Edsall Bowl: Take Two

The Maryland Terrapins pack up and head north to Randy Edsall’s old stomping grounds to face the UCONN Huskies this weekend. This is only the third all-time meeting between the two programs with UCONN coming out victorious last season at Maryland.

Line:

Maryland -7 O/U 48

Trends to Watch:

Let’s Go Streaking: Terrapins are riding a 4-0 ATS streak.

Not So Friendly Confines: The Huskies are 1-4-1 ATS in last 6 home games.

Home Sweet Home?

Maryland Head Coach, Randy Edsall returns to Connecticut – a place where he spent 11 seasons and became the winningest coach in the program’s history. The Terrapins come into town with a 2-0 record, whereas the Huskies have had a week off to think about their home loss to the Towson Tigers. Edsall and the Terps come into this game playing superior football; albeit against less than stellar competition. Maryland disposed of FIU and Old Dominion by 30 + points in consecutive contests, on their way to covering both games easily. Last season, the Terps started off 2-0, only to lose to UCONN at home; a loss that opened up the flood gates, leading to a 2-8 finish.

Quarterback CJ Brown returns from a season ending ACL injury in 2012. His return has been just what the doctor ordered for the Terrapins. In two games this season, Brown has connected on 75% of his pass attempts, thrown for 5 touchdowns and added another 135 yards rushing. It is not just Brown that makes the Terrapins go. The team boasts one of the nation’s best receivers in local product, Stefon Diggs. Diggs has racked up 277 yards receiving and two scores to open his sophomore campaign. Possession receiver Deon Long has been a steady compliment to Diggs, hauling in 12 catches for 134 yards. Running back Brandon Ross struggled in his first game, but found a groove against Old Dominion. The Maryland defense has played well, but it’s hard to say what this unit ultimately is. It is worth noting that they held an Old Dominion squad to 10 points after a 38 point effort against ECU the week prior. Maryland is replacing both defensive ends from last season as well as two senior linebackers.

Shaking off Towson:

Meanwhile, UCONN has had a week off to overcome its deflating home opener loss to the Towson Tigers. Let’s put Towson in perspective; this team went to LSU last year and gave the Tigers all they could handle. UCONN may have taken the game lightly or they may be that bad – I bet it is a little of both. The Huskies have a second year starting Quarterback in Chandler Whitmer and former Big East Freshman of the year, Lyle McCombs. The offensive line returns five starters from last year, and while I want to put more stock in that – they did allow five sacks in Week 1 against Towson. Defensively, UCONN is replacing three NFL draft selections in Dwayne Gratz and Blidi Wreh-Wilson at the corner and LB Sio Moore, so some drop off in production was expected. However, the Huskies are replacing their star cornerback duo with experienced upper-classmen like Byron Jones and Taylor Mack. The loss of Sio Moore also hurts, but is replaced by another star player in Jr. Yamin Smallwood (120 tackles in 2012).

So what to make of all this? Edsall bowl round 2 leaves many question marks and the only answer a handicapper has to go off when assessing this particular game is Maryland’s solid home efforts against a rebuilt FIU team and FBS newcomer in Old Dominion. Toss in UCONN’s disastrous opener against a subdivision team, and we are left with a dangerous public favorite.

Let’s look at a few positives for UCONN.

The offense has continuity at quarterback, running back, and along the offensive line.
The Huskies have enjoyed 2 weeks to prepare for this game.
74% of the money is coming in early in favor of Maryland, yet the line has dropped from 8 to 6.5 (in some places).

What to Expect:

I like Maryland quite a bit offensively and believe this team will be a nightmare for some of their more high-profile opponents on the schedule later in the year. Call me a skeptic, but I am not rushing to the exits on the Huskies following their opening week loss.I love the fact this team had two weeks to overcome the loss and the extra time to prepare for Maryland. I am not sold on the Maryland defense and it may show up this week in their first road start. If UCONN can protect the passer and establish the run early behind and experienced running back and offensive line, the Huskies could give the Terrapins trouble in this one. Both these coaches know each other well and expect it to be a chess match throughout. Maryland is still the more complete outfit in this game, but expect maximum effort in this one from UCONN.

Prediction: Maryland 28 UCONN 24

David Pierce is a sports handicapper at Stathappens and writer for The Saturday Edge. You can follow David on Twitter throughout the college football season @LasVegasCapper.