Below are some of the games that we are considering betting on this week and a few reasons why we like a particular side or total. Please feel free to join in the discussion and offer your feedback, we would definitely like to hear about how you are viewing a particular side or total.

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Pezgordo

Louisiana Tech – NCST UNDER 62.5

This is not the same La Tech offense we saw last year. They lost 8 starters including record setting QB Colby Cameron, and of course HC Sonny Dykes moved on to Cal. Highly touted Texas Tech transfer Scotty Young takes over at QB, so they do have some talent at the position, but they also will be running a completely new offense under new HC Skip Holtz. The new offense/team philosophy will emphasize the running game and defense and won’t be anywhere near as “fast” as Dyke’s offense in terms of tempo. SoonerBS sent me a real good read on the subject https://bigstory.ap.org/article/la-tech-transformed-under-incoming-holtz-regime.

On the flip side NCST lost an NFL caliber quarterback and should have a good defensive team this year. So two new QB’s on the field and at least one good defense. I am hesitating to make this wager for two reasons, 1). La Tech’s D was really bad last year and despite the new emphasis on defense, how much better will it actually be?, and 2). Some line value has been lost as this game has moved from 67 to 62.5 (with 63 being a strong number).

Northwestern at California  U 58

I liked this total when it opened at 55. Cal’s defense plays much better in Berkeley and how efficient & explosive is the “Bear Raid” offense going to be right out of the gate with a true freshman QB at the helm against a decent Northwestern D (allowed a little less than 24 ppg against teams that averaged a little less than 26 ppg). I had seen it as high as 59 & 60.

Nevada +21 & Over 65.5

UCLA is going to score a lot of points in this game, but can their defense, which has several question marks on the DL & in the secondary, slow down the pistol? Six starters including QB Cody Fajardo return to a really good offense which averaged 37.25 ppg and was held to a season low 21 points last year by a good Boise State defense. No one else held Nevada below 31 points including PAC 12 D’s Cal & Arizona. I could easily see this being a 45-27 or even 48-31 type of game.

Ohio +21

Admittedly I have not gotten very deep into the Bobcats yet this year, however I believe Louisville is being overrated and overhyped right now. All everyone remembers is them beating a disinterested Florida team that had a terrible offense in 2012. But Louisville lost two games last year to Syracuse & UConn and they barely beat a handful of mediocre teams last year (FIU, Southern Miss, USF). Not to mention the only FBS team they beat by more than 21 points last year was a bad Temple team (45-17)

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SabertStxVii

Fresno St -9.5

Can Rutgers find their offense? They better. Derek Carr is one of the best QBs in his class, and the defense for Fresno St. is actually rather underrated. The first game at home, under the lights for this Fresno St. team. Rutgers loses a lot from the secondary. Fresno St. scores in or near the low 30s. Can Rutgers get in the 20s?

USC -21.5

So many pieces of me want to take the Trojans here. If there is a USC team that is “under the radar” this may be it. Unfortunately, I keep having to remind myself that Lane Kiffin is still the coach and he says that “both QBs” are going to get some playing time. Knowing Kiffin, Silas Redd and Marquis Lee will be taking snaps too. USC should cover this spread against one of the worst FBS teams in the nation by sheer talent, but something tells me Kiffin may not allow that to happen.

NC St -13.5

Yes NC St. loses quite a bit, but there may not be one team in the nation that loses more than LA Tech. They lose their coach to Cal, their QB, best few WRs, RB and most of the OL. Their defense wasn’t good to begin with, and Skip Holtz is a weak coach. NC St. gets this La Tech team at home. They could run away.

South Carolina -11.5

UNC could be the first Clowney victim of 2013. SC returns players, but of course they have Clowney. Shaw and Thomson return on offense, but they have Clowney. The secondary should be stronger, but they have Clowney. You get the point. UNC should be solid, but this spread will be dictated by SC offense, nothing else. UNC will struggle on offense between the hedges at night, as most teams do. Can Spurrier keep the dogs on long enough to cover here?

Please us know if there are any sides &  totals you like, have a question about or have an opinion on. Thanks – Pez

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