I only have three plays this week, but I feel good about them. As always, if you have any questions or comments, feel free to leave one below. You can also follow me on Twitter @SmithAdamJ5. Good luck!

East Carolina @ Tulane +10

East Carolina heads to N’Awlens on Saturday to face Tulane at 3:30 ET. I had Tulane pegged as a much improved team this year, but they have exceeded my expectations. The good news for the Green Wave is that I still think their ceiling is higher and they haven’t fully played to their potential. East Carolina is on the last leg of a three game road stint. The Pirates have yet to cover as a favorite this year, and are 2-3 ATS with the two covers coming as underdogs against Virginia Tech and North Carolina. Tulane is 4-2 ATS and I think is still benefiting from public perception of the Green Wave traditionally being bad. I don’t need to go too far into an “X’s and O’s” breakdown on this one. This is going to be a hard-fought conference match up between the leaders of the East and West divisions, and I am going to take the 10 points with the home dog.

Miami (OH) @ UMass -3.5

Find all the hard liquor you can get your hands on for this one, fellas. It’s hard to lay points with a team that is yet to win a game this year, but there’s a first time for everything right? These teams are a combined 0-10 this year, but I feel that UMass is a prettier 0-5, if possible. UMass switched their defensive look a couple weeks ago against Vanderbilt, and although has no wins to show for it, has played better than expected as of late, covering against Vandy and Bowling Green. Miami just fired their coach this weekend, and this team is a mess. The Redhawks have given up 143 points in three road games this year, albeit against much better competition than UMass. The Minutemen really only have a couple realistic chances at getting a win this year, and this is one of them. I like that Miami is coming off a deflating loss with their coach being fired subsequently, and I just don’t see them getting up and playing a solid enough game to stay inside the number.

Buffalo -12.5 @ Western Michigan

Buffalo has quietly been playing some great football this year. The Bulls started 0-2 against Ohio State and Baylor, impressive squads to say the least, and has rolled UConn and Eastern Michigan the last two weeks. Western Michigan is 0-6, and is also 2-4 ATS this year. The future isn’t too bright either for the Broncos with games against some of the MAC’s best the next couple weeks in Buffalo and Ball State. I still feel like the market hasn’t caught onto Buffalo, and this line should be closer to 20 by my estimation. I am a little concerned that Buffalo hasn’t been on the road since September 7^th, but I like this teams poise and focus. Buffalo knows they cannot afford a slip-up if they want to keep pace with Bowling Green and Ohio in the MAC East, and I will gladly lay the 12.5 with the much better team against a lifeless home dog.