Daily Fantasy College Football: Week 1 Picks
The opening week of college football is finally here, and I am here to give you my picks for this upcoming slate of games. As stated in the previous article, we will be focusing on DraftKings.com when making these picks.
My picks will be broken down by Thursday games, Friday games, and Saturday games. Check back to this article, as I will be updating it with picks for each of these days as the week goes along.
If you are new to Daily Fantasy College Football, check out this post on how to use your CFB knowledge to get started and profit from these contests.
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This post will be organized with my top play and my “value” play for each position, along with some other players to consider. So with that said, here are my picks for Week 1:
Thursday 8/29
QB
Top Play: Tanner Price, Wake Forest (vs. Presbyterian)- A player that is in his final year as a starter has been very consistent over the last couple of seasons. He has a quality receiver in Michael Campanaro to throw to and look for him to look his way early and often. The matchup is really favorable as Presbyterian is an FCS school. Presbyterian played two FBS schools in 2012 and lost by a total of 117-3. Look for Wake Forest to win by 30+ points.
Value Play: Cody Kessler, USC (at Hawaii)- I know that coach Lane Kiffin has stated that both quarterbacks will play in the Trojans’ season opener, but if you are looking to save some salary on a QB, this may be a good option. He looked to have the inside track at being named the starter after having a good fall camp, but Coach Kiffin looks like he wants to give his two QBs a chance to play it out. USC is a 22 point favorite against Hawaii so expect them to put up some points.
RB
Top Play: Storm Johnson, UCF (vs. Akron)- Johnson is a former Miami transfer that should be a huge part of the Golden Knights’ offense this season. UCF is a 21 point favorite against Akron and look for Johnson to be a big reason why. Look for him to be a workhorse in this offense to take some of the load off of his quarterback Blake Bortles.
Value Play: Donnell Kirkwood, Minnesota (vs. UNLV)- This guy shouldered the load for the Gophers in 2012 just falling short of 1,000 yards on the ground. He will have to do the same this season as they have lost their quarterback from last year’s team. Minnesota is a two touchdown favorite against a UNLV team that ranked near the bottom of the NCAA in rush defense. They gave up over 207 yards rushing per game in 2012. Even though Minnesota is not known for its high powered rushing attack, look for them to ironically run all over the Running Rebels.
WR
Top Play: Marqise Lee, USC (at Hawaii)- Lee is quite possibly the best wide receiver in the country for the second straight season. He is coming off a 1,700 yard season on 118 receptions. He did lose his quarterback in Matt Barkley and will be breaking in a new quarterback (or 2). However, I think he will the ball plenty of times especially against this poor Hawaii defense. The Trojans are a 22 point favorite and Lee will be a big reason why.
Value Play: Laquon Treadwell, Ole Miss (at Vanderbilt)- Although this guy is a true freshman, he was ranked as the top wide receiver in the most recent recruiting class. He has the talent to be a big play maker for Ole Miss. Ole Miss released its depth chart this past weekend and Treadwell was listed as a starter in the slot. This is great news in the fantasy world because he an extreme value play. This play could be considered a pretty big risk, but it may be something worth thinking about.
TE
Top Play: Ted Bolser, Indiana (vs. Indiana St.)- The tight end position is a tough one to project due to the lack of use in college football. With that said, Bolser is one of the best tight ends in the country, and Indiana should look to use him often. He caught 41 passes in 2012 so I expect him to at least reach that this season.
Value Play: Xavier Grimble, USC (at Hawaii)- A value play at tight end is very difficult because, like I said before, the position is so hard to project. There are many tight ends to choose as a value play, but Grimble is my choice as the value play in the Trojans’ offense.
Others to watch:
RB: Lyle McCombs, UConn (vs Towson)- The workhorse for the UConn offense should continue to get a bulk of the carries for the Huskies. Look for him to have a good game against Towson (an FCS school).
Friday 8/30
QB
Top Play: Stephen Morris, Miami (FL) (vs. FAU)- I absolutely love this play. I feel that Morris could be in for a fantastic season in 2013. In 2012, Morris threw for 3,345 yards and 21 touchdowns to only 7 interceptions. The expectations are greater in 2013 so expect these numbers to increase. As far as this week is concerned, the Hurricanes are a 32 point favorite so expect him to throw for 300+ yards and at least two touchdowns. He does have a great running back in Duke Johnson to keep the defense honest as well.
Value Play: Jake Waters, Kansas State (vs. NDSU)- This play isn’t much less than my top play with a price tag of $6,250 (Morris is $7,750), but I like Waters as a cheaper option at quarterback. Waters was just named the starter this past week, but he will be replacing much of the Wildcats’ offense as Collin Klein has graduated. North Dakota State is an FCS school so Kansas State is favored quite heavily. Look for Waters to score a few touchdows in the game.
RB
Top Play: Duke Johnson, Miami (FL) (vs. FAU)- Honestly, the only reason I chose Johnson instead of Arizona RB Ka’Deem Carey was that Carey may miss some game time due to off the field issues. That is too much of a risk to spend that much money on. All of that said, Duke Johnson is an absolute game changer. The guy had nearly 1,000 yards on just 139 carries. This season, the sophomore will get more touches and could be one of the best running backs in the country. Against FAU, he should have over 100 total yards and a couple touchdowns.
Value Play: Traylon Shead, SMU (vs. Texas Tech)– Shead is replacing one of the best fantasy running backs of 2012 in Zach Line. He accounted for over 1,500 yards and 13 touchdowns last season. Now he’s gone and it’s the next guy up for the Mustangs. I don’t expect Texas Tech’s defense to be extremely tough at stopping anyone. If you are looking to save some cash on a RB, this could be your guy.
WR
Top Play: Eric Ward, Texas Tech (at SMU)- This is the top choice for Friday. This may seem like a cop out choice but I believe this guy will have near 100 receptions this season. With new coach Kliff Kinsgbury putting his stamp on the team, expect the ball to be thrown around 50+ times per game. This game could be a shoot out which is always great for fantasy stats.
Value Play: Bennie Fowler, Michigan State (vs. WMU)- This is a huge value play. He is only going for $3,250 on Draft Kings. He was the Spartans’ leading receiver a year ago and he should be battling to do the same this season. He may not light up your fantasy scoreboard but could definitely be a solid play for Friday especially since the Spartans are a 28 point favorite.
TE
Top Play: Jace Amaro, Texas Tech (at SMU)- The is one of the best tight ends in the country this season. Like all other Texas Tech receivers, expect Amaro to see the ball often as they are expected to throw enough where everyone will get chances. He is the top option on Draft Kings as well, but there are only four choices for Friday.
Value Play: Andrew Gleichert, Michigan State (vs. WMU)- Gleichert is the number one option at tight end for the Spartans. He may not be a game changer but if you are willing to take a risk to save some cash for Friday, then this is your guy.
Saturday 8/31
QB
Top Play: Brett Hundley. UCLA (vs. Nevada)- One of my favorite players, Hundley could put up Heisman-like numbers in 2013. This matchup is great because Nevada has a reputation of participating in shootouts. UCLA is a three touchdown favorite but I could see a ton of points on the scoreboard. Hundley is a dual-threat quarterback that should account for at least three touchdowns in this game alone.
Value Play: AJ McCarron, Alabama (vs. Virginia Tech)- The 2-time national champion quarterback returns for his senior season. As crazy as this sounds, McCarron may have the best offense Alabama has had in years around him. Virginia Tech should struggle on both sides of the ball and I expect McCarron to be the star of this game, not the running game. The Crimson Tide is a 21 point favorite in this one so don’t be surprised if this one gets out of hand early.
RB
Top Play: Ameer Abdullah, Nebraska (vs. Wyoming)- I love this matchup. It’s as simple as this: Nebraska likes to run the football, Wyoming can’t stop the run. In fact, they gave up over 230 yards per game on the ground in 2012. Nebraska’s lead back Rex Burkhead is gone so Abdullah should light up the scoreboard on Saturday.
Value Play: Glasco Martin, Baylor (vs. Wofford)– Martin is the 2nd option on this Baylor team but should get a bulk of the goal line touches in this offense. Even though Lache Seastrunk is primed for a great season, Martin will quietly have a fantastic season as well. He did rush for 889 yards in 2012. The most impressive thing is that he had 15 touchdowns. At this price ($3,750), the value is definitely there.
WR
Top Play: Jeremy Gallon, Michigan (vs. Central Michigan)- New quarterback Devin Gardner is the reason I love this play. Gardner will be looking to throw the ball more than previous Michigan teams. Gallon will be his number one target and should torch the Chippewas defense. In the 5 games that the two played together, Gallon caught 31 passes for 511 yards and three touchdowns. Now with a full offseason, this could be a lethal combination.
Value Play: Quinton Dunbar, Florida (vs. Toledo)- Dunbar is one of my sleepers this year out of the SEC. With Jeff Driskel returning for his second season as the starting quarterback, I expect the passing game to improve. Dunbar was second on the team in receptions last season to a player that has gone on the NFL. Against Toledo, the Gators are 24 point favorites so I expect the offense to be clicking in all facets. Besides, he only will cost you $4,000.
TE
Top Play: Dan Vitale, Northwestern (at Cal)- The Wildcats travel to Berkeley as 6-point underdogs. Vitale should get an increase in production from 2012. He really came to form in the latter half of the season last year. The Wildcats will need a solid receiving option to give balance to the strong running game.
Value Play: Jacob Pedersen, Wisconsin (vs. UMass)- Honestly, the reason I chose Pedersen is because Wisconsin has a history of using its tight ends well. Sure, the Badgers have a new coach but they can’t ignore the great red zone target they have in Pedersen.
Other players to watch:
QB: Vad Lee, Georgia Tech (vs. Elon)- As many of you know, the Yellow Jackets have an option attack. Lee is the head-man of this option and could rush for 100+ yards. Definitely could be a sneaky play especially to save some money.
RB : Byron Marshall, Oregon (vs. Nicholls State)- The Oregon offense is in need of a workhorse running back with the departure of Kenjon Barner and every indication points to Marshall being that guy. If that is the case then this could be a great play.
WR: Josh Stewart, Oklahoma State (vs. Mississippi State)- Stewart is projected to approach 100 catches in the Cowboys offense. He will be tested against the SEC in his first game so it could be a risky play but keep in mind that the Cowboys are a 13 point favorite.
WR: Stefon Diggs, Maryland (vs. FIU)- One of the best athletes in the country that just needs stability in the offense to be great. Maryland is a pretty big favorite in this one though so Diggs could be a big reason why.
About: Zach Tow
- Previous 2013 College Football Primer – Let the games begin
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23 thoughts on “Daily Fantasy College Football: Week 1 Picks”
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Love me some daily CFB.
To piggy back on what you have. Taking the Draft Kings scoring into effect (bonuses @ 300 yds passing, 100 yds rushing/receiving)
I actually like Tre Roberson tonight quite a bit, I know that Wilson has said it’s a 3 horse race. But if Roberson doesn’t get hurt last year, there is no QB race IMO. I think it’s probably pretty close but Roberson’s running ability might get us a rushing TD plus he’s a bit cheaper. I’d rather take the money I save on Roberson and invest on Campanaro, if Price has a big day, Campanaro does as well.
This is what my team is looking like tonight.
QB Price
QB Roberson
RB Johnson
RB J. Davis
WR Campanaro
WR Lee
WR Agholor
TE Grimble
FLEX Kirkwood
Roberson is too risky in my opinion, but I guess it depends on what type of contest you are entering. It could be a risk/reward pick that pays off in a big contest. Also, the Price-Campanaro combination has some potential for big points, which could help in a “tournament-style” contest as well.
Roberson is a bit tricky for sure. But with DK running a 2 QB scoring system it’s tough to find 2 quality guys to go for tonight. This is a Thursday only contest. With you getting 1 point for every 10 yards rushing vs. 1 point for every 25 yards passing. A scramble or 2 out of Roberson will be huge. It helps that I think IU is going to hang at least 35 on ISU tonight lol.
Roberson is a solid play. It really came down to that I liked Price more. I think the fact that he has a really good WR in Campanaro made that decision easier for me.
Also, if a player isn’t a Top or Value play, that doesn’t mean he isn’t a worthy option. I just choose my best play for that week among many which can be very tough to do.
Well, who expected USC to struggle like that in the first half? I certainly did not. Lee salvaged a decent game but not like anything I expected.
Looks like we picked the wrong late game to pounce on. Holy smokes that Rutgers game was crazzzzzzzzzy.
Any idea why Campanaro didn’t play yesterday vs. Prys?
Nevermind found a Winston-Salem Journal article. Weird, I didn’t see it yesterday when I was searching for injury news…would’ve been helpful as it was a $8k black hole. Yuck!!
Zach, you going to fire one of these for tomorrow’s games?
Definitely was unexpected. He says he is 100% healthy but just sat out the game. Kind of strange but obviously we both took the hit there. A lot of teams don’t report on injuries until or after games in college. Can make it difficult to project moving forward. Tough one last night though.
That game was not able to be chosen from. I was looking for some players in that game on the Fresno side but did not see them on the list so I left them alone.
You could choose from the Rutgers guys. Same setup as the UCF game last night.
Campanaro was something like 40% drafted in one of the daily leagues I was in last night, so a lot of people got burned by that.
It happens in every sport though: MLB, NFL, NBA, etc. Just part of the game; you have to roll with the punches.
I had USC as one of my first bets, I laid money on the wager around the first of August. What I didn’t know was that Lane Kiffin was going to dial up a 2 QB rotation. We ought to be fading every team that is going to run a 2 QB rotation this weekend. They are literally money burners for gamblers. What I have seen and experienced with two QB rotations is that neither QB feels or looks comfortable out on the field. They play nervous knowing they could be yanked at any time and the other guy put in. QB needs to be the most confident position on the field. There are enough worries and concerns on the field for a QB (like USC’s weak offensive line play last night), he shouldn’t have to be thinking about the things that are being thought or schemed on the sidelines. Coaches think the two QB system brings out the best in players because of the competition, but I have never seen this to be true. I will not be betting on any more teams that try this shit the rest of the season. I WILL however, fade them whenever I see the opportunity.
One thing we can say about last night’s ATS loss: It cannot be blamed on USC’s defense that looked superb against Hawaii allowing only 231 total yards and forcing 4 turnovers. There is no way with that kind of performance that USC shouldn’t cover the spread, UNLESS the offense totally blows it, and they did.
Completely agree with you. To me, 2 QBs is like having none. I believe in choosing one and riding it out through ups and downs.
Exactly why I didn’t bet either of the USC’s last night (Carolina or Southern Cal). Until I see who is managing the game on offense for a team, I can’t cap the game.
I have no idea what Kiffin or Spurrier are going to do on offense – they are both clowns that just toy with their QBs. Good points here.
I keep hearing that Gundy may use the 2 QB rotation this season at Okie State since the QB battles have been very close. That’s why I’m laying off this first game until I see if it’s actually going to happen or it’s just ESPN fodder. Of course ESPN said in the same report that Miss St. may do the same thing. So it could be offsetting bad moves. SoonerBS, you can’t say I didn’t warn you about USC. Hawaii, rookie QB’s on the road, and Lane Kiffin who gets more and more conservative every year, don’t mix well for a cover.
This was all Kiffin’s fault. I really think if he would have come into the game with one QB who was named the first string QB, they cover easily.
GS, you’re right about Gundy, it is hard to trust anything he says.
TCU coach also said he would two QBs, but I think he is bluffing.
One other thing, GS, it was obvious that splitting reps between two QBs in fall camp really hurt Kessler and Wittek last night. I wonder how much it will hurt Knight tomorrow night in the ULM game? I think we see some definite first game jitters from him, but we may also see some bad throws and mistakes due to a true lack of repetitiveness that these QBs need in practice.
Also, first time QBs have a really hard time adjusting to real live game speed. Knight has no experience at that at all.
You and I already have our money laid on ULM, but I still think it is a good bet even at the current line.
BS…It’s hard to say how a rookie QB is going to perform for the first time in front of 85,000 fans. The one positive he has is a very good OL and skill players around him. If he looks shaky I think Stoops will lean on the rushing game a little more. Something tells me the kid is going to do pretty good in that new Pistol option that RG3 and Kaepernick are doing. It’s a deminsion they’ve never had before. What I’m worried about more is OU’s defense. I think this ULM team might test our defense more than TCU, Notre Dame or Tulsa will in these early games. I think the scheme change will help our defense, but it may take some time.
Week 1 is always tough. We always see players emerge that we have never even heard of. We have players play above their heads and have impressive first games against inferior opponents. All in all, I think it was a pretty decent weekend.
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