College Football Week 7 Quick Hitters: Betting Nuggets and Featured Pick
I wanted to start off this week’s article with a quote posted by TSE handicapper GoSooners in last week’s Quick Hitters segment:
I think the problem with a lot of the games this week and the reason why handicapping can sometimes be harder these days is because of weeks like this where it’s pretty obvious that the oddsmakers have already heavily factored in the situational stuff into many of these games.
I agree with this statement 100%, and I’m glad GS brought it up. Almost all of these situational factors I point out in this Quick Hitters article are already built into the spread. It is important to recognize that fact. You aren’t necessarily getting an edge on the oddsmakers by finding these situational spots, because trust me, they have already found them and adjusted the lines accordingly.
However, that’s why I provide analysis and breakdowns to these situational spots, to help you decide which factors are legitimate, and which ones are “fool’s gold“.
So with that, let’s sift through the muddy water that is college football week #7 to find some true, golden betting nuggets.
In case you are new to this segment, this article will point out the top betting nuggets of the week by identifying trends, stats, and situations to be aware of. As I mention every week, it is important to remember that these trends and stats are only one piece of the puzzle when trying to figure out which team to place a wager on. They shouldn’t be followed blindly, but instead they should be considered and factored into the broader context and reasoning for selecting a side.
12 thoughts on “College Football Week 7 Quick Hitters: Betting Nuggets and Featured Pick”
Leave a Reply
MAXIMIZE YOUR EDGE
I agree that LSU should score at home, (I have 4* LSU o47.5), but I think UF will put points up as well…Murphy is an upgrade over Driskell, and he can run and pass…He’s a Jr. so while he doesn’t have much playing experience, he isn’t a young kid, and in fact has persevered as a 2* recruit, and reflects it in his poise in the pocket…LSU defense has been below average, and just gave up over 450 yds, and more importantly 7.0 yards/play, to miss st…i have no opinion on the side, but I think, as has been the case in all their FBS games this year, if LSU is to cover they’re gonna have to outscore UF as opposed to keeping UF down…
good luck
I could see that angle as well. I know Murphy has been a catalyst for UF’s offense, but I still don’t like the Gators chances to match the other side, even with their highly touted defense.
Opening Line…Nice writeup. It’s seems like it’s always around this 7th or the 8th week when the oddsmakers start to get very good with the lines, but many of the cappers out there think they are still getting soft lines. These are usually the weeks where these cappers who have had a hot winning streaks with the looser early lines start to struggle and give back some of their September winnings. It’s why I always tread lightly from the middle of October on. I can almost guarantee you that either this week or next week is going to leave people scratching their heads. Like you said, some of the the ones who thought they had a great situational angle, are going to be throwing up their arms and saying this game is impossible to beat. Believe me it happens to all of us. I think you’ve just got to let it roll off your shoulders, and take the attitude that this kind of crazy stuff doesn’t happen every week.
Of some of the games you mentioned, the 3 that kind of stand out to me are BC, Navy and Oregon State. Navy is a tough matchup for a conference team to play in the middle of the year. I think it would be different if Duke was playing another conference team mid year because those teams have conferences races of their own to think about. But these independents are especially tough because EVERY game is big to them. I also don’t like to play undisciplined teams going against the academies, especially Navy. Duke is -4 in TO margin and Navy is +4. Not a good combination. With Oregon State, I think they’ve turned the corner after their shocking first game loss to Eastern Washington. I love taking the hot QB’s this time of year. And right now Sean Mannion is quietly the hottest QB in the country right now. Oregon St. doesn’t have any kind of running game, but the good thing here is neither does WSU. So it’s a wash. All things being equal, I’ll take the team with the star player to make the difference. I’m also kind of liking Boston College. Clemson is coming off a very overrated Syracuse team and playing a semi-underrated BC. The difference here is Clemson is going from playing a Big East team who still lacks the familiarity with the ACC, to a team who knows Clemson’s game very well. Plus next week is not just any game, it’s Clemson/FSU. EVERYTHING will be on the line in that game, including possible national championships implications. I would be a little surprised here if BC is getting 100% of their attention. Good luck this week. I like the way you think on these games.
I’m glad we are seeing eye to eye on some of these games. I know you are a huge “situational angle” type of handicapper, so your 2 cents is very valuable for this weekly column.
GS, I know you read my comments every week on my site, so you know I feel the same way. Almost every Saturday night, usually while games are still going on and I am watching them out of one eye, I am looking at the days’ games and checking the next week’s schedules for situational plays. I post several of these plays on Saturday night and prepare to wager on them when the lines first come out Sunday. Out of about 7 situational plays that I liked for one or more reasons and posted, I ended up playing ONE! It was OBVIOUS Vegas had adjusted the lines to compensate for the situations this week. The only one I ended up playing was Boise State -6.5.
GoSooners I agree…funny you just mentioned that I just
told my buddy he needs to be careful this week that the
lines should be much tighter. I actually have all ways
said the 8th week but they definitely start getting tighter
this week also…………..
OpeningLine……..This is one of my favorite segments on TSE with lots of good information to consider. Thanks for sharing
your thoughts……….and good luck this week.
Thanks tnvolfan; glad you enjoy. Best of luck to you as well!
I agree with tnvolfan, OL, I always look forward to your thoughts on games. Thanks!
Duke saw the option 2 weeks ago again GT (granted they got clobbered but Navy isn’t GT) plus with the bye they were prepared for the option and the final score showed it. I took Duke and it paid off.
Duke was a good play. I am kicking myself for not playing it. Not only had Duke had experience against the triple-option, but they were playing Navy coming off their rivalry game against Air Force. Most do not understand how important the “President’s Cup” is to these service academies. I actually like Navy against Toledo this week and I think they will be a lot more focused.