SabertStxVii 2012 Bowl Picks
Welcome to Bowl Season. The 2012 Regular Season has come and gone, and hopefully everyone enjoyed the first year of Saturday Edge. As a whole website, we had a very solid season, and we all agreed that this was the most fun we’ve had during a CFB season in a long time. Before I get into my bowl picks, Just wanted to say a few things.
41 thoughts on “SabertStxVii 2012 Bowl Picks”
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MAXIMIZE YOUR EDGE
Thank you guys for doing this. This site is amazing and one of my favorite sites on all of the www. Lots of fun. This gives me a college feel all over again. Sitting around talking to my buds about football, chasing hot chicks and drinking beer. Nothing better!
Thats what life is all about, right?
Another great play with sound reasoning. I really enjoy reading why you like a side as much I like seeing who you like.
Another sound play.
Merry Christmas to you and your family saber,
whats up sabert! for the arizona game IF you had to pick that game against the spread would you go ARIZONA -9.5 or NEVADA +9.5? I know you are not crazy backing either team but if you had to who would you take?
according to you score prediction you have arizona winning by 10 so you would pick arizona to cover IF you had to pick a team to beat the spread?
Honestly my bet in a high scoring game would be on Nevada getting the points. If the game is high-scoring, meaning no one is playing defense, then I could easily see a late Nevada backdoor (hence why I kinda hate either side — betting on a backdoor is never good).
Great season this far buddy and I do like the lines on a few of the early bowl games. The Arizona game concerns me however, especially with two teams that like to run the ball. If either of them are able to shut down the others run game, even slightly, neither of them move the ball efficiently through the air. One dimensional teams, in this case two teams who are very much one dimensional and run the ball no less, seems like a risky play. Like the adjusted units, never understood blowing all your bank you worked all season to build just because it’s bowl season. Good luck the rest of the way mate!
Navy — thanks for the thoughts. I definitely see where you are coming from with these teams. I am banking on the fact that Nevada will continue to allow over 5 yards per rush, and Arizona will continue to allow around 4.5. Both of these teams are successful (extremely) at picking up 3rd downs conversions and both are top in top 10 of most first downs per game.
Like you mentioned, the adjusted units works in the case of managing your bankroll. If one of these teams does do what they haven’t really done all season, and stop the run, then so be it, it isn’t a huge play for factors such as that. I like it enough, and the standard deviation of scoring is low enough that I still see a pretty good % chance that this one goes over.
Goodluck to you as well in the bowl season!
Sabert, we got a great number on that Nevada/AZ over. It’s up to 79 now and may close in the 80’s.
Pez,
Got a great number, although it didn’t even matter. I know I have seen the stat on how many games the opening and closing number actually matter? You may know that one…glad we got off to a good start though.
Pac12, as usual, is still getting lucky!
I had the Nevada ML and in my bowl pool (only one who chose nevada). Stunned.
Nevada was the right side in my mind…great pick, but with defenses that bad, anything can happen.
hey sabert!! how you doing man!! just wondering if there is any way you could get your ATS picks in thursday night?? that would be awesome if you could!
hey pez what are your thoughts on the Louisiana Laf and Boise St games ATS?
Yo buddy- curious what you think of the Central Florida team total over at 34 vs the over bet you have posted since you are worried about Ball State’s offense showing up. I’ve noticed you haven’t put up a lot of side total plays this year and was wondering if it was for any reason.
Yo Fadaddy — I think the Team Total over 34 is a great bet, and could easily be played in place of the over. I was talking to JimmyShivers and Pez about this game, and I know they mentioned playing the team total for UCF as well.
I have tried to stay away from team total plays. I played a few earlier in the year, and I like them alot, but quite a few followers mentioned that they still do not have access to plays like this through their books. I think with all the time I spend looking at each individual bowl game, it would make sense to start playing some team totals as well.
Thanks for the comment.
hey sabert who would you play ATS spread for louisiana laf, boise st, and fresno st? who would you take in those games?
I’ll prob post soon but I think I’ll be on ULL and Fresno,and currently undecided on the Boise St. game. I haven’t given too much look on any of these though. Are you playing them for a pickem?
i juss have to go 3 for 3 on getting the spreads right for these three games…u like ULL, Fresno St, and Boise St or UW??
i def like ULL Fresno just like you said…but do you think UW can hang with Boise?? they are just so up and down UW
I’d take Boise too honestly. I hate that it is 3 favorites but it is what it is, those would probably be my picks.
Thanks TSE! What a strong start to this years bowl season.
Thanks for following and lets hope it keeps rollin!
UCF O/U down to 59 and TT down to 33.5? Any idea why?
My guess is sharp money. I don’t really know what it is, but I bet the public will hammer the over and get it back to 61/62 before gametime. I try not to follow steam to much and just play things where I like them at.
As I explained in the write-up, I have some correlated plays that hopefully will lead us to at least a 2-1 night. I have faith UCF moves the ball, leading towards the team total cover, and either the over or cover, depending on how Ball St plays, or possibly both.
Based on stats there is ZERO chance that Boise is going to get into the UW Red Zone 6-8 times today. Boise avg’s 4.67 RZ trips per game and they’ve only been in the red zone 6 or more times in three games this year … against Miami, OH, New Mexico and Colorado State. Three D’s who are nowhere near as good as UW’s.
Against the 4 best D’s Boise has faced this year they’ve been in the RZ 3 times against Sparty, 3 times against BYU, 4 times against Fresno State and 3 times against SDSU.
UW is allowing 3.18 trips into the RZ and not a single team all season has entered the UW RZ more than 5 times, And that includes Oregon, USC and Arizona … teams with far more potent offenses than Boise.
Without UW assistance (short fields off turnovers, poor ST’s, missed tackles), Boise “statistically” gets into the UW RZ 3 or 4 times today.
boise st so far looks dominating…washington has scored their 3 points for the day…boise st easily covers
pez good call on UW…great game!!
Thanks Mark, but I am still dumbfounded as to why they didn’t measure that 4th down play late in the 4th quarter. After UW stuffed Boise, that was the ball game. Yet not only did they not even measure it, but no one on the UW team or sideline protested or called a timeout. If the yellow line and the announcer were accurate, the spot was a good 6 inches short.
Of course that had no bearing on whether or not UW covered, but if I lose my PAC 12 vs SEC wager to Sabert by one game I am going to be pissed. LOL!
missed a decimal point in your ULL pick up top.
Merry crhistmas
christmas
hey saber! happy holidays to ya and hope all is well…just like you i have no idea how badly fresno st performed monday night..i know fresno st performs horribly in bowl games but def thought his was a much diff team ready to prove themselves but SMU was impressive and deserved to win..IF you had to pick three locks ATS for the following games what teams would you pick?ASU -14.5 Navy, AirForce -1.5 Rice, West Virginia -4 Syracuse, Oregon St -2 Texas, TCU -2.5 Michigan St, Vanderbilt -7 NC State, USC -9.5 Georgia Tech, Iowa St -1 Tulsa, LSU -4.5 Clemson..thanks saber
Glad to see we are on the same page regarding Baylor UCLA. A lot of love for UCLA but Baylor getting a fg was too good to pass up. I’ll be watching at a UCLA bar so should be fun times.
What we think happening with the bowl plays? Obviously not crushing the season ytd, but something worth noting…..bunch of unlucky runs (per each game) and the historical season stats do not justify the results of the bowl games.
Saber- although I agree with your twitter comments, I do not think you should stop releasing plays…it’s not like you are chasing plays here….just stick to the script and it will even out. Last thing I’d want to see is that you stay away from the model you have going and miss out on a few positive units tomorrow.
Saber, Thank you for the outstanding season. I appreciate all the hard work you and everyone at TSE put in this season. I love this site. Already looking forward to next season and hope TSE continues in the future.
Thanks again.
Lonnie
Lonnie,
Thanks alot for the kind words. It is visitors and contributors like yourself that helped make this such a great first year for all of us, writers and visitors combined. As the other guys agreed, this is the most fun we’ve had capping CFB in a long time. Everyone does better (and hopefully wins more money) when we can all share information in a streamlined manner.
Thanks again for commenting, throughout the whole season, and looking forward to next year as well. Would absolutely love you to discuss with us/Pez some suggestions or ideas you may have for the next season to make TSE better.
Enjoy the new year.