A very solid bounce back week got me near the black early on in the season as I went 4-1 on my Saturday Edge plays.  I felt really good about my play selections last week, and was rewarded for being patient over the first few weeks.  This is the last week before most conference play starts, so it remains important to stay very selective and to especially consider look-ahead spots and motivational angles.

My write-ups are going to be relatively short this week, I’m getting married this weekend and have a million other things going on.  Next week is my honeymoon, so I’m not sure if I will even have write-ups at all.  As always, best of luck.

5-7 -1.88 units

Plays

5 Units — Clemson Tigers -13.5 -110

3 units — Arizona State Sun Devils +8 -110

3 units — Pittsburgh Panthers -4 -110

Plays with write-ups

5 units — Clemson Tigers -13.5 -110

Just an absolute mismatch for me in Raleigh, and one that has enough line value in my opinion to make it a max play.  When making my weekly lines I was expecting this one to be at least -17 and I was willing to lay those points.  North Carolina State just does not have the talent or depth to match-up against Clemson.  This game represents a major step up in opponent class for NCSU, they walked all over a Louisiana Tech team that is way down and squeaked by FCS Richmond two weeks ago.  State has serious limitations offensively, they have a QB in Pete Thomas who doesn’t have the arm strength to stretch the field at all and the lack of a vertical threat in the passing game is going to make it very hard for NCSU to stretch the field vs a Clemson D that is bigger and faster than they are.  State’s offense currently thrives in being able to create space on the edges and win the 1v1 match-ups and I just don’t see them having a lot of success against a Clemson defense that will pressure at the line of scrimmage and dare Thomas to try to take them apart over the top.

I don’t need to say much about this Clemson offense, we know how loaded they are and how much of a handful they are to scheme for.  Last season they absolutely torched NCSU (62 points) and now we have a State secondary that is much less experienced and talented.  I just don’t see how NCSU keeps Clemson from moving the chains on them all night long.

In the past Clemson would always be a risk to lose to lesser teams (they lost 37-13 here in Raleigh 2 years ago) but I believe that the talent and experience level is just too great on this years Tiger team to lose to the truly undermanned squads on their schedule.  Though State is undefeated I believe this is a big rebuilding year for the program and they are going to take their lumps versus the really good teams on their schedule.  I look at this as another showcase event on National TV for Clemson to impress the voters, and I think they just overpower the Wolfpack.  Clemson 45 – NC State 20

3 units — Arizona State Sun Devils +8 -110

Too many points for me to stay away from with an Arizona State squad that I really like against what feels like an overvalued Stanford team.  Against decently talented teams Stanford is tough to lay a lot of points with because their style of play purposefully limits their ability to pile the points up and run away from teams. Stanford has been pretty unimpressive offensively early on this year and their is a risk that they haven’t been properly motivated yet this season, but I feel this is a big step up in class for the Cardinal and will be going against an ASU side that has everything going their way at the moment.  ASU was more than a little lucky to win last week, but I feel like this is a team coming into this game with a lot of confidence and .  Bottom line with this game is I feel like these teams are even and I see a lot of value in getting more than a score with the team who has already been battle tested this season.  Stanford 24- Arizona State 21

3 units — Pittsburgh Panthers -4 -110