Understanding Line Movement & Betting Volume
Not understanding the details of line movement and betting volume is like going to a wet t-shirt contest with a blind fold on.
The ability to follow sharp money or bet with the book can be a big advantage. Below, is a simple technique I use that can help you put extra dollars in your pocket throughout the college football season. Because, not knowing when a team is receiving the most or least amount of action can ruin a bettor’s weekend.
Theoretical Hold
In theory, a bookmaker would like to see the same amount of action on both sides of a wager. But when there’s substantial money on one side, the line will tend to move in that direction (most of the time). However, there are two factors where the opposite occurs:
[box] 1. Sharp money coming in on the team receiving less betting “volume.” Sharp money is when “professional” sports bettors place a significant amount of money on a certain side or total.2. The bookmaker holds a strong opinion against the majority side. (The book has no problem challenging the majority, especially if they feel strong about their position).[/box]
The easiest way to spot these types of moves is searching for Reverse-line movement. Reverse-line movement refers to betting line movement that contradicts the public percentages.
For example, if Ole Miss has 75% of the overall betting wagers and Florida has 25%, but Florida’s odds go from -3 to -6 then we can assume that a large amount of money has come in on the Gators, and/or the bookmaker is taking a position on them. In others words, reverse-line movement.
This is not a perfect science, not every reverse-line movement is correct, but knowing which team has heavy traffic and who’s betting them, will help you be more efficient in handicapping games. No bet should be made until you have this data.
Good Luck!
Smitty
Greg Smith is a sports handicapper at Only Best Bets and writer for The Saturday Edge. You can follow Greg on Twitter throughout the college football season @onlybestbets.
9 thoughts on “Understanding Line Movement & Betting Volume”
Leave a Reply
MAXIMIZE YOUR EDGE
That’s good information – but how do you know which side has the most public money on it? In your example, you said Ole Miss had 75% of the action but the line moved against Florida from -3 to -6, thus indicating reverse line movement. How did you know that Ole Miss had 75% of the action in the first place? Where did you get that information reliably? Thanks.
Jeff
I think thats a good question and reliability is a huge issue. Even when you look at the odds on Bet% tab on pregame.com, you can never really be too certain where the justification is coming from. I agree with this article though. I don’t really change a play based on the line movement and Bet%, but it definitely makes me turn my nose up if something funky happens like in this example.
I have never seen or heard of pregame.com. Thanks for the link. It looks like a tout site, but it also looks like it could have some useful tidbits. I will say that their video bits are atrocious, I like your podcasts a lot better. But, of course, this is a quality site and they are a bunch of amateurs. 😉
Thanks BS – I only visit pregame for 2 tabs: the odds tab and the bet% tab.
And you’re right, it is a tout site ran by RJ Bell, and has talking heads such as Steve Fezziks and the likes.
That’s exactly the point I was trying to make. When seeing so much movement on a game, think twice before pulling the trigger. Chances are with over 60 games being played each Saturday, there are better plays on the board.
Smitty
Ever used scoresandodds? Pretty ez site to use just wondered what you thought about their #s? Do any of the Vegas books ever post their data?
Hi Jason, I have never used scoresandodds. I don’t know about Vegas books, but Bookmaker (for example) will show the percentage that has been wagered on each side.