What’s up College Football fans!!!  Welcome to the inaugural edition of my weekly column, where I’ll take a look at the world of college football from the perspective of people like us, those who wager on the games.  After all, only FANS care about who wins straight up…the rest of us just care about “who covered..?”

For week one I will take a different approach to this column, as there are no games to look back on and there’s no reason to look ahead considering we haven’t even played a game yet.  So for this week I will take a “big picture” view of the college football landscape, and discuss some things to look for over the course of the next four months.

“The $20 bill in your winter coat pocket” Teams

You know what I’m talking about…early November and you put that coat on that you haven’t worn in a year…reach in to put your keys in the pocket…and Holy Sh*t, look what I found!!  I’m looking for teams that could be a profitable play ATS that the normal, everyday bettor would usually not play, or might even fade.  So while Alabama might go 9-3 ATS, that wouldn’t “surprise” anyone.  Here are a few that probably aren’t on your list of “go to” teams, but might very well put some dollars in your pocket.  We’ll see at the end of the season.  Here they are, in no particular order.

Missouri

Last year was a rough introduction to the SEC for the Tigers, which wasn’t helped by their star QB missing all or parts of five games after undergoing shoulder surgery in the spring.  Now they come into the season with expectations low after their streak of 7 straight bowl appearances got snapped last year, but the potential to outperform is high.

QB Franklin comes back for his third season as a starter, along with big play offensive weapons Murphy (3 punt return tds/1 kickoff ret TD) at running back, Washington at WR (18 ypc the last two seasons), and top ’12 recruit DGB (5 TDs including a 70 yder vs Syracuse and 80 yder vs UCF).  They could be a home dog three times this season, which hasn’t happened for at least ten years, as well as potential dog situations vs “new” favorites Indiana, Vanderbilt, and Ole Miss (possibly by double digits).  While everyone is high on “Miss” in the SEC West, I like the potential value for “Mizz” in the East..!!

Minnesota

Like I said, not the teams that one would normally choose to lay money on..!!  But there’s a lot to like with the Gophers this season ATS, even though that still sounds funny when I write it down on paper..!!  First off, Phil Steele has them picked last in the Legends division, so we know right off the bat that perception, and most likely oddsmakers, don’t hold Minny in high regard.  Perfect!!

But when looking at this team, you see a veteran offensive line and a team that, unlike everybody else in college football these days, likes to run the ball.  In their bowl game vs Texas Tech, which they covered as a 13 point dog, the Gophers ran the ball 54 times for 222 yards, a blueprint they want to stick to in ’13.  Look for them to even sometimes line up a Guard as fullback as they try to create mismatches in the running game.

And after a year which saw them start three QBs at least three games, Minnesota is looking for stability in true Soph Nelson, who started the final 7 games last year.  Four OOC games vs non-AQ schools shouldn’t be too much of a strain on them, and bye weeks after game 6 and game 10 should keep them fresh throughout the season.  Go Golden Gophers!!!

East Carolina

Admittedly, I don’t know a lot about this team personally.  But they certainly have all of the characteristics of a team that could reap profits for you ATS.  18 returning starters, including their starting QB in his first full season as the unquestioned starter after an impressive first year at the helm in ’12, as well as their leading rusher and leader receiver.

The defense returns their top 7 tacklers, and boasts 7 SR. starters.  Both kicker and punter are back as well.  And once again, not a household name when it comes to college football, and even in their conference, where Marshall, Tulsa, and La Tech get most of the attention.  Get the treasure with these Pirates!!!

Money Burners  

Teams that could be the equivalent of rocks in your candy bag on Halloween…or chocolate kisses if you decide to fade them!!

Nebraska

Hard to finish the season any worse than Nebraska, who followed up a lackluster 13-7 victory over 4-8 Iowa with blowout losses in the BIG championship game and Capital One bowl by a combined 115-62..!!!  But Nebraska is a “name brand” and will always get the respect of linesmakers, and this year will be no different.

Their defense, which was a weak spot last year, returns only 4 starters.  Addition by subtraction?  Or a trouble spot that just got worse?  They project only four SR starters on defense, to go along with three rFr…not a good ratio.  QB Martinez has been known to turn the ball over and can be inconsistent.  All this for a team that will be favored in at least 9 of their 11 FBS games this season.  “Big Red” is what your account will look like if you side with the Huskers this year.

Nebraska QB Taylor Martinez (Photo by Eric Francis/Getty Images)

Iowa St

Iowa St somehow managed a bowl berth last season, mainly by taking advantage of a few advantageous spots in the schedule (TCU in their first game w/o QB Pachall/Baylor in their 4^th roadie in 5 games).  They were outgained in yards per play over the course of the season, and ranked last or next to last in offensive yards per game, scoring, and passing yards/att in conference.

They only return 5 starters on offense, and QB Richardson has only two career starts.  Their rush defense fell apart after All B12 LB Jake Knott got injured and missed the last five games.  Now don’t get me wrong, they will be underdogs, and pretty big ones, all season long.  But in a conference where teams routinely score in the 50’s, a 14-17 point spread is a lot different than in a conference like the BIG or ACC.  After two bye weeks in September, the Cyclones play ten straight games, including six on the road, without a back to back home stand.  I’m a “Dog” lover, but this dog has fleas!!!

NC St

New coach, new QB, horrible O-line, average defense that lost their best players from last season (three All-ACC players from their secondary).  Only 5 returning starters on each side of the ball tells a lot about the lack of experience on this team.  And no real dynamic players to overcome that lack of experience.

With a 7-5 regular season last year, they are being held in higher regard than conference mates Wake Forest, BC, Duke, Maryland, and Syracuse, but I feel they all have a better “set up” than the Wolfpack (at least ‘Cuse have two good RBs).  I see sub .500 for this team, and that will likely result in making money with them on the fade list.  No howling at the moon for the Wolfpack this season!!

Honorable Mention:  South Carolina

Is it me, or have you ever seen a whole nation fawn over a team because of one hit, by one player, in one game that they still almost lost, and more importantly, didn’t cover?  Did Alshon Jeffery and Marcus Lattimore suddenly sign up for more eligibility??  They don’t make the list, solely because of Spurrier, a veteran QB and a quality backup, and an experienced O-Line.  But give me all the points you want to, and I will gladly pick my spots.

Enjoy the games this weekend, and what ever you do, make sure you wipe the slate clean before next week…

T$