Refresher:

My unit scale will be from 1-5 units for all plays, with against the spread plays usually ranging between 2-4 units and ML / parlay plays from 1-2 units.  It is doubtful I have more than a handful of 5 unit plays this season.  I will focus mainly on ACC games early in the season, then widen my scope as I am able to gather more data.  I use an approach that combines traditional spot / matchup /situational handicapping with statistical analysis using some metrics of my own creation.  I follow ACC Football very closely, and will limit most of my “feel” games to that conference, with my other plays having a heavier dose of statistical reasoning.

For the first couple of weeks of the season I will be taking a more cautious approach, with a top play being limited to 3 units.  As we start to get into league play and get a better perspective of what each team is all about, I will relax this cap and look to pick my spots for larger plays.  Any and all plays will also be posted to my twitter handle (@jimmy_shivers).  During the season I will often grab games on opening numbers that I believe have been mis-lined.  As always, all comments or criticisms are welcome.

Best of Luck to everyone, and let’s make some units!

2013 YTD:

1-2 -2.4 units

Play #4

2 units -Pittsburgh Panthers +10.5 -108

There is a ton to like about this FSU team for this season, but this seems like an awful spot to lay double digits with them.  Obviously, there are legitimate concerns about their ability to hit the ground running offensively as they break in a new QB who is making his first career start.  While Jameis Winston has been relentlessly hyped, going out there and getting it done versus a solid Pittsburgh defense in his first career start is asking a lot.  While Winston isn’t new to NCAA athletics (he is also a star on the FSU baseball team) going on the road on national TV will be a brighter spotlight than he’s ever faced.

Also making things difficult will be a pretty solid Pittsburgh defense.  While the Panthers are stepping up in terms of competition (goodbye Connecticut, hello Clemson!), they do have a defensive line-up that will ease their transition.  The Panthers bring back 8 starters and solid depth from a group that performed well last season in several of my key stats (22nd in scoring defense vs FBS, 13th in passing yards per attempt, 4th in opponents plays of 20+ yards).  The Panthers have a new DC but he is from last years staff and is keeping things very similar schematically.  This is a very skilled and experienced secondary that will be asked to often preform in isolation as the front 7 will look to stack the line and keep a powerful FSU ground game in check.  This group will have their hands full but I believe they have a good chance to get consistent stops, especially if they can continue to prevent the big play.

When Pittsburgh has the ball I feel like their going to be able to surprise people a bit.  They are breaking in a new QB in former Rutgers starter Tom Savage, who was a freshman All-American in 2009 but had injury troubles and has transferred a couple of times since.  Savage is being put into a great position to succeed in an offense (HC Paul Chryst is formerly the OC of Wisconsin) that is really good at providing smart passing options for their QBs Last year Tino Sunseri of all people completed 65% of his passes with an outstanding 21-3 TD-INT ratio in his first year in the offense, and the year before that Russell Wilson’s Badger team completed 71% of their passes with a 34-5 TD-INT ratio in the same situation.  The point being that this offense is puts minimal pressure on QBs to have to make risky plays and frequently puts them into good situations.

Florida State was one of the truly elite defenses in the country last season, but the Noles lose 7 starters and a ton of NFL level talent as well as 3 defensive coaches, including their coordinator Mark Stoops.  FSU’s big defensive focus this season is going to be on being more aggressive and forcing more turnovers (FSU ranked 80th nationally in turnovers forced in 2012), but with so many new defensive personnel they are bound to make some mistakes and give Pittsburgh chances to hit the big plays.  FSU has a highly talented defense but I feel like Chryst’s scheme is the type that will really take advantage of mistakes made in space and they will be able to capitalize when Florida State finds themselves in the wrong place.

Getting double digits at home is usually a sign that a team is really out-classed in terms of talent, and few would argue that this isn’t the case tonight.  But what we do get with Pittsburgh is a team who is making their ACC debut at home on national tv in a game where they are largely considered an afterthought.  I like backing home dogs who don’t get any respect, and if I can do it against a team (who was 0-5 last season as road chalk) who is breaking in a new QB, 6 new coaches and a ton of new personnel then it becomes too good an opportunity to pass up.  I’ll call for FSU to struggle a bit tonight and win a close game that is competitive the whole way.  FSU 23, Pittsburgh 17.

Play #1

2 units — Brigham Young Cougars -1 -110 L

I’d like to give a shout-out to Right Angle Sports for my first play of the season,  this line has spent weeks at BYU -3 or -4 before coming down below a field goal after their group played it on Monday.  Now that I can get the Cougars at a price where they essentially have to win the game this play becomes very attractive.

This feels like a pretty good match-up for the Cougars.  Their going against a QB in David Watford who won the starting job by default (after Mike Rocco & Phillip Sims transferred out in the offseason) and is making his first career start.  Watford is extremely athletic but hasn’t shown much as a passer (redshirted last year, but played in 10 games in 2011 and  only completed 30 of 74 passes).  Virginia is transitioning to a higher-tempo offense this season and will mix in some spread option to attempt to take advantage of Watford’s athleticism.

But UVA has their work cut out for them; their going against one of the top defenses in the country last season.  Though BYU only returns 4 starters off of that defense, it is a program that puts an extreme value on defensive performance (only once outside the top 30 vs FBS schools in defensive points per game in the last 6 years) and has developed really good depth.  I expect that BYU is able to pressure Watford and force him to make quick decisions, which is something he has yet to prove he can do effectively.  Virginia does return most pieces of what was expected to be a strong run game last year, but the Wahoo’s disappointed (95th nationally in yards per carry) and often displayed an alarming lack of physicality.  I feel like their going to really struggle at the point of attack against what was a very stingy BYU defense (3rd ranked in defensive yards per carry in ’12) which just puts more pressure on Watford to find a way to move the ball.

BYU are in a similar situation to UVA in that they are bringing back a QB (Taysom Hill) who missed extended time last season, as well as retooling their offense to play at a higher-tempo.  While I don’t feel like this is a match-up where the Cougars will dominate, the vibes out of BYU’s camp have been very positive regarding Hill’s recovery and assimilation into the new offense.  Virginia has some really solid talent, and how well the Cougars are able to block Eli Harold and company will go a long way towards their ability to consistently move the football.  Virginia has a whole new approach to defense this year that will be largely predicated on forcing turnovers, so it will be absolutely crucial for BYU to not turn it over and take their chances with field position football.

New UVA DC Jon Tenuta has a reputation for being extremely aggressive in his schemes, and it’s a situation that BYU coach Bronco Mendenhall is looking forward to.  When asked if he likes going against a really aggressive defense, Mendenhall said:  “Yes, especially with the guys that we have on the outsides, our receivers. You put them one on one with anyone in the country and I trust those guys. They are going to win. I’ll put my money on them.”  Virginia does return their entire secondary from last season, but they will be under a lot of pressure to make plays in isolation.  Tenuta had a very hyped secondary last season at NCSU but they struggled in 1v1 situations and the result was a defense that gave up a ton of big plays (NCSU ranked 105th nationally in plays allowed over 30 yards)

The bottom line for me in this game is that we get what should be a very good defense with the better coaching staff going against a QB making his first career start.  UVA starts 2013 in a bit of a desperate situation coming off of losing years in 2 of 3 seasons under Mike London and with 5 new coaches on staff.  Virginia was also abysmal in special teams (122nd nationally in my special teams rankings) yet kept their special teams coach.  I just don’t have much confidence in UVA at this point, and when they play games at short numbers against well-coached and talented teams, I look to go the other way.  BYU 28, UVA 17.

I would play BYU for this amount up to -2.5  At -3 it becomes a 1 unit play, and doesn’t make my card at a higher price than that.

Play #2:

2 units — Louisiana Tech +14 -110 L

Write-up to come

Play #3

2 units — North Carolina – South Carolina Under 57 -105 W

This total is higher than it should be when you consider both the match-up for UNC and what is likely to be the agenda for South Carolina.

We’ve got a UNC offense that runs a very high tempo attack that focuses on getting their play makers into space.  They have a QB who is accurate on the short-to-medium throws but they don’t really have a ton of ability to consistently stretch the field on long passes.  Against many teams UNC is going to be very effective running this offense, as they are good at forcing isolated match-ups on the edges and forcing teams to go deeper into their benches than they would like.  But against a defense like South Carolina, it is really tough to consistently move the football this way.

South Carolina has matched up very well against these finesse offenses the past couple of years because  1) their defensive depth allows them to resist fatigue better than most 2) They are really strong at dominating the point of attack, which allows them to stop these 10 and 12 play drives before they start and 3) in general they a very physical group and excellent at making tackles in space.  A great example of this ability is in their most recent games against Clemson (allowed 7, 13 & 17 points to the Tigers in the last 3 years).  If a Clemson team who has better athletes and the highest paid OC in football struggles so badly against the Gamecocks, what chance does a UNC team that is replacing two top-35 NFL draft picks have of consistently moving the football?  Look for South Carolina to move Clowney all over the defensive front in an effort to keep him off of standout LT James Hurst and cause general confusion and chaos among the Carolina offensive front.

On the other side of the fence, we get a team in South Carolina who has quietly come away from his Fun N’ Gun roots to develop a team that is built to be able to grind opponents into the ground (SCAR ran 57% of the time last year).  This years squad returns 74 career OL starts and generally plays with a ton of physicality up front.  Going against a team like UNC who practices against a finesse offense all the time, I feel like South Carolina can have the kind of success on the ground by being tough up front that will keep Spurrier from needing to stretch the field with his passing game.  I feel like South Carolina will look to run the ball and milk the clock to keep that high-tempo UNC offense off the field and frustrate the Tar Heels.  It is also worth mentioning that Spurrier isn’t exactly enamored with his QB Connor Shaw’s decision making, and may look to help him with that by keeping the ball on the ground.

Spurrier has a great reputation for trickery but with a massive game on deck at Georgia next week I look for him to try and just do what it takes to win the game.  He and his staff have enough experience with this type of opponent to be able to win this game just by dominating up front and keeping things simple.  My only fear with backing the under here is that UNC defensively can’t get any stops at all, but I feel like South Carolina will take their foot off the gas if they get up big and try to keep everyone healthy for the big showdown next weekend.  I expect it is a relatively close score in a game that South Carolina controls.  South Carolina 30, North Carolina 17