So if Northwestern falls on the ball in the endzone or knocks it out of the back of the endzone, OhioState wins by 6, and Northwestern covers…put that in your pipe and smoke it!!!

I always find it interesting how sometimes the scoreboard doesn’t really tell the whole story.  Sometimes one play or a coach’s decision can be the difference between a close game and a blowout, or a game that almost covered and a game that beat the spread by 20 points.

Last weekend I had a play on the under 55.5 in the Miami/GTech game.  There were a lot of points scored in the 1^st half, but slowed down considerably in the 3^rd quarter to bring it on pace for the under.  With Miami leading 31-23 and just over two minutes left on the clock, they were faced with a 3^rd and 1 from the GT 37yd line.  If they don’t make it, they could either punt and force GT to have to drive the length of the field to score (and go over the total), or they might go for it on 4^th down and continue to try to run out the clock.  If they convert, based on the amount of time left on the clock, all they would need is one more 1^st down to end the game.  At this point, an innocent bystander would choose under 55.5 as opposed to over 55.5.  If there was an in-game live wager bet on the total the under would be favored.

On the next play Miami picks up the 1^st down, meaning all that I would need to cover my wager would be one more 1^st down by the Canes.  But on the next play, the running back broke through the defense and scored a touchdown, something Miami wasn’t even trying to do!!  Now my “under” is busted, but this is where it gets interesting to me (after all, everyone loses a close bet now and then…).  After kicking off to GT, Miami returns an interception for a touchdown, making the score 45-23.  With the game in hand and GT’s backup QB now in, Miami plays prevent defense, allowing GT to score with :10 left on the clock to make the final 45-30.  Now if we go back to the in-game live wagering with 2 minutes left on the clock and the score 31-23, if u55.5 would have been favored, what do you think over 74.5 would have been…??!!  There was probably a 1% chance of that game going over 74.5, and if the original game total was set at that number, we all would have thought the bet was an easy winner with two minutes left.

A similar situation occurred in the SMU/TCU game the week before.  I wanted to play u52.5, but with it still early in the season and the stats not yet “mature”, I decided to pass.  By the end of the 3^rd quarter and the score 17-10, I was kicking myself for not playing it.  But with a bit of an offensive explosion in the 4^th qtr, the score stood at 34-17 with just under 3 minutes to play.  SMU had just scored, and was attempting an on-sides kick.  All TCU had to do was recover it, and with 51 points on the board, the u52.5 would be a winner.  Again, think of the odds in a live-wagering situation, and it’s obvious the under would be favored at this point.  Well, not only did TCU recover it, but they returned it for a TD and sent the game over!!  After they kick off and SMU drives down the field, TCU then returns an interception for another TD, making the score now 48-17, and a total of 65 points.  Now what do you think o64.5 would have been priced at in live-wagering as SMU is lining up for an on-sides kick with less than 3 minutes to play..??  And I sure was happy that I passed on the under in that game…

So at face value, just by looking at the scoreboard in both of these instances, you would have thought these games featured offenses running up and down the field, and that the “overs” were easy cash.  Sometimes looks can be deceiving, and it pays later on to take a closer look today.

Wishing you a “green” weekend.

T$