Disclaimer:  I’ve had an awful season this year, and just had my worst week of the season.  In no way, shape or form should I tell you much less tell anyone where to bet their money this weekend.  And yes, my posted plays here really did go 0-10 last week  You’ve been warned:

 

YTD: 19-35 (35.2%) -45.48 units

	Wins	Loses	Units
NCAAF Week 1	1	3	-4.50
NCAAF Week 2	0	3	-6.66
NCAAF Week 3	4	1	9.70
NCAAF Week 4	0	3	-12.20
NCAAF Week 5	0	0	0.00
NCAAF Week 6	2	3	-3.63
NCAAF Week 7	1	1	-0.30
NCAAF Week 8	4	2	5.45
NCAAF Week 9	0	4	-13.25
NCAAF Week 10	0	0	0.00
NCAAF Week 11	4	3	1.90
NCAAF Week 12	0	0	0.00
NCAAF Week 13	3	2	2.21
NCAAF Week 14	0	10	-24.20

 

ACC Championship Game:

Duke vs Florida State

(FSU -29, Over / Under 62)

This year might be the most interesting ACC title game we’ve ever had, we’ve got a Duke team who won 10 games for the first time ever going against a top ranked FSU team.  For the first time our league title game will directly impact the National Championship race, and the fact that this contest features two teams that are well-coached and fun to watch is just a bonus.  While FSU is rightfully a heavy favorite to win, does the game over any value from a betting perspective?  I’m going to look at the game from a few different angles to try and find out.

Line Value:

My three top systems for measuring line value have FSU favored by 22, 29 & 41 points, which averages out to a -30.5 line.  This indicates the tiniest bit of line value on FSU here, but it doesn’t cross any key numbers which means that this isn’t a very good reason to back either side.  My projected total is 58.5, which gives a bit of value to the under.  These two teams are a combined 19-4-1 ATS this year, so Vegas and bettors have done a poor job at correctly valuing either team.  FSU is 10-2 to the over while Duke is only 5-7 in going over the number.  Duke has been a double-digit dog twice this season (1-1 SU & ATS), while FSU has been favored by double-digits in every game this year (10-2 ATS, 12-0 SU). Advantage:  Slight advantage to the under.

Perception:

The view from the land of college football leading into this match-up is largely one of a mismatch, that FSU is the supremely talented juggernaught and that Duke is still Duke, an undermanned side who has jinked and juked their way past sleepwalking opponents all season to somehow arrive here in Charlotte.  Most people haven’t seen Duke play very much this season, they haven’t realized how good this Duke team has been.

Though they aren’t the most talented team in the league, this is a balanced offense that is relentlessly competitive team.   6 of Duke’s 10 wins are by double digits, and only 1 of their losses was by more than 10 (a 24 point loss to Georgia Tech in September).  Duke also had their best defense in years, putting 3 starters on the first team All-ACC squad selected last week (FSU by comparion, only had 1).  In a 4-TD plus game I’m always at least a little interested in getting a scrappy underdog that believes in themselves and has worked hard to prove doubters wrong all season.  While FSU has put up astounding numbers all season long, they’ve largely done it against overmatched opponents who had no hope of competing with them and little to play for (only played two teams this year with more than 7 wins) Advantage:  Duke

Match-up

(I look at match-ups in a game like this a little differently, due to the size of the spread.  If I say that FSU has an advantage in offense or defense, I mean an advantage relative to the spread i.e. more than 14 points of an advantage on that side of the ball)

When Duke has the ball:

Running:

Duke gets a ton of credit for this season for me, they reinvented their offense this offseason after losing their 2nd straight NFL quarterback (Sean Renfree).  Duke has been able to get away from what was nearly a pass-exclusive offense over the past 5 years and installed one that is much more balanced (57% of plays were runs, 58th nationally).  While Duke doesn’t have a very explosive ground game (65th in my big rushing play numbers) they do a good job of grinding it out at 4.5 ypc and only 14 fumbles all season long.  Duke has played 4 top 25 rush defenses by ypc this season and went 3-1 vs them (VT, Memphis, GT & Wake Forest) though they weren’t able to hit their average point total (32.6) in any of those games.

FSU is the 7th ranked run D by yards per carry this season, and my 8th ranked D in explosive rushing plays allowed.  Duke does a good job of mixing packages and looks to create space in the running game, but FSU has great athletes all over the field that are really good at making plays in space and preventing plays from going for big yardage.  Duke’s run game is ultimately mediocre, and I believe that it gets shut down at the point of attack more often than not here.  Minor advantage: FSU

Passing:

As long as Duke has David Cutcliffe they are going to be a solid passing team, and the fact that they were able to seamlessly rotate QB’s this season (Boone & Connette) says a ton about Cutcliffe and his ability to create solid passing attacks seemingly from scratch.  Duke ranked in the mid 40’s in both my QB & WR numbers, (63.6%, 21-14 TD-INT ratio) and once again used the passing game as their primary weapon in consistenly hitting big plays.  But in looking at the numbers, I see something that gives me serious concern about their ability to throw the ball Saturday:  Duke only played one top 50 defense in passer rating all season, a stat Florida State ranks 2nd in.  Also, while Duke has only given up 14 sacks all season, they haven’t faced very many powerful pass rushes:  The Devils have only faced two top 40 defenses in sacks all season, and those were the only two games all season where they were held under 20 points per game.  While FSU’s pass rush has been slightly down all season (31st nationally in sacks), this is an elite pass defense that I expect to give Duke major trouble when they are forced to throw the ball.  Major advantage: Florida State

When Florida State has the ball:

Running:

FSU has one of the most diverse and powerful rushing attacks in the country.  They use several backs with varying running styles to wear down opposing defenses.  While FSU hasn’t been a very run heavy team this season (only 55% of their plays are runs, which is surprising considering they are ahead by more than 2 scores much more often than they aren’t) they are very effective on the ground; they rank #10 in my explosive running plays rankings as well as #10 in my yards per carry numbers.  Duke has been relatively solid against the run, ranking #36 in my explosive running plays allowed (a year after really struggling in this statistic) and allowing 4.2 yards per carry (#58th nationally).  Duke has only seen one top 25 rushing attack all season, (Georgia Tech in week 3) so it’s a little difficult to say how well they will match-up here but this is a major step up in opponent run game for the Devils.  Advantage:  Florida State

Passing:

Florida State has the likely Heisman winner at QB and my top ranked passing game relating to effeciency.  The Noles have a stable of huge WR’s and do a great job of creating 1v1 match-ups that they can exploit all over the field.  I’ve been amazed watching FSU how often Winston is throwing to wide open wide receivers.  I’m not trying to undermine his performance this season, but it’s shocking how effortless their passing attack seems.  A big part of this is that you just can’t afford to double-team anyone in this passing attack, as all the wide outs (and the TE O’Leary) can hurt you on any play.  Duke has had a mediocre pass defense (#47 in my pass defense rankings) but has paid the cost for their aggressive coverage (15 INTs #15 nationally).  The Devils rank #93 in my explosive pass D rankings, and have allowed 7.3 yards per attempt (71st nationally).  Duke has only played one top 30 passing team as measured by passing effeciency (Miami, after they lost two of their most important weapons in the passing game), so they may struggle here if their secondary continues to struggle to make plays in isolation, which they will be tested with early and often.  The main concern here is if Winston is showing any ill-effects of his recent brush with the law and national controversy, but as his name has been cleared   Advantage: Florida State

Conclusion:

To say that I expect Florida State to leave Charlotte with an ACC title and a berth in the National Title game shouldn’t surprise anyone, but I actually expect the Seminoles to have a fairly easy time doing it.  While Duke has had an amazing season, they have only played 1 top 40 team by my power rankings (Miami) and that was a team that had been bit hard by the injury bug at the time of their match-up.  I just feel that this is too much of a step up for a Duke team who got destroyed in this match-up last season (48-7 in Tallahasee).  In my key metrics that correlate strongly to ATS success, Florida State ranks in the top 6 nationally in each of my 6 strongest statistics.  The Seminoles are a covering machine, and will be very focused here now that their spot in the National Title game is assured with a victory.

I also look at this as a spot where Jimbo Fisher and FSU will be gunning for style points to clinch the Heisman for Winston and to cement their status as title game favorites.  Duke will enjoy a bit of crowd backing from being such huge underdogs and playing in their home state, and may get some early juice if FSU is a bit nervous in such a big moment.  But football is a game of match-ups, and FSU just has too many match-up advantages on the field for me to expect them to struggle for long.  Florida State has had three “statement” games on National TV and won them all convincingly (41-13 @ Pitt, 51-14 @ Clemson, 41-14 vs Miami) and I expect them to do the same here.  Florida State 55, Duke 17

Championship Week plays:

3 units — Florida State Seminoles -29 -108

2 units — Florida State Seminoles Team Total Over 46 -110

2 units — Utah St Aggies +3 -113

1 unit — Utah St Aggies ML +125

3 units — Missouri Tigers -1 +101

2 units — Bowling Green Falcons +3 -105 

1 unit — Bowling Green Falcons ML +140