Texas at Iowa State (Thursday Night)

Conference specialists are in their element at this time of the season, but I hate it. The reason is that both the linemaker and the market at large have a better handle on how games will be played. Private research suggests that two SEC teams playing in a game lined at three have a thirty percent better chance of playing within a window of six than does one of the teams from a power conference traveling across the country to play an unknown opponent during the non-conference season (in a game also lined at three).

To accommodate this fact I add a new kind of in-running game to my portfolio. Now I start to look for what no-limit hold’em players call thin value bets. Basically, if you’re playing no limit hold’em against players who are worse than you, you’re goal is to get to show down with the undoubted best hand and you don’t have to risk losing your stack with a marginal hand that may be better. But, if the other players are about as skilled as you are, then you and they are going to be putting each other to tougher decisions and skillful play necessitates subtler inferences.  You have to make more bets when you only might have the best hand. Similarly in the college football market at this time of the year early-betting market reading becomes a more crucial strategy as the public v. sharp opportunities dissolve into a sharp v. sharp market reality.

Here’s what that looks like in terms of a specific play. Texas opened at -7.5 over Iowa State, and has been quickly bet up to -9. This means that if I back Iowa State now and they can get up by an early field goal or keep the game close late, I should get at least two clean middle numbers (7 and 8) and at least one push number. I believe the reason that the line moved is the early birds guessing that David Ash will start ahead of his being officially named. I disagree with the early birds that  the market is going to move to ten once he is named starter. And even if I’m wrong about the market wisdom of the sharps, I think Texas will play-call to protect Ash once they have a two score lead, and that another QB will get significant snaps.

So my play is to take Iowa State against the sharps at +9. I’m taking a lead that the early emotional advantage will be with Iowa State and I can get Texas back for -6 or better. Getting 20-1 on two clean numbers that have only about a 15-1 chance to hit and some chance to never close isn’t a great bet, but by this time of the seasons everybody knows what everybody knows and I start to look for thinner edges.

UCLA at Utah (Thursday Night)

It’s a truism of horse racing that if you’re a winning horseplayer you’re almost always better off betting to win rather than to place or show. I realize there are special cases where this truism can be contested, but the principle is that if you’ve done your homework you’re only going to be right a certain percentage of the time–and when you are you don’t want to share the rewards of your insight. It’s natural and therefore tempting to throw in other plausible finish scenarios to dilute your core insight, but because it dilutes your payoff it’s not tactically sound. Occasionally this principle comes into play in betting college football, and the late game Thursday is just such a case.

UCLA and Utah both seem to me go-on teams, but I think that Utah will have a first half advantage, and UCLA will be better late. The reasons are that the home night underdog Utes should be primed to throw the first punch, but UCLA, and especially their DC Lou Spanos, are well known for making good halftime adjustments–and in fact the Bruins are 3-0 ATS in their 2H’s (including that remarkable turnaround versus Nebraska). I also think that the Bruins figure to be a little flat in this one as they got a lot of mileage out of that kid dying in a car wreck. The Nebraska game was dedicated to him, and then they ran the first play versus Saturday’s blowout fodder with only ten men on the field. That kind of emotional gimmick only lasts so long, and while UCLA only figures to be flat for a series or two, it’s still to Utah’s advantage.

So to leverage this speculation I’ll be taking Utah to win the 1H outright on the moneyline, and if that wins, I’ll put the entire amount back on UCLA minus the 2H points. Sharp players know about the UCLA halftime adjustment thing, so if I’m fortunate enough to win the 1H bet, I’ll be waiting in line for the 2H price cause it will move UCLA’s way. My standard unit is two percent of bankroll, but for a compound play like this one I’ll drop that down to one and a half percent.

UCLA QB Brett Hundley (Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports)

Arizona State vs. Notre Dame (Arlington, Texas)

If blowing up a rival’s program doesn’t count as a big win, then I don’t know what does. So the Sun Devils are still going to be high-fiving themselves when they get on that plane to fly to Dallas. I think it’s a poor spot for them, and the market agrees as the opener of -6.5 is now split between -5.5’s and -6.0’s. Hopefully there will be enough +6’s on the board so that when this is published those sixes will still be there for any interested readers.

I think Notre Dame is a good team who just happened to meet their krypotnite opponent unit last week in Oklahoma’s speed rushers. I think Notre Dame figured itself out last week. They’re a very good running team and I’m guessing Chip Kelly will play to his team’s strength going forward. Last week ND even learned that they have an effective wildcat package to deploy, and I suspect that will make them better finishers in goal to goes. I look for them to keep ASU off the field, and eventually grind them down. I  think they’ve got the wrong team favored. I could dress this one up as an in-game play because ND has secondary issues and the Sun Devils are pass brilliant and my mandate is to write about in-game strategy, but I took the early number and wouldn’t consider giving any of it back.