SabertStxVii goes 7-0 on Saturday … SWEET!
The Sabert Man went 7-0 this past Saturday and is now hitting 64.29% of his Premium picks over the first half of the season (27-15 for +21.80 units).
Please see below for a complete review of Sabert’s picks & write-ups for this past weekend.
[box] To subscribe to The Saturday Edge Premium service, including SabertStxVii picks, please click here.[/box]3* Units, Missouri +9 vs UGA – WINNER
2* Unit, UGA/Mizzou Over 63.5 (1u at 64.5) – WINNER
1.5* Units, Nebraska -14.5 vs Purdue – WINNER
2* Units, North Texas – 5.5 vs Middle Tennessee – WINNER
2.5* Units, LSU -7 vs Florida – WINNER
2* Units, Wisconsin -10.5 vs Northwestern – WINNER
1* Unit, Boise State -6.5 vs Utah State (bought to -120) – WINNER
3* Units, Missouri +9 vs UGA
1* Unit, UGA/Mizzou Over 63.5
I’m a little late to be on the Tigers, but I think they are catching Georgia at the right time and they match-up very well. Let’s start with where each team is currently.
The Tigers have played the 67th ranked schedule, and are sitting undefeated through 5. Of note, they beat Indiana and Vanderbilt on the road. This Georgia game is the first huge test for them and they have a few more following. Georgia on the other hand has played the hardest schedule in the country. They slipped up on the road in the opener against Clemson, but took down LSU and SC at home. They are coming off of a scary game against a hungry Tennessee team.
Along the way, UGA has lost a lot. First, lets start with what hasn’t lost much, but hasn’t played that great so far, their defense. The front 7 of this Georgia defense has performed okay. I have their DL ranked 42nd and their LB ranked 35th. The secondary is where it gets scary, ranked 117th. That shows in their stats as well. They are ranked Top 50s in run defense, but they cannot stop the pass worth a lick. That is not good going against this Missouri team.
Missouri has the 8th most efficient passing attack in the country. Whats even scarier is their rushing offense ranks 6th. Both #s are schedule adjusted. This offense is absolutely loaded. It starts with the QB, James Franklin. He is very experienced and has only thrown 3 int through 5 games. Part of the reason for James Franklin’s success? The WRs. James Franklin has these weapons: Marcus Lucas at 6’5 220lbs, Dorial Green-Beckham at 6’6 220lbs, L’Damian Washington at 6’4 200lbs, and Jimmie Hunt at 6’1 210lbs. YIKES. The Bulldogs have one player over 6’4 on D that plays and thats Josh Harvey-Clemons 6’5 at safety. Adding to the mess, Georgia’s safety Tray Matthews is out hurt. So, safe to say, Missouri will be able to pass.
Moving onto the run, Missouri has a slew of options, once again starting with James Franklin. He is a dual threat QB that can pick up the yards on the ground if need be. Moving further, they are stocked with Russell Hansborough, Henry Josey, and Marcus Murray. All 4, including Franklin have rushed for over 275 yards this season. They are all averaging 7 or more yards per carry.
The Missouri offense is efficient in every aspect. Georgia’s Red-Zone D is one of the worst in the nation (95th overall, 108th in allowing TDs), adding insult to injury. Let’s move to the other side of the ball.
Georgia is still one of the best offenses in the country, on paper. What you have to remember is what Georgia is missing. Keith Marshall is out for the season. Todd Gurley is 50/50 with an ankle sprain, so even if he does play, its one bad cut and hes sitting again. Malcolm Mitchell is out for the season. Justin Scott-Wesley is out. Without those players and assuming Gurley sits, the Bulldogs are missing over 50% of its offensive yards and 11 of 25 offensive TDs. Gurley playing is huge for the Dawgs, both schematically and probably psychologically. Regardless of if he’s 100% or not, the Tigers defense must respect his ability. This will open up the play action for Murray and the young and inexperienced WRs.
Regardless, I don’t see Missouri really stopping UGA either. They didn’t stop Indiana’s pass (377 pass yards), Arkansas State’s pass (318 yards), nor Vandy’s pass game (338 yards). I don’t think they’ll stop UGAs either, but UGA has the potential to stop themselves with what they are going through.
The promising thing for Georgia is they have Aaron Murray who has done a phenomenal job protecting the football to date and is one of the best QBs in the country. The Missouri Tigers have experienced some turnover luck, so if the Dawgs can prevent the turnovers on offense, they still can put Mizzou away.
I think Georgia will get their scores, and Missouri will match. Finally, the Georgia punter is out as well, so some short fields for Mizzou is probably in order. I think Missouri will be able to score with UGA and make some more plays on defense with more experience. It will be a close one.
Final Score
UGA 41, Mizzou 40
Stay tuned on the totals…
1.5* Units, Nebraska -14.5 vs Purdue
This is a value play for me. I understand the spot isn’t ideal for Nebraska here with Purdue coming off of a bye and possibly realizing some things, but I have Nebraska winning this one by 4 TDs, and here’s why.
Nebraska, regardless of who is playing QB (and it’s not TMart this weekend) is extremely efficient on offense. They literally have the best ranking offense after adjusting for schedule according to my rankings. When you don’t adjust for schedule, they come in at 8th. They are going to score, especially because they are going up against a Purdue team that is not great on defense. They give up 3rd down conversions and let teams score as bad as anyone else in the country. Not one stat that ranks in the top 15 in preventing scoring does Purdue rank in the Top 60.
On the other side of the ball, to cover this number, Nebraska is going to have to get some defensive stops. Surprisingly, Nebraska has improved on defense. They are getting after the QB well, ranking 31st in sacks and 27th in tackles for a loss. They also rank 25th in 3rddowns, but the reason I like them to get some stops is because Purdue should stop themselves.
The Purdue offense is bad. They should see a new look from Etling at QB, but I don’t think it will matter. When your offense is one dimensional as it is and you rank basically 100 or worse in every stat that matters, you need to do more than just change your QB. Their OL doesn’t get protection, therefore they can’t rush the ball well and they can’t pass either. Finally, they don’t convert 3rd downs or in the Red Zone.
This one should get ugly, which I’ll gladly take.
Final Score
Nebraska 45, Purdue 17
2* Units, Wisconsin -10.5 vs Northwestern
At first when I talked to a few people on this game, I wasn’t really sold on it, but the more I looked into things, the more I liked Wisconsin. Wisconsin is one of the sleepers that could win the Big 10 I think.
We all know the spot that Northwestern is in here. They are coming of the huge game vs the Buckeyes. Now, that spot was not enough for me to play the Badgers here.
What I like about the Badgers is the game they play, and coming off of the bye. The Badgers are a power run team with quite possibly one of the best RBs in the nation with Melvin Gordon. As good of a team as Northwestern is, they really struggle to stop the run. That is not good going up against Wisconsin. I invision Wisco just wearing them down and beating them in the trenches.
Trenches will be huge in this game, and we got a rested Wisconsin team going up against a Northwestern team coming off possibly the biggest game in school history. I don’t think they will be flat because I think Pat Fitzgerald is too good of a coach for that, but I think they will get worn down and Wisco will put them away.
Beware, this one may look ugly for awhile, but watch near end of the 3rd Q and into the 4th for Wisconsin to take control. Wisconsin LEADS the nation in yards per rush with over 7 and rank 6th in the nation in yards per play. Because of their run game, when they do through, things open up. Wisco also has a very underrated defense that should be able to hold Northwestern at home this week.
Final Score
Wisconsin 38, Northwestern 24
2* Units, North Texas – 5.5 vs Middle Tennessee
Quite a few reasons why I like this play, starting off with the fact that N Texas is underrated. They are coming off of a game at Georgia where they hung in there, and then a game at Tulane where they lost a close one to another underrated team.
They are coming home to play for only the 2nd time this year against a Middle Tennessee team that isn’t very good. Middle Tennessee lost last week to ECU.
Let’s get into the team vs team match-ups. Norht Texas is solid on offense. They have a better passing attack than rushing, and thats not the fault of their OL. The OL performs well. On 3rd downs and in the RZ they do a good job of converting and scoring. Thats going against a Middle Tennessee team that is one of the worst in the nation at stoping teams from converting on 3rd downs. So North Texas offense plays into Middle Tennessee’s weaknesses.
On defense, North Texas does the same thing. Middle Tennessee is bad at passing and North Texas isn’t great at stopping it. But, North Texas does a good job of stopping the run. They held UGA to 4.4 yards per carry. Middle Tennessee does an okay job of rushing the ball, and North Texas does an okay job of stopping the run.
When I break it down, North Texas is favored in the stat projections, the correlations projections and they’ve played a schedule twice as hard as Middle Tennessee’s. They are returning home to play in a big game, and I like them to cover the number under a TD here.
Final Score
N Texas 31, Middle Tennesse 17
2.5* Units, LSU -7 vs Florida
Florida finally has to play a team that can move the ball on offense. The past 3 teams they have played have the worst offenses in the SEC. Tennessee, Kentucky and Arkansas. All of those teams have a huge flaw somewhere on their offense, so thats part of the reason why Florida’s D is getting hype. They also got to play 2 of those teams at home.
I would argue that Florida has faced one decent offense all year in Miami.
They now have to go to Baton Rouge to play a very good LSU team. This LSU team has one of the best offense in the country. What I like about this LSU offense is they can do it both on the ground, and through the air. That will keep the good Florida defense continually guessing. Mettenberger can beat you through the air, and they have one of the best RBs in the SEC as well.
I like this game even more because of Florida’s offense vs LSU’s defense. Florida is starting a QB in what will really be his first huge road test. I don’t think he is quite ready for that. The LSU defense will get after the QB here and will cause him to get into some trouble. I think turnovers may decide this game, and Florida gives them up, and LSU typically doesn’t.
Leaning on the home team, in a game that I think is close for awhile, that LSU wins by double digits in the end.
Final Score
LSU 27, Florida 13
1* Unit, Boise State -6.5 vs Utah State (bought to -120)
This last one really lit up for me because of everything that Utah State is going through. They lost Chuckie Keaton last week. If he was healthy and playing, Utah State is favored by 2.5 or so in this game. Thats a HUGE swing. We have no idea what Utah State is going to get from their QB production, and that is not a good thing going up against a well coached Boise State team.
Boise State is extremely efficient on offense. They will get their scores here. The reason I played this game is because of the question marks on Utah States offense. They lose their starting QB, their best RB is out for this game. They are going to struggle here. Boise State has been hampered by the big plays they give up through the air on defense, and that isn’t going to be the case with a brand new QB.
Boise State ranks 5th in Red Zone attempts per game, and they do a good job of converting those attempts into TDs. I have a hard time believing that Utah State will continue to convert their 3rd downs at a clip of 53% and their RZ TDs at 67%. Both of those numbers will drop in this game, and Boise State will win this one by a pretty nice margin.
Final Score
Boise State 34, Utah State 21
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