Iowa Football 2014 – Better, Worse or about the Same?

OFFENSE

I think there’s a lot of hope on the part of Iowa fans — and not unjustified — that the offense will be better than it was a year ago.  This is year three under Greg Davis as offensive coordinator, he should have a second-year starter at QB (Jake Rudock), and collection of players at RB and WR that are better-suited to the style of offense that he wants to run than he had the first few years at Iowa.  

There’s a great deal of continuity between this year’s Iowa offense and last year’s unit — the most notable absent players are TE C.J. Fiedoriwcz (an All-Big Ten talent and 3rd round NFL Draft pick) and OT Brett Van Sloten (a multi-year starter at RT).  Iowa returns Rudock at QB, the majority of their offensive line, and almost all of their production at RB and WR in 2013.  The trick is turning all that continuity and familiarity into increased production — and I think they can do just that. 

The key for Iowa’s offense taking a step forward probably rests with Rudock.  Can he complete more of his passes (he only completed 59% of them last year)?  Can he cut down on his interceptions (he threw 13 last year)?  The idea is that increased familiarity with the playbook, greater continuity with his receivers, and the experience that comes with starting 13 games a season ago and having felt the pressure and seen what defenses are going to throw at him will all combine to allow him to improve his production across the board, which in turn should lead to a more explosive and more productive Iowa offense.  Can he do that?  We’ll find out.  

Iowa caught a big break on offense when LT Brandon Scherff opted to return to school for his senior season. Scherff likely would have been a high draft pick this year had he gone pro; instead, he’ll be protecting Rudock’s blindside and opening holes for Iowa’s bevy of running backs to exploit.  

Iowa returns all of their running backs (notably, burly starter Mark Weisman, speedy change-of-pace back Jordan Canzeri, and talented pass-catcher Damon Bullock) from a season ago and they’ve stayed healthy during spring practice, which should leave Iowa in the wholly unfamiliar position of having actual depth at the RB position.  Needless to say, we’re confused by this prospect and constantly waiting for the other shoe to drop. 

Replacing Fiedorowicz at TE will be difficult, especially in the run blocking game (where Fiedorowicz was an absolute road grader), but Iowa has several talented TEs vying to take his playing time, led by Ray Hamilton, Jake Duzey, and Henry Krieger-Coble.  I think they’ll be able to replace Fiedorowicz’s production and run blocking pretty well.  The most intriguing unit for Iowa’s offense is probably the WRs, where Iowa finally appears to have several speedy talents that might be able to stretch the field and put pressure on opposing defenses.  

DEFENSE

My heart would like to say that they’ll be about the same or better, but my head thinks that will be very, very difficult.  Iowa ranked in the top ten nationally in scoring and total defense (and passing defense) and hitting those heights again will be difficult, especially after losing all three of their star linebackers a year ago.

James Morris, Christian Kirksey, and Anthony Hitchens were the heart and soul of Iowa’s defense, as well as talented and versatile players that could do a good job defending the pass, bottling up the run, or rushing the passer.  All three of them might find themselves on NFL rosters this fall, so replacing talent like that won’t be easy.

Iowa has some very intriguing talent waiting in the wings at LB, notably MLB Quinton Alston (who has waited his turn behind Morris for several seasons) and OLB Reggie Spearman (a tremendous athlete with strong football instincts).  Talent is one thing, though, and Morris, Kirksey, and Hitchens had over 10 years of starting experience between them — replacing that experience will be a tall task.

But Iowa should be strong on the defensive line (particularly at DT, where Louis Trinca-Pasat and Carl Davis should be one of the most fearsome interior combinations in the Big Ten) and the secondary has some quality talent, especially at CB, where Desmond King emerged as a major contributor as a true freshman last year.  His coverage skills were shockingly good for a true freshman, but he was also a strong tackler and firm against the run.  

Iowa needs to find someone else to man the other CB spot, as well as someone to man one of the starting safety spots, but Iowa has typically done an impressive job of filling holes in the secondary.  Defensive backs coach Phil Parker (who’s also the defensive coordinator) has made a career out of finding and developing largely-unheralded talent into very productive and effective players, so there’s not much reason to think he won’t be able to do that again this year.

As I said earlier, ultimately it’s difficult to honestly expect Iowa’s defense to perform at a level as high as they did last year — top 10 rankings in total defense and scoring defense — given the players that they have to replace.  But I still think they’ll be an effective defense and a pretty strong defense.  We might have to settle for rankings in the top 30 rather than the top 10, though. 

Better, worse or about the same as last year?

Well, that is the million-dollar question, isn’t it?  Iowa turned some heads by finishing 8-4 last year, a 4-game improvement on their win total in 2012.  They ended the season with back-to-back wins over Michigan and Nebraska and earned a spot in the Outback Bowl, which certainly exceeded the expectations most folks had (including a lot of Iowa fans, frankly).  

Given the talent Iowa has returning (most of the key players from last year’s 8-4 team) and the favorable schedule (Iowa skips Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, and Penn State and gets their two most difficult divisional opponents, Nebraska and Wisconsin, both at home at Kinnick Stadium), I think matching last year’s 8-4 regular season record is very much attainable.  

In fact, failing to match that record will almost certainly go down as a bitter disappointment.  Can Iowa take a step forward from that 8-4 record and win 9-10 games?  Yes, but that probably depends on Iowa avoiding too many significant injuries, Rudock reaching another level of effectiveness, and the new LBs providing an acceptable replacement for the Morris/Hitchens/Kirksey unit.  

If that happens — and if Iowa is able to avoid stubbing their toe against an opponent that looks inferior on paper (Indiana, Northwestern, and Iowa State have been persistent thorns in Iowa’s side and Maryland is an unknown quantity in their first year in the Big Ten)… then, yeah, this could definitely be a 10-win season for Iowa.  

My gut is saying 9-3 right now — I think Iowa drops one of their two games against Nebraska or Wisconsin, one of their B1G road games, and then another game somewhere else (I’m already wary of that September trip to Pitt; Iowa’s struggled in non-conference games on the road in the past).  But who knows — maybe by early September I’ll be more bullish on Iowa and dreaming of a berth in the Big Ten Championship Game in Indianapolis in early December.

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Ross Binder of Black Heart Gold Pants provided the information for our Iowa Football 2014 Spring Wrap Up. For more Hawkeye football information, commentary and analysis, you can follow Ross on Twitter @RossWB.

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