College Football Week # 12 – Early Leans & Thoughts
Here is a quick email exchange between Pez and I discussing a few games that stood out to us right after the lines came out yesterday. Lemme know what you guys think.
Sabert – Buffalo: Have them being favored by 5 on a neutral, so adjusting for homefield and Toledo having some extra time, I still don’t see how Buffalo should be getting 4.5.
Pez – I got Buffalo +3 on a neutral, but with the better D. which I always like: better D + points.
Sabert – Marshall: Tulsa is really bad and they have nothing to play for anymore. They just got blown out by ECU. Marshall in a bit of a letdown spot, but their defense has typically been playing surprisingly well.
Pez – Very disappointed I passed on Marshall last week and ECU too, who was playing Tulsa. Tulsa is terrible this year.
Sabert – Washington: Wrong team is favored here. UCLA could be in a letdown spot. Washington finally got thru the tough part of their schedule.
Pez – Disagree. UCLA is every bit as good as UW. My numbers have this game nearly dead even, but UCLA has played 5 of 9 games on the road as opposed to UW playing 6 of 9 at home.
UCLA cannot afford to look ahead to ASU next week because they already have two losses and would be out of the south race if they lose. UW has zero conference title chances.
Both teams lost to Stanford & Oregon. UW’s only win over a BCS conference school is Arizona in Seattle whereas UCLA has beaten Nebraska and Arizona both on the road. UW has not been a very good away team under Sarkisian.
Sabert – Kentucky: Lean UK here. They should be able to score on Vandy I think, just not sure how much. UK has a decent defense, Mizzou is just a completely different animal.
Pez – Vandy could be in a letdown spot too after last week’s big win over the Gators.
Sabert – Va Tech: Not sure that Maryland scores at all here. Va Tech is in a let down spot, but their defense is very good and offense may be finding some rhythm.
Pez – I am not a big Logan Thomas fan but I was pretty impressed with how well he played last week against Miami. Agree that Mary should struggle to score so will be interested in seeing what total they put up for this game.
Sabert – BC: Think this is a double digit win for BC at home.
Pez – NC State sucks this year so cannot disagree. Although the Duke final score was very misleading.
Sabert – Cincinnati: Think the wrong team is favored again. UC has played no one, but hasn’t really laid a dud yet. Rutgers has a ton of injuries.
Pez – Neither team has beaten anyone. I don’t know enough about either team to have an opinion at this point.
Sabert – UCF: UCF still needs style points – they should blow out Temple. They hit the 40s, meaning Temple needs to be in mid 20s.
Pez – I believe UCF just needs to win out and they get the AAC’s BCS birth, so don’t think they need style points. Could also be a letdown spot for them after last week’s big game against Houston. Of course Temple is really bad so it may not matter.
Sabert – Purdue: Purdue sucks, but Penn State really isn’t that great either. Not sure they deserve to be 3 TD favs over much of anyone.
Pez – Agree. Penn State offense has really struggled past two weeks against Illinois & Minnesota. Not exactly top level D’s.
Florida at South Carolina Week # 12
Sabert – South Carolina: Florida has quit – can’t see them getting up for this one, specially a night game in Columbia.
Pez – I’m always cautious when going against a good D, but Gators have had so many injuries and their offense is so bad that South Carolina has to be the only consideration here.
Sabert – Michigan: Nebraska beat them because they could get after Gardener. Not sure if we see Northwestern able to do the same thing.
Pez – BLUE SUCKS & so does Gardner. I don’t want anything to do with them after they screwed my parlay this past week.
Sabert – Georgia: Have this line being pretty accurate, but Auburn has been overvalued from beating up on crap teams. UGA is a different beast.
Pez – Agree and this was one of a few games that jumped out at me too. UGA defense isn’t very good though.
Sabert – S Bama: Think Navy is giving too many points to a team that can score and is coming off of a bye.
Pez – I have no clue about SBC schools. Haven’t touched them all year.
Sabert – Stanford: May be a letdown spot for Stanford here so gotta look into that, but this USC team has been getting overvalued for beating up on crappy defenses.
Pez – Agreed. As you like to say, Cardinal are a different beast. Letdown is a serious consideration though. However I doubt very much USC could go 4 quarters w/ a focused Stanford. Cardinal also could eventually jump Ohio State in the BCS and would have an outside shot at the National Championship if they win out and either FSU or Bama stumbles, so style pints won’t hurt them.
Sabert – USF: They are playing a new QB that actually looked really good in his first start. Coming off of a bye so more time for them to prep.
Pez – Yeah, Memphis favored on the road? Definitely a game to dig deeper.
Sabert – Texas State: Arky State is coached very poorly. Texas State isn’t an AWFUL team. Need to look into it more.
Pez – SBC
Sabert – FIU: Also starting a different QB that has looked halfway decent in the game I saw him in. FIU defense isn’t too shabby either; better than UTEPs. FIU played a much tougher SOS.
Pez – UTEP is terrible. That’s about all I know about these two teams.
Pez – A few that stood out to me:
Cal +3 ……… yeah they suck, but CU favored is just such an anomaly that it caught my eye. HA! I actually have the game more or less even, so I guess 3 in Boulder really isn’t too obscene. Got to think both teams will be fully focused since they both know this is their only chance at a conference win this season.
Texas +3 ……. Texas at home getting points. I think I have fell into this trap several times before, but Texas at home getting points …..
Arizona -13. Wazzou is garbage. Arizona and Carey will run all over them. Should easily score 40+ points.
23 thoughts on “College Football Week # 12 – Early Leans & Thoughts”
Leave a Reply
MAXIMIZE YOUR EDGE
The Hottest team in college football and you guys didnt even mention them? Kansas State!! 5-0 the last 5 ATS. K-State giveing up 10.5 to TCU this saturday. TCU offense not all that good. K-State may very well cover this double digit number as they are on a roll at this time.
As usual we agree to disagree on some of these leans, but that sometimes helps in selection process.
Texas should be getting a few points, NO more than 3 as the Cowboys will have a Great chance of beating Texas on their home soil this year….IMHO.
Sooners giveing up way to many points, even to Iowa State.
Tulsa is worse than Bad and Nothing to play for, as its Over for the Hurricanes.
Doug, I would check the status of OSU WR Josh Steawrt this week. He left the game in pain with an ankle sprain and is questionable for this week. He was 1st team Big 12 last year and AA candidate this year. And about 40% of their offense including being one the leading special teams returners in the country this season. One or two plays by him could be the difference in a tight game. But if he can’t go….
Geat concept (discussing early spreads that look out of wack).
The screamer for me was Hou +17 to a marginal and possibly overrated Louisville. The line has come down a little. I realize it may be difficult to stay up after losing the last two, but this does not look like a 3 score dog. I was able to get 17 late last night ( couldn’t resist).
Some spreads that stood out to me.
1) Buffalo – I jumped on this at +4.5. I have Buffalo favored by 2 on a neutral field.
2) Houston +16 at Louisville. I really like this Houston team but could be a letdown spot after a very emotional loss at UCF. I have this game at -11.
3) Kentucky +13. A bit of an overreaction here and Kentucky can move the ball. I have this line at -7.
4) Texas Tech +27 – 4 touchdown favorite? Texas Tech actually has an offense unlike Oklahoma. I think this number should be closer to -17.5.
Anyone looking at Illinois +32?
jimdale & Seth, I agree about Houston and that was a line that caught my eye, but my first thought was very similar to what Seth said in terms of this being a possible let down spot after that UCF loss.
I have been looking to go against Ohio State the last few weeks but luckily I have avoided it. With their weak schedule they definitely seem to be doing as much as possible to put up style points, so I cannot back Illinois here. Buckeyes will score 50+.
Texas Tech is definitely a possibility as a backdoor cover with Baylor stuck in a sandwich game this week. Baylor hasn’t played a good passing team all year. My only worry is how badly worn down TT’s defense is at this point in the season. Which was why I was all over KSU last week. But given this many points on a neutral field and TT now coming into the game with nothing to lose, the Raiders may not be a bad play. Let’s see if this line continues to rise.
GS, you gotta figure that TT is going to put up more than 12 points here … HA!!! Also, this is a neutral field, not in WACKO! Also got to imagine Baylor might be in a slight let down spot after that OU beatdown they administered. TT is at least on my radar.
To me, this is really helpful. The live chat is great, but I think this type of exchange is more helpful to me. There are many times I have a lean on a certain game and no one here picks it one way or the other. Having insight as to how you view as many games as possible is very useful. I like knowing why a game is not a play as much as why it is a play for each of you.
And thanks. Saturday’s Edge has helped make last season and this one more profitable than it would have been otherwise. You have helped me avoid some losers and reconsider some that turned out to be winners.
Thanks for the great comment Kenneth. I love to see and hear that we are providing enough useful information and insight to help as many as possible have a winning season.
Sabert usually sends me an email every Sunday night with his early leans and I shoot him a quick reply. This was the first time I thought to publish it, sorry for the 11 week delay. LOL!
GS and I usually have several email exchanges each week about certain games, so I will see if I can copy & paste some of those exchanges into a helpful post later in the week.
Yes TT has an offense unlike the Sooners, but TT defense is terrible at Best. Baylor puts up about 70 here, ya think TT can score 40? I dont.
Yes GoSooners we will have to wait to see if the OSU Cowboys are at least at Full strength come saturday. Texas at home catching a few points without OSU’s best receiver would be a nice home dog in this spot.
Doug, I agree. It’s either Texas or nothing for me this week. But I lean the Horns. What is the total going to be for Baylor/TT… 90?
Really liked the head to head on games. Thanks
This article is a great idea and a nice way to generate some conversation on early leans.
Would make a great weekly column!
Guys, if there is any FBS team for Penn State to be laying 3 TD’s to it is Purdue. The Boilers are one of the worst Big Ten teams in all my years of watching the conference. They have put up a robust 31 points in 5 league games including 17 in the first 3 quarters of conference games. Penn State is battling depth issues right now, but they have not quit. I am not saying Penn State is the play, but in no way can you take Purdue.
HAHA – Maggiore, choose between taking Purdue or FIU. You have to choose one…
That’s like choosing between a kick in the nuts or a punch in the face. HAHA…At least FIU has a win over a (somewhat) FBS team in USM. Purdue has 17 first half road points all year….I’m telling you, this team is as bad as the old Northwestern (Pre Barnett) and Wisconsin (Pre Barry) teams.
My line on the game is Toledo -5. I just took Buffalo small at +6. All things being equal and the 3 points I’ll give Toledo for homefield advantage, Buffalo’s +14 in turnover margin has been big for this team covering their spreads this season. Just look at Houston. Statistically they are a very mediocre team, and below average on yards allowed on defense, but their TO Margin is +17. That’s huge..Of course I’m counting on Buffalo continuing to cause and take advantage of Toledo mistakes to get this cover. If they can do it they more than likely cover this spread or win outright. So in my opinion this game is all about TO margin and if Buffalo can handle the Glass Bowl, which is the biggest homefield advantage in the MAC..
GoSooners that total will most likely be the Highest Total in College football, maybe the ALL time record!!
Pez will be the only one lookin to go under……
Texas catching a FG at home will be hard to dismiss. The only way that i can have the Shorthorns as if OSU receiver cant go. I see he is still questionable. Sources tell me that he is going to play. If he is not close to 100% that very well could be the difference in this contest.
Iowa State catching all those points at the Sooners is looking better all the time to me.
Ohio State And Baylor will be looking for ALL the style points they can muster this saturday for sure. I am not a fan of Any chalk but in this case i might have Ohio State and Baylor both on the style point theroy, maybe.
I’m going under on principle. LOL!
I heard Art Briles asked Jerry Jones to add a 3rd digit to the scoreboard…ha!
Doug, if Josh Stewart can go I might possibly consider OSU in this game. The more I look at it the more I kind of lean OSU. What throws me off on this game though is OSU has basically played no one. Texas has at least played Ole Miss, BYU and OU. But the problem is the only one of those games they’ve won is against a very overrated OU team. So this is a tough one to cap.
GoSooners i like OSU a Tiny little bit.
I think our best out in this contest is to hope that Stewart Cant go, and then those 3 football points and the home field Shorthorns will get a play out of me.
K-State will probably be my biggest bet again this week.
South Carolina is a solid play i do think, as the Gators are kind sorta the walking wounded at this time. With all those injuries the line has stayed solid makes me think something is up as the number should be going up??
Pez as you know i was only kidding about your unders….Principal is a different matter………..lol