2013 was a great year for college football in the PAC 12. The conference sent 9 teams to bowl games and came away with a 6-3 bowl record. The conference was as deep as it’s ever been in 2013 and a record six teams ended up ranked in the final Associated Press poll. Top to bottom it was arguably the best conference in the country.

The conference has always been known for its high flying offenses and NFL caliber offensive skill players and last year was no exception. PAC 12 schools averaged 33.24 points per game in 2013, which was up nearly 3 points over 2012’s number (30.42 ppg).

However PAC 12 defenses had been closing the gap in recent years. Despite 2013’s higher scoring output, conference defenses were only allowing 27.80 points per game overall, which was barely higher than 2012’s 27.73 ppg and last year half of the conference D’s were ranked in the top 40 in scoring defense.

But as I look ahead to 2014 that is all about to change.

Defensive Exodus

The PAC 12 loses a lot of defensive talent and experience heading into 2014. According to Phil Steele, PAC 12 teams return 72 defensive starters (6 per team) as opposed to 86 offensive starters (7.17 per team).

However consider a few of the defensive studs that will be leaving: 2012 & 2013 PAC 12 Defensive Player of the Year Will Sutton (ASU), All-American’s Shane Skov & Ed Reynolds (Stanford), Anthony Barr (UCLA) and Deone Bucannon (Washington State) are just a few of the many PAC 12 defensive standouts that won’t be returning in 2014.

In all, 19 of the 25 all-conference defensive players from 2013 will be gone, including 10 of 12 from the first team. That is a massive exodus of defensive talent.

In addition, half of the schools in the league (Cal, Oregon, Stanford, Washington, UCLA & USC) will be replacing their defensive coordinators.

High(er) Flying Offenses in 2014

Pac-12 offenses are going to be loaded in 2014. As many as 10 starting QBs will return (Utah starting QB Travis Wilson’s status is still questionable), along with 3.33 offensive linemen per team.

And we’re talking about some of the best QBs in the country. Heisman hopefuls Marcus Mariota (Oregon) & Brett Hundley (UCLA); second team all-conference Taylor Kelly (ASU) and honorable mentions Jared Goff (Cal), Sean Mannion (Oregon State) & Cody Kessler (USC). Overall the league will return their top 7 passers.

Last year 8 PAC 12 offenses averaged over 30 points per game and 10 averaged over 29 points per game. I look for these offensive numbers to increase in 2014.

2014 PAC 12 Totals = OVER

In the regular season last year, PAC 12 teams went under the posted total in 72 games as opposed to going over in 63 (53.33%). Only Arizona State (8-4 O/U), Colorado (7-3 O/U), Oregon (6-5 O/U) and Oregon State (6-5 O/U) went over the total more then they went under in 2013.

The average posted total for games involving PAC 12 teams was 60.28.

Looking at the 2014 returning production for each team, only Arizona, Colorado and Washington return a higher percentage of total tackles then they do total offense. Arizona and Washington are the 2 schools replacing their QB and Colorado’s returning starting QB, Sefo Leafau, didn’t start until the 6th game of the season.

Overall 8 PAC 12 schools will return more than 80% of their total offense from 2013, 9 schools will return more than 70% and 10 schools will return over 60%. Again, only Arizona (3.05%) and Washington (23.36%) return less than 60% of their total offense from last year.

Conclusion

The PAC 12 lost a lot of defensive talent and experience from last year and PAC 12 offenses are going to be loaded in 2014, especially at the quarterback position.

You combine that with all the changes within the defensive coaching ranks (the top 5 scoring D’s in the league will have new DC’s this year), and you can’t help but believe that PAC 12 offenses are going to go off in 2014.

Of course it is all about the posted number, but I am betting that early in the season we’ll see a lot of totals posted that are being based on last year’s numbers and will offer significant value.

At least that is my theory and I’m sticking to it 🙂

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