SabertStxVii Week 14 College Football Picks
Finally got things back on track last week reverting back to the positive side of things after a rough two week swing. The good thing about Week 12 and Week 13 was the fact that I still felt as though I was seeing most games correctly, which is important. Before getting into my week 14 college football picks, I want to address a few questions I have gotten via comments or to my personal email / twitter.
33 thoughts on “SabertStxVii Week 14 College Football Picks”
Leave a Reply
MAXIMIZE YOUR EDGE
Please do the Bowls with your individual picks. As early as possible. Thanks
when will your week 14 picks be up saber?? thanks man really appreciate it!
Will be up starting tomorrow. Getting stuff together now and analyzing the games.
Thanks for following.
I think you guys should do your picks in your own thread, but with a twist. Every Friday/Saturday, there is a thread with all TSE picks. I suggest you guys do the same for the bowls, being updated daily when one of you updates your own personal thread.
Continued success to all of you. Keep up the great work!
Saber, thanks for sharing this season. Shout out to GoSooners also as by reading his Rx thread for years I was turned on to this site.
I vote that you do individual threads. Tribe has a good idea to also have the consensus thread…if not too much trouble.
BTW, I didn’t want to lose Les Miles but I don’t have to like him. There’s only 4 coaches I would want if he was gone, two are named Kelly, one is a biker whoremonger, and the last is Satan himself. LOL
All good ideas, thanks Doogie and Tribe.
HAHA at your ocaches. That is really funny, but totally true I think if your in LSU shoes. Les is GREAT at recruiting, and has taken some gambles that have probably paid off, but in my coaching metrics, he doens’t rank highly. I judge a coach not only off of recruiting, but off of coaching decisions. 3D offense and defense, RZ offense and defense, penalties, 1D O and D, etc.
Les ranks 43rd this year! He’s been higher in years past, but they are just very penalized, and haven’t done great in RZ or on 3Ds. With the talent he has though, they will continue to be good, but the coaching is showing in some of the close games they had this year ie. Bama, Ole Miss, Arky.
ranking your bowl selections from favorite to least is very helpful. thanks for a great year.
I agree with everyone. A list of your bowl picks as well as ranking them from strongest play to weakest play would be great. The earliest you guys can make your selections the better.
Do your bowl picks daily. Posting them early may be convenient, but late info, injuries, etc…make it impossible to pick them all in advance and win consistently.
Post the picks the day of or the day before. I could care less if I have to check in one hour before kickoff if this allows you to make a stronger selection. You follow this process mostly during the season, why change for the bowls?
Individual threads for bowls, please.
I concur with Vito about not posting too early BUT whatever works best the capper is best for all that follow. Also, is it really necessary to have then ranked when you are already giving star(unit) ratings?
None of this really matters to me…just giving my 2cents and happy that you pick the bowls.
Thanks guys for all you do. Many of us have Bowl Pick Sheets where we have to pick the winners and also rank them according to which ones we are most confident about. If you could do something like that would be awesome.
I would like to see each of you have your own bowl thread and to update it as you go along through the bowl season and to post one or two days prior to the game.
For me personally I like the format that you guys have used all year long, posting individually and later having a summation post with everyone’s thoughts and plays.
I would like to thank each of you guys personally for your contributions as we all know how much time and effort handicapping takes and how much work goes into doing your due diligence in capping. Thank you.
This has been by far the best site for information on angles and information on the games with some guys that are passionate and knowlegable about the wagering of college football and that actually win and document the games. Thank you to Go Sooners who mentioned this in the RX and I have been following most of the season.
I would like to see the bowl picks put up individually in the threads, but I like the idea of all the collective picks for the Friday/Saturday/Sunday games or for the upcoming week like Monday-Sunday. Thank you.
could you also give us money to use in vegas to place these bets… i wouldn’t need much, only like 1K per play…
in all seriousness, I started following you guys this year and the commentary has been very insightful. I am up on the season more than I have ever been prior. you’re thought processes have helped make me a better player and I greatly appreciate it.
Saber – What do you think about tonight? I like the Rutgers D but if they get down a score or 2, is the O going to be able get some points?
Lonnie — you hit the nail on the head here. In full disclosure, I will not be playing this game due to too many moving parts for me.
First, injuries. Everyone has key injuries. Rutgers RB, Bridgewater, etc. If they all play, and thats an IF, there are a few ways I could see the game going.
I totally agree here that if Rutgers gets down a score or two, they may struggle to get back into it. Nova should be having a career year due to the fact he has 3 6’5+ monsters to throw the ball too, but he isn’t. I just don’t get the playcalling for Rutgers. They use Jamison too much and don’t utilize the outside, so I am always hesitant to take Rutgers unless they have a clear advantage on defense vs opponent offense.
Now, Rutgers D is great. I have it ranked 13th in the nation, without being adjusted for SOS. Ville is decent on offense, as long as Bridgewater plays he will be able to make plays.
These two teams play into each others strengths. Ville is great in the RZ on offense, and Rutgers is great on RZ D. Rutgers is AWFUL in RZ O, and Ville is bad in RZ D.
If I were to play this game, it would be Louisville + pts for a few reasons.
They are efficient at picking up 3D’s and Rutgers surprisingly isn’t as stellar stopping them. Secondly, Ville protects the ball better on offense and they are also penalized much less than Rutgers.
I think Strong will try to make a statement here and I think it is either a FG game to Rutgers, or a Ville straight up win, so I’d take the points if I were playing it.
Sabert any comments on FAU +9? My angle here is that U-LA-LA just accepted a bowl bid and the outcome of this game doesn’t really affect that. 9 is a lot to give a home team playing it’s last game of the year who has also been on an ATS tear. FAU played Navy tough and beat WKU on the road, so they can play well. Just curious what your system says. I have this number right at 9 actually, but I’m playing the situational angle.
I have this game at about exactly 10, not factoring in home field advantage or anything else. Both coaches are actually about the same skill level for me.
What I don’t like is LA-Laf kills it in the red zone. FAU can definitely play up to teams, but they just aren’t that great.
What you have to keep in mind with regard to motivation here is the fact that yes La La made a bowl, but what does that change? If they had a game next week and it was their conference championship game, or a game that really mattered, then they may rest players, not open up their playbook, etc. I think they still care about this one, but how much?
I think even without the motivation, FAU in their last home game being a double digit underdog has some value, but I have this one at about 10 and has a high likelihood of ending at FG differential, either up or down.
I’m also looking at Georgia. I’m starting to see some 8.5’s pop up (5Dimes). I’m also considering taking the over 51. I think it will be a higher scoring game than people think.
I’m liking the under, waiting to see if it goes to 52. UGA has played 2 legit D’s all season and scored 7 and 17 points. Bama has held every team they played this year below their offensive season avg by DD. That’s unreal. Georgia will struggle to score 20 points. UGA D is finally playing the way we thought they would. 24-21 type game IMO.
Pez, why am I not surprised you like the under. Don’t you realize these teams are going to be tied 24-24 when they go into overtime?
HA! That’s why I need 52 so someone kicks the winning FG for a 27-24 final.
saber..what would you call 3 locks for saturdays games only?? thanks man!
Right now I like NIU, Pitt and UGA. Will probably add UCLA later on which you could sub out for UGA if you want.
my vote is for you ( and the others) to have one bowl thread each, updated periodically with your latest picks.
Most important, thanks for all your great input and help this year. I hope to see more of you in 2013
I like the idea of individual recommendations v. all on a single game.
Thanks to all of you for your thoughts this past year..
I like your individual thoughts, most of the time you
agree, however when you don’t their are some great
points to consider..
looking forward to your bowl plays
Saber – Wanted to see if you had any thoughts on the Tulsa/UCF game. I have Tulsa +10 in a teaser. Thanks.
Good luck this weekend.
UCLA now up to +10 on my square book. I think it is Hammer Time.