Pezgordo’s 2012 Bowl Picks
49 thoughts on “Pezgordo’s 2012 Bowl Picks”
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MAXIMIZE YOUR EDGE
Funny…as soon as i read 8-0 on best bets i was thinking “that’s why you limit your bets..!!”
then the next sentence says that i’m going to say that exact same thing…
you, my friend, are a mind reader…
btw-i was on iowa and washington last year too…some how ended up doing pretty well but those bad beats certainly limited my gains during the bowl season
I knew you’d get a kick out of that. As soon as I saw the record I knew I was going to get read the riot act. LOL!
No real interest in betting every Bowl. Just interested in games where the line and reality are far away. BOL
tuck321, BOL to you too this bowl season and if you spot any of those games where the line & reality are far away, let me know. LOL!
I took utah st tt o34.5
couldn’t lay the 10.5 but toledo has one of the worst defenses in the whole country (107 ypp) and utah st is #10 ypp and have gone over this number 6 straight
I took Toledo +10.5 for a 1/2 unit. My numbers had Utah St scoring right around 35, so I can definitely see them going over 34.5.
hey pez!! how you doing man!! just wondering if there is any way you could get your ATS picks in thursday night?? that would be awesome if you could!
What’s up mark? I will try and get several picks posted this week. I don’t think I’ll have them all though. But if you need all the games by Thursday night I can certainly post my leans.
I’m leaning towards the under in the BYU/SDST game. The only thing that has me worried is that Mendenhall knows Rocky Long’s 3-3-5 defense pretty well. Plus I’m hearing that with BYU QB Nelson hurt, they plan on scrapping the under center I-Formation offense and play backup Lark strictly out of the shotgun to sling it to his playmakers at WR. He’s doing this because Lark is absolutely no threat to run, but he has a much better arm than Nelson, but lacks experience. Given a few weeks to prepare in this new offense, your guess is as good as mine how successful it will be. That’s the million dollar question. I heard this information is on the down low, and SDST doesn’t know yet what to prepare for with the BYU offense. They’ll be forced to prepare for both QB’s. But I don’t know how prepared they’ll be for the shotgun on every play. On the other side of the ball, I think BYU will shut down SDST’s run game. Which will force Dingwell to beat them. But I’ve heard he’s still rather limited as a passer. So I’m fairly confident of BYU’s D vs SDST’s O. It’s the other part that has me concerned.
The BYU offense would have to do a lot of improving in a short period of time to score more than 30 points, shot gun or no shot gun. I guess it is certainly possible, but I can only base my “predictions” on past performances, and the BYU offense has struggled all season against the better defenses on their schedule.
I agree that defensively BYU will limit SDSU’s run game and make Dingwell pass to beat them, which he probably won’t.
I just doubt this game goes over with these two offenses w/o a lot of help from short fields (off turnovers and STs) and/or some defensive TDs.
Ah, just saw that the BYU Under is play for you after I mentioned it in GoS’ thread. Good deal, good luck to us all on that one!
Thanks Paul. On paper this one looks good, as GS said, the key will be the SDSU defense. If they play well and contain BYU’s passing game, this one should fly under.
BOL to you this bowl season.
hey pez what are your thoughts on the Louisiana Laf and Boise St games ATS?
and the fresno st game as well?
hey pez sorry man for all posts on this page my computer is all screwed up and isnt showing if these posts are going through..but i know you might not be interested picking ATS for boise st, louisiana laf, and fresno st..but for those 3 games if you had to play them all who would you pick?? thanks bud and happy holidays!
No problem Mark. My preference for UW-Boise is under, but since I think it’ll be a low scoring game I’d take UW +5.
I haven’t looked at ECU-ULL in detail yet, but at first glance I’ll take ECU and the pints ATS.
I personally think Fresno should roll on SMU, but there is no way I will lay DD in a bowl game (I’ll leave that to Sabert. HA!) and the last time June Jones was back on the island I believe he rolled as a dog, so I’d lean the dog one more time. Big surprise!
UCF O/U down to 59 and TT down to 33.5. Any thoughts why?
I played it at 61.5 and 34.5.
I love this site, by the way. Great work
The only thing that I’ve seen is Ball State QB Wenning ruled out.
Well, now I’ve just read that Wenning will play, but won’t be 100%. Unusual line drop given that this is an indoor game.
Yeah I read where he will start and has been practicing for the last few weeks, but isn’t 100% in terms of mobility. Back up Page has experience.
It definitely didn’t stop me from adding to my UCF TT O 33 now (at 5Dimes).
hey pez! happy holidays to ya and hope all is well…just like you i have no idea how badly fresno st performed monday night..i know fresno st performs horribly in bowl games but def thought his was a much diff team ready to prove themselves but SMU was impressive and deserved to win..IF you had to pick three locks ATS for the following games what teams would you pick?ASU -14.5 Navy, AirForce -1.5 Rice, West Virginia -4 Syracuse, Oregon St -2 Texas, TCU -2.5 Michigan St, Vanderbilt -7 NC State, USC -9.5 Georgia Tech, Iowa St -1 Tulsa, LSU -4.5 Clemson..thanks pez
Thx Mark. Happy holidays to you too. Navy, Syracuse & Sparty are my favorites from that list.
why do you like navy pez? double digit spread?
Double digits for sure. Navy is also a potential running dog and i think (hope) they have just enough defense to stay within the number. 31-20 type of game?
i thought the same thing pez BUT WOW navy is getting destroyed
Damn, getting ugly. Navy has no answer for Devil offense and Devil D playing well. Didn’t help that Navy dropped that TD pass.
Just got to hope Devils get bored and make some mistakes.
Cuse looking good in the first half, but the game kind of reminds me of Rutgers yesterday. Complete domination and only up 1 score.
navy is giving up way too many asu one play drives ending in td passes…
Navy just doesn’t have the athletes to compete against a focused BCS-conference team.
Devils can name their score in this game.
why the hell did i take navy!!!!!! damn this is brutal
I’m definitely thinking the same thing right now. They will be the first DD dog this bowl season not too cover.
48-7 pez…dont worry man were getting 14.5 hahaha we still can get it bud
And that missed PAT by ASU could cost them. LOL!
TD NAVY!!!! if gee gee caught that td and navy didnt miss that 30 yd goal..wed have a good chance..pez what you think bud?? we still in it?? backdoor cover?? one can only hope haha
nevermind were done haha…one last question for ya…am i the only person in this world who thinks geno smith is extremely overrated? i dont know i could be wrong but i just dont see the hype?
Seems as though you get a little pressure on Geno he does turn bad quickly.
Devils need to call off the dogs now or the rest f the country will hate is for running up the score on one of the academies.
Hell if Gee Gee would just answer all of ASU’s TDs w/ a KOR TD we would have had a chance.
pez!! yo buddy!! happy new year to ya my man!awesome last game of 2012 with clemson taking lsu…with these four games i am listing which 3 LOCKS would you say you would go with?
TEXAS A&M -3.5 OKLAHOMA
OLE MISS -2.5 PITTSBURGH
ARKANSAS ST -3 KENT ST
ALABAMA -9 NOTRE DAME
which 3 of these games favorite OR underdog would you say you feel most confident in as LOCKS?
Happy New Year Mark. I like OU, Pitt and Notre Dame and will be on all 3 of those games myself.
Let’s start the New Year out with some winners.
Hey Pez do you like Wisconsin Stanford under 47?
Yes. I actually got it several weeks ago at 48.5. Since 48 is a key number and it went down to 47 before I could write it up, I didn’t include it in my picks.
It may go up on my book. The vig is on the over so it may budge. Ff not is 47 worth it in your opinion?
Wait to see if it hits 48. If it doesn’t I’d still play it at 47, just for a little less. I’m still thinking 24-21 or 20-17 type game.
Two really good D’s, both teams are run oriented and neither QB (or passing game) is very dynamic.
Hit 48. Thanks for the advice.
Excellent. I hope it works out for us. Good luck.
I am considering Oregon 1H -5.5 or overall -7.5. Any lean on this? I would parlay with the Under of 75 or 1H Under of 38…
Sorry for the delayed response William, I had left for the game about 15 minutes beforehand. Hopefully you played either of these plays, especially with Oregon being a great first half team this year.
I had actually considered the 1st half under myself, but instead I wagered another 1/2 unit on the game total.
I ended up Parlaying both scenarios (1H spread/1H Under and game spread/game Under) and covered both; a much needed win!!
Now considering the Under today for Ole Miss vs Pitt. Possible parlay of Ole Miss -3 w/ Under 55.
Excellent. I will definitely be looking at the under for that Ole Miss-Pitt game too. The unders have really been hitting the last few days. I considered the under in last night’s Cotton Bowl, but unfortunately went w/ OU instead.