If there is one thing that I took out of this past season’s BCS bowl games, it’s that strength of schedule played a very big part in the outcome of these games. The strength of schedule should play a larger role in your handicapping when it comes to the bluebloods who are playing after January 1st.

First, there isn’t as much separation between these teams as we sometimes see in the minor bowls. They are all good or they wouldn’t be in the position they are, and playing for higher stakes. They’ve all had exceptional seasons. And unlike some of the minor bowls, we know that these teams are going to come to play.

Strength of schedule vs the point spread

In the case of the BCS bowls this past year, the point spread was your worst enemy if you were betting the favorites. Alabama, Stanford, Baylor, Ohio State and Florida State were all favorites. And all failed to cover the spread or lost outright.

But all of these favorites had one thing in common. They all had pretty much the easier road to get to their destination. When you look at these teams and what they did throughout the season, it’s better if you don’t get caught up in the strength of conference as much as each team’s overall strength of schedule.

Every team that failed to cover came from a stronger overall conference than their opponents. This telling stat alone should open our eyes and make us look at the bigger picture going forward.  For the favorites, the road to get there was a well paved smooth road, whereas their opponents had it a little harder, sometimes much harder, either within their conference or playing a better non-conference schedule, or both.

Strength of schedule brings teams closer together

Although we can probably find a few examples over the years where the team with the weaker schedule covered the spread, more often than not a better SOS will bring the underdog and favorite closer together. Especially with the spread. And of course the bigger the point spread the better it is for us if we like the dogs.

Here are the schedule comparisons for this past season’s BCS bowl opponents:

Ohio State vs Clemson

Ohio State played just one team on the road with a winning record all year. And that was just a one point win over a 7-5 Michigan team. Their only other road game against an opponent with a winning record was a neutral site game against Michigan State in which they lost.

Clemson on the other hand had to start out the season playing Georgia. A team that was much better at the beginning of the season before all of the injuries, and the Tigers won that game. They also played two bowl teams on the road, Syracuse and Maryland, along with another very tough SEC opponent South Carolina and the number one team in the country Florida State.

So overall Clemson had a much tougher road to get to their BCS bowl than OSU. And despite OSU having the better coach, the Tigers were just a more battle tested team. And it showed. They came out and played a full 60 minute game against OSU with no quite. The true sign of a battle tested team.

UCF vs Baylor

Baylor had about as easy a schedule as you could get on their way to winning the Big 12. It was also a season where everything else also fell right for the Bears.

Texas was still down and playing without their starting QB, OU was playing with their first rookie QB in 6 years and rebuilding on defense, and KSU was also rebuilding on defense and starting a rookie QB.

Throw in a schedule in which Baylor didn’t have to play their first road game until October 12th, and you’ve got a great scenario for winning the Big 12. They were a fresh, injury free team going into conference play. But their soft schedule ended up hurting them down the stretch. And after getting drilled by Okie State and barely getting by TCU, they had to hold on by their fingernails to win the conference. So Baylor’s beginnings were much better than their ending.

On the other side UCF played a pretty tough schedule for an AAC team. They had to go to Penn State early in the season. Never an easy game. And also had to play South Carolina as part of their non-conference schedule. Add to that a weekday ESPN game at Louisville and you can see that this team had just as tough, if not a tougher road to a BCS bowl than Baylor did.

On top of that, they were also getting 17 points, based mainly on Baylor’s early rep. So it may have been a minor surprise that UCF won, but it wasn’t a big surprise that they covered that big number.

Michigan State vs Stanford

This was probably the hardest BCS game to cap because of the similar styles of both teams. But even though Stanford came from the stronger overall conference, they were a team that didn’t exactly have a brutal schedule.

Their non-conference schedule was pretty much a joke other than their annual tilt with Notre Dame. However Stanford had the home field advantage against both the Irish and an Oregon team who was breaking in a new head coach. And they also got conference runnerup Arizona State at home in their regular season game.

Their only tough regular season road games were against Utah, Oregon St. and USC, and Stanford lost 2 out of 3 of those games. So other than their win at home over the Ducks, they really didn’t have a quality win all season until they got to their conference championship game, a game in which Stanford was the underdog against what was probably a slightly overrated ASU team who hadn’t been in a position to go to a BCS bowl in a long time.

You could have made just as good or even a slightly better argument for a Michigan State team who had to play Notre Dame, Nebraska and Ohio State on the road, and won 2 out of 3 of those games while knocking OSU out of the unbeaten ranks and winning the Big 10 Championship.

Overall it was pretty even between these teams. But Stanford’s road losses against a Utah team with a losing record and a coachless USC team were probably more telling than anything about this team. Bottom line is by performance alone, Stanford should have never been favored over MSU in their BCS game. But all things being equal, the better conference almost always gets the nod with a tight line.

Alabama vs Oklahoma

By far the biggest upset of the BCS bowl games. But if you go by each team’s schedules, maybe not as big of a surprise as it appeared.

Bama had about as easy of a road (by SEC standards) to make it to a BCS game as you could possibly have. They played just 4 true road games all year, and one neutral site game against Virginia Tech.

If you take their easy road win against UK out of the equation, Bama outscored their other 3 road opponents, all quality teams, by an average score of just 32-28. So Bama wasn’t exactly overwhelming this year.

OU on the other hand played a pretty difficult schedule by Big 12 standards. They had to play the cream of the conference crop Baylor, KSU, Texas and Okie State on the road. And also had a tough early season road game against Notre Dame. A team who had just come off a win against BCS Bowl bound Michigan State.

So even though it would have been hard to pick a Big 12 team to cover at a neutral site against a top SEC team, looking back at the point differential in this game, and given Bama’s road woes, the 17 point spread was a pretty big handicap to give the Sooners.

But I admit myself that it can be very easy to get caught up in the media hype. Such as Bama wanting to give McCarron a good going out party, the game being played in SEC country, and Bama wanting to right their previous loss against Auburn.

Even the best cappers have trouble turning a blind eye to this kind of hype. But it shows us that we all need to dig deeper and have a little more tunnel vision when capping these games, and to try our best to stay away from the media and general public perception of a game. Especially a BCS game.

Florida State vs Auburn

The story here was “could a team who had an easy schedule, but blew everybody away in almost every game all season, cover a double-digit spread against a team who has played a tougher schedule?”

The answer was a BIG no.

Something we found out is that schedule meant something coming into this game. It brought two teams who were double digits apart on the spread much closer together. In fact FSU was fortunate to come back and win this game.

You have to ask yourselves, if these two teams had traded conferences and you put FSU in the SEC, would or could they have gone undefeated against the likes of Texas A&M, LSU and Missouri on the road, and Bama at home? Maybe, but we wouldn’t have seen those 40 and 50 point margins of victory.

And when you play a tougher schedule like Auburn did, it’s also hard to stay injury free. Nothing is quite as dangerous as a team who has been battle tested, and also has made it through the season relatively unscathed, and then finds themselves as double-digit dogs in their bowl game with nothing to lose.

FSU was in some ways in the same situation as Baylor. They beat their cupcake opponents by some outrageous scores that got the public and the books attention. They had maybe one quality win all year (at Clemson), which was enough to convince the majority out there that they were worthy of their big point spreads.

But the lesson learned here is it’s not always about the wins, but the journey to get there.

Strength of schedule conclusion 

The 2014 season should be an interesting one with the new playoff format. But I look at those 3 games the same as I do the BCS games from the previous seasons. Strength of schedule and being battle tested will play a big part in the outcome of these games. And if this past season was any indication, perhaps even more so than what conference each of these teams come from. Something to file away for this coming season.

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