 teams are playing in the mud in a blizzard. But, many will still go Over on the due theory if it’s 6-6 at halftime! 

It’s important for you to remember that the market shades against favorites and Overs because of public betting tendencies. You really need to be picky in those categories yourself, while trying to be more open-minded about dogs and Unders that may be giving you a free point or two instead of taking them away. 

If you’ve talked yourself into an Over in a potential shootout because of a unique tendency you think won’t be properly factored into the line (even with the understanding that the market will be shaded against you) the best advice is to bet EARLY as soon as a number goes up. The public is going to drive that line higher. Bet before the two-point move, not after it! 

On the other hand, if you think a nationally televised game has been misleadingly high scoring in the first half…you may find it valuable to delay your action until after the public has bet. You’ll pick up a free point or two thanks to the public’s tendency to root for points in games they’re watching on TV. 

PREPARATION FOR HALFTIME WAGERING

We’re just two weeks away from the start of the 2014 regular season. Do your preparation now so you can have a good sense already of: 

[box] Which quarterbacks will implode when forced to pass

Which quarterbacks have a proven ability to score in the 2nd half

Which defenses are physical, deep, and great at forcing turnovers

Which defenses are undersized and vulnerable to fatigue

Which coaches love running up the score

Which coaches love running out the clock [/box]

There’s still a lot to learn regarding new starting quarterbacks or head coaches who have stepped up in class from their last job. Evaluate what you can now. Then add to your knowledge base as new information comes to light. 

Second half betting success doesn’t come from off-the-cuff hunches in games involving teams you’ve barely followed. It comes from understanding the dynamics of which skill sets and team characteristics are best or worst suited to second half success in varying conditions.

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Jeff Fogle is a freelance writer living in Austin, Texas. He writes about college and pro football, college and pro basketball, and MLB on his blog StatIntelligence. You can follow Jeff on Twitter @JeffFogle.

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