Teams That Are Risky Bets in 2014
Every summer there are many predictions and polls put out about college football that gives fans false hope. The polls are based solely on last season’s accomplishments and what the team has returning.
There are six teams that I picked out of ESPN’s early top-25 that I think are risky bets in 2014. I looked at how high the teams were on the predicted polls and how their schedule was related with that.
Florida State
While the Seminoles are the reigning champs and still have probably the best talent in America, they are still a slight risk. The Seminoles have a tough non-conference schedule with Oklahoma State, Notre Dame, and Florida.
Also, they have Clemson at home and go on the road to Miami.
With all the negative attention surrounding Jameis Winston this offseason, there could also be distractions in the locker room.
Florida State will certainly have a good season, but is a risk because of the factors I explained and the fact that it will likely be heavily favored in most contests.
LSU
The Tigers are on this list for two reasons: schedule and a new quarterback. Les Miles has a very talented roster, but there is uncertainty at the quarterback position.
The spot could be claimed by Anthony Jennings, who struggled against Iowa in the Outback Bowl, going 7-19 passing. Brandon Harris, an incoming true freshman, is also in contention to win the starting job.
LSU starts the year off against Wisconsin in a neutral site game. Their road games include Auburn, Florida, and Texas A&M. Then of course Alabama will be a tough game, but at least it’s at home.
To the exception of the three cupcake games LSU scheduled, the remaining nine games present a difficult road ahead for the Tigers.
Notre Dame
Since Notre Dame isn’t a part of a set conference they have freedom in scheduling opponents. Their schedule next year looks very tough. Some notable games include Michigan, Stanford, North Carolina, @Florida State, @Arizona State, Louisville, and @USC.
The Fighting Irish may have settled their quarterback troubles, but even Peyton Manning would have trouble going through that schedule. Brian Kelly has done an excellent job recruiting, but Notre Dame is too risky to bet high on for 2014.
Georgia
Georgia is on this list for similar reasons that LSU was. A new quarterback, Hutson Mason, takes over for Aaron Murray.
The Bulldogs also have a brutal schedule. A home showdown with Clemson will start the season, then the next week they go on the road to Columbia to take on the Gamecocks.
Other tough games on Georgia’s radar include Tennessee, @Missouri, Florida (neutral site game), and Auburn at home.
UCLA
The Bruins are only on this list because of their schedule and the ridiculous expectations fans have for them this season. The Bruins are expected to compete for a national playoff spot, but have a tough road ahead of them.
UCLA plays Southern Cal, Stanford, and Oregon at home, but have other challenging games on the road. Three of their first four games are on the road against Virginia, Texas, and Arizona State.
While they should likely win these games, any time you go on the road against a team like Texas or Virginia, there could be trouble. Charlie Strong has the Longhorns believing again, and Mike London just pulled in his best recruiting class, landing two 5-stars.
The expectations for UCLA and the reality of their schedule just doesn’t match up in the end.
Texas A&M
This is a team I almost kept off the list, but I think the Aggies will struggle early on at the quarterback position. After Johnny Manziel left early for the NFL Draft, it put the Aggies in a tough position at quarterback. Kyle Allen, an incoming true freshman, has a very realistic chance of winning the job because of the lack of experience at the position.
Even if Allen is named the starter, he has a big test right off the bat. The Aggies start off the season at Williams-Brice against South Carolina. The Gamecocks have a physical defense that will make things tough on whoever is playing under center for A&M.
The rest of the schedule is also tough for Kevin Sumlin’s squad. Some notable games are @Alabama, @Auburn, @Mississippi State, and LSU at home.
Conclusion
These teams are certainly capable of having good seasons, and are regarded highly in the preseason polls for a reason. Factors like new starters at quarterback, and how the schedule looks separates the contenders from the pretenders though. In this case, all six of these teams are risks.
So now we consider Tennessee at home a tough game..?? Really? With a home game vs Troy the week before and no look ahead spot the following week why would home vs Tennessee be a “tough game”…??
Why not just call every game on their schedule “tough” then…??
With all due respect I’m not buying that…
I get where you’re coming from, but with the way Tennessee has set themselves up recruiting, they could be a dangerous team this year. And I know last years game was in Knoxville, but Georgia barely got by in that one. Georgia certainly is capable of beating Tennessee, but that will be a game to keep a close eye on.
I’ve got an article that I’ve been working on that is basically an extension of your article, where I cover a few teams who basically haven’t been very good bets for the last few years. The one team both of us agree on is Notre Dame. Perhaps the most public team in the NCAA. With the exception of a couple years ago when they made their unlikely run to the BCS title game, the Irish has been one of the worst bets in college football. There is a key to betting on them (or not), and I’ll cover it whenever I get around to finishing my article.
I look forward to reading your article!