2014 Heisman Futures
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3 thoughts on “2014 Heisman Futures”
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MAXIMIZE YOUR EDGE
Gurley, Davis, Marshall. Gee, I wonder what conference you are a HOMER of? 🙂
Mariota doesn’t get hurt last year and he would have won it, so I’d say if he doesn’t get hurt this year, he wins it.
Mike Davis has basically no value based on the facts…
Fact #1: QBs have won 12 of the last 14 Heismans
Fact #2: The last 2 RBs to win came from a NC team (USC) and a team that played in the Sugar Bowl the year before and was pre-season ranked #5(Alabama)…They were also traditional powers…SCarolina does not fall into any of these conditions
Fact #3: There are 4 teams in THEIR OWN CONFERENCE that have shorter odds to win the NC than SCar…the oddsmakers, based on their algorithms and probability charts, feel that SCar is a longshot to win the NC
Based on the above, it makes more sense to take a QB from a team with a better chance to win the NC based on the oddsmakers that has longer odds than Mike Davis…now THAT would be value…and that player is Trevor Knight from OU
Now if you think Davis is awesome and is gonna run for 2500 yds and 30 TDs that’s fine…but that is STRICTLY an opinion…I would rather K.I.S.S. and just use the facts…which are a QB is more likely to win than a RB and OU has a better chance of getting to the NC than SCar
If those odds are correct, he is the value play, and I will put a piece down on him to win the Heisman…OU has Baylor and OK St at home and could go 12-0, yet their QB has LONGER odds than a RB from SCar
I think this year there is a better chance a non-QB wins it than other years because we graduated so many great QBs from last year there really aren’t too many ‘franchise type’ QBs in this year’s class. I completely agree no way to they give it to Winston again – he will have to prove me wrong on that. Mariota and Knight would be the two most likely but I don’t quite put them in that league (unless Knight plays every game like he did in the Sugar Bowl, which seems unlikely). Nick Marshall would have been attractive at 33/1, but the marijuana possession really kills it for him – they won’t give the Heisman to a guy busted for weed the very same year no matter what IMO. So I actually think there is a good shot a non-QB wins this year.
Among the backs, I like Gurley more over Davis. He is the better more complete back, and if he stays healthy, his stats will show it and the voters will appreciate it. Davis doesn’t win the trophy even if the Gamecocks WIN the NC, which they won’t with a new QB – not even close. USC will do well to win 11 games – again.
Finally, another pick I like a lot is Miles Jack. This is the year UCLA wins the PAC, I’ll just say it now. They take the South and knock down whoever from the North – Stanford will take a definitive step back this year and so will Oregon, too, continue its decline, small but steady since Chip Kelly left. What is lost in the Miles Jack hype due to his offensive highlight reel type plays last year was what a great LB he was as a true frosh. The kid just made play after play; on par with Anthony Barr, but a freshman. In this kind of year where there isn’t a dominant Cam Newton/Vince Young kind of QB, UCLA wins the Pac and gets into the playoff – Miles Jack will be a big part of it as a defensive leader and plenty of touches on offense (UCLA has a committee of possession backs, but *no* game breakers on the roster – Miles will get his touches). He could have a decent shot and I like 33/1. 🙂