Week 8 brought a bounce back week for myself, with a 4-2 record against the number including an outright victory with a solid doggie (South Carolina at +7.5) and a couple of wins on some totals plays.  We were actually a late Texas Tech frontdoor cover away from going 5-1, but it’s difficult to complain about the losses in a winning week.

Apologies for the lateness of the weekly thread, I was very busy all week with business and was unable to sit down and put my football related thoughts together.  Write-ups will be much shorter than normal in the interest of time.  All of my plays that I don’t post can be found here.  As always, good luck!

Overall:  12-17 -15.86 units

NCAAF Week 1	1	3	-4.56
NCAAF Week 2	0	3	-6.66
NCAAF Week 3	4	1	9.34
NCAAF Week 4	0	3	-12.20
NCAAF Week 5	0	0	0.00
NCAAF Week 6	2	3	-3.63
NCAAF Week 7	1	2	-3.60
NCAAF Week 8	4	2	5.45

Week 9 Plays

4 units — Oregon St Beavers +4.5 -110

 3 units — Boston College Eagles +7 -115

2 units — Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets -10 -115

2 units — Clemson Tigers -16.5 -105 

3 units — Oregon Ducks -14 1H -110

Week 9 Plays w/ write-ups

3 units — Boston College Eagles +7 -115

This is a game that I wish I was around to play earlier in the week at +10 or even +7.5, but getting a TD is still worth a normal sized play from me.  We get a BC team who matches up very well (and is coming off a bye) coming against a UNC team that went all-in versus Miami on national TV last week only to come up just short.  Boston College is a great team to back as a dog, as they have solid line play and have done a great job in establishing the run and sticking with it (#7 ranked unit in run play %).  Even when they do need to throw the ball, they have a 4 year starter at QB in Chase Rettig and a legitimate downfield threat in Alex Amidon.  UNC has my 83rd ranked run defense, so I feel like they have a really hard time getting the Eagles off the field consistently (NC ranks #107 nationally in 3rd down defense).

In short, I feel like were getting a touchdown with the team who has more confidence and more to play for at this point.  If UNC is up and covering in the 4th quarter, they will struggle to run out the clock as they have my 120th ranked rushing attack so far this season.   This is also a lookahead spot for UNC, as they face arch-rival NC State next week in Raleigh.  Everything here points to a close game, and I’m glad to take the points with the Eagles when I think they win outright.  Boston Collge 31, North Carolina 28

2 units — Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets -10 -115

Sometimes you find a team that is a total mess and go against them every week, and at this point in the year that team for me is Virginia.  This team has been a dumpster fire all season, and is coming off of a very demoralizing game that saw them blow a 22 point lead to Duke at home.  Duke is a much improved program, but losing to them still carries a very negative stigma in ACC land.  Playing at home this week may actually be a detriment to UVA, as they don’t match up very well (95th ranked run D) and if they struggle early on it’s very possible that what figures to be a sparse Charlottesville crowd will turn on them.

Georgia Tech comes into this game very confident, having beaten a Syracuse team that was playing very well 56-0 in Atlanta last week.  The Jackets added some dangerous explosiveness to their offense by working in a 2nd quarterback in Justin Thomas, and finally got more consistent performance from Vad Lee.  The Jackets surprisingly solid defense (ranked #16 in total yards a game vs FBS foes) is going against a UVA offense that just doesn’t do anything really well (#103 in explosive plays, #89 in red zone offense and #100 on 3rd down).

I see a solid GT team that has their best defense in a couple of seasons going against a UVA team that is rudderless and coming off of allowing 35 straight points to Duke.  Mike London is on a very hot seat, and the Cavaliers haven’t shown like they feel like fighting for him.  I’ll lay the DD on the road with an offense that will run the ball all day and demoralize an already down Cavalier squad.  Georgia Tech 35, Virginia 17

2 units — Clemson Tigers -16.5 -105 

Clemson is coming off an incredibly disapointing loss and appears to be in a terrible spot here, but I’m actually a believer that when a team takes that big of a beatdown they are really ready to get back on the field and prove themselves.  And their opponent this week shouldn’t put up too much of a fight, a Maryland team who started well and has seen their season unravel since a 63-0 beatdown in Tallahassee.

Maryland lost a lot more than the game last weekend in Wake Forest, they lost what were easily their top 2 offensive playmakers (WRs Diggs & Long) for the season and likely lost their QB CJ Brown this week.  The Terps were pretty reliant on the big play ability of those wideouts (my #25 unit for explosive plays) and when you take them away you see a run game that struggles (3.84 ypc) and an offense that doesn’t move the chains consistently (#109 on 3rd downs).  Clemson’s D struggled last week  but they still outmatch Maryland all over the field and should be able to dominate the LOS and force Maryland into a lot of long yardage situations.

Taj Boyd looked really shaky last week in a big spotlight game, but should get his feet back under him with much of the pressure of this season having dissipated (unless he really IS on the take as the rumor mill has speculated).  Maryland looked great defensively in the first part of the season but has really struggled since the FSU loss.  The Terps gave up 31 to a one-dimensional Wake offense and allowed 26 points to a terrible UVA offense that was only kept below 40 by their red zone struggles (4 posessions ended in field goals inside the UMd 15).

In spite of everything, Clemson is still loaded with talent and with Maryland being banged up yet again match up favorably at every position on the field.  If Clemson is still emotionally invested in making a BCS bowl this season (still a distinct possiblity) they will show up here and blow out an unlucky Maryland team that has every reason to pack it in.  Clemson 42 Maryland 17.

3 units — Oregon Ducks -14 1H -110

This one is a really tough spot for a UCLA team that I do like, they are coming off of a very physical loss in Palo Alto and now have to travel to Eugene for a national spotlight game against an Oregon team known for starting fast.  I’ve read this week that the Oregon DC was really upset with his teams defensive performance last week vs Wazzou (38 points, 35 first downs and 559 yards allowed) and has really stepped up the defensive intensity in practice this week.  With Oregon falling to number 3 in the BCS rankings following the big win for FSU last week, I expect to see Oregon intent on starting strong and running up some numbers while the east coast voters are still awake.  UCLA will likely be without their leading rusher (RB James) this week, and it adds even more stress on a passing game that is #6 in defensive passing effeciency.  I just feel like UCLA is outclassed by a team that won’t struggle with their speed and ability to spread the field offensively as it is what Oregon faces every week in practice.  The Ducks do have Stanford on deck, but they get a bye week before that game so they will have plenty of time to focus on the biggest game of their season.  My second ranked offense comes out with both barrels blazing here against a UCLA team that hasn’t seen anything nearly this explosive yet this season.  Oregon 36, UCLA 10 (halftime)

4 units — Oregon State Beavers +4.5 -110

I believe the wrong team is favored here, and we get a solid spot for the Beavers as well.  Stanford is coming off of a huge win at home vs UCLA to get their season back on track, but now has to travel to a very difficult place to play against a OSU offense that is a very tough match-up for them.

As usual, Stanford has an extremely solid defense, but they’ve struggled at times versus the pass (ranked #79 in passing yards allowed per game).  Some of this has come in garbage time in big wins, but I don’t see this as a defense that can completely lock down a strong pocket quarterback with good protection (the Beavers have allowed sacks on 2.5% of passing plays this season).  Oregon State has an elite passing game, and has an NFL caliber quarterback who excels in spreading the field and making quick reads.

Overall I’m just not sold on this Stanford team, they are a couple of years removed from the Harbaugh era and I feel like they are still overvalued this season.  My numbers have Oregon State as the better team, and I’m on them for a fairly large play geting points at home after a few games on the road against a Stanford team with another huge game vs Oregon on deck.  Oregon State 31 Stanford 23.

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