5Dimes has put the over/under on regular season wins for Alabama at 11.5.  Obviously, that’s as high as it gets. For betting purposes, it’s 12-0 or bust. Even for Alabama, that’s quite a tall order.

Let’s first look at Nick Saban’s recent history before diving into a game-by-game analysis on the Tide’s chances of running the table.

Nick Saban arrived at Alabama in 2007, but the dynasty really didn’t begin, until the next year. Let’s examine Alabama’s regular season records since then:

2008: 12-0

2009: 12-0

2010: 9-3

2011: 11-1

2012: 11-1

Even during one of the greatest five year runs in college football history, Alabama has only made it through the regular season unblemished 40% of the time. The 2011 and 2012 teams were superior to the 2008 and 2009 teams, but their records do not reflect it. This goes to show that even if Alabama is by far the best team in college football in 2013, they could very easily slip up somewhere along the way. Running the table takes a significant amount of luck, even for a great team.

With that caveat out of the way, I can’t recall a schedule that looked more likely to result in a 12-0 record for Alabama in a long time. Let’s take a look game-by-game, with a win probability on a scale from 1-10 for each one.

Alabama 2013 Season Win Totals

Virginia Tech – Neutral field at the Chik-Fil-A Kickoff Classic in Atlanta, GA. Virginia Tech returns Logan Thomas, but this is an otherwise unimpressive team of late with little returning talent. Couple that with Saban’s immaculate record in big game season openers, and you have a recipe for another blowout victory.

Win probability: 9

@Texas A&M – A lot of people are already calling this the game of the year, and it will likely be the Tide’s toughest regular season challenge in 2013. Johnny Manziel returns, as does Jake Matthews and a slew of other talented players. That said, the Tide do get a bye week before this game, and Nick Saban’s record in revenge games is ridiculous: 7-1 at Alabama, 8-1 at LSU. Alabama shut down Johnny Manziel and the vaunted A&M offense over the final  three quarters of last year’s game, and I’d expect that to happen again in 2013. This is the only game of the season where Alabama won’t be a double-digit favorite (current Golden Nugget GOY spread is Alabama -6).

Win probability: 7

Colorado State: The only question here is how badly the Tide will beat the Rams.

Win probability: 10

Ole Miss: Hugh Freeze caused quite the stir over the past year or so. Not only did the Rebel Black Bears exceed expectations on the field in 2012, they landed a star-studded 2013 recruiting class that included the nation’s top prospect, Robert Nkemdiche. With those freshman ready to make an impact and several key players returning from last year’s team, Freeze’s squad is this year’s SEC West Dark Horse. Still, Alabama catches a break in this game. They get Ole Miss in Bryant-Denny Stadium for the second year in a row, thanks to conference realignment. As the first major home game for The Tide in 2013, it’s hard to imagine Saban would allow his team to come out flat with the expectations in Oxford higher than they’ve been in quite a while.

Win probability: 8

Georgia State: In all likelihood, this game will see the Tide’s fifth and sixth string running backs scoring touchdowns.

Win probability: 10

@Kentucky: It’s an SEC road game, but this isn’t basketball. Kentucky will likely reprise their 2012 role as the worst team in the conference.

Win probability: 10

Arkansas: Bret Bielema brings new life to the Razorbacks program, but with the massive exodus of offensive talent and the lack of any defensive talent to begin with, he will need time to rebuild.

Win probability: 10

Tennessee: Yes, it’s a rivalry game, but Nick Saban is 6-0 against UT since his arrival in Tuscaloosa, the game is at Bryant-Denny Stadium, and the Volunteers may be even worse than last year, when they went 5-7.

Win probability: 10

LSU: In my opinion, this will actually be the toughest game of the year for Alabama. This series is almost always very close, and home field advantage is no advantage at all. The road team in this series has traditionally fared much better. That said, the Tigers lose an exorbitant amount of talent from last year’s already underwhelming squad, and Les Miles will have his work cut out for him. The Tide do get a bye week beforehand, but it’s difficult to say whether that’s actually beneficial. This will be a physical contest.

Win probability: 7

@Mississippi State: People always bring up Mississippi State as a possible trap game for Alabama, and Alabama always crushes them. Still, following what should be a grueling contest with the Bayou Bengals, the Tide could get caught sleeping. But I’d say it’s more likely Alabama wins by 30+ than loses in Starkville.

Win probability: 9

Chattanooga: Seriously, why do these guys even bother getting off the bus?

Win probability: 10

@Auburn: Gus Malzahn will have his first opportunity as the head coach of the Auburn Tigers to sway the in-state tide, pun intended. There is talent on The Plains, but Chizik did a poor job of developing it. Additionally, neither depth nor experience works in the Tigers’ favor. Still, Malzahn’s upside as a coach is as high as just about anyone’s, this game is on the road, and the Iron Bowl can produce shocking results. Anything could happen.

Win probability: 9

There you have it. This is probably the easiest schedule Saban has encountered to date, although any SEC coach would tell you there’s no such thing as an “easy schedule” in this league. If the Tide start 4-0, the rest of the regular season basically hinges on the LSU game. It’s difficult to say whether I would pick Alabama to go 12-0 with a lot of confidence, but I’ll say this: this year’s as good a time as any.

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