Who to bet on Week #14 – Championship Week: Sides and Totals to consider
UCLA RB Johnathan Franklin
Pac 12 football - UCLA RB Johnathan Franklin
The Saturday Edge capping team ended the week 16-16 (15-16 on posted plays and 1-0 on the newsletter exclusive pick). However, considering we had 4 cappers on the Florida – Florida State total, that loss was brutal to the overall record, but if we just count each game as 1 winner or 1 loser (no doubles, triples, etc), this week I believe we would have been 14-10 overall. Something to consider for next season’s record keeping process.
Tags BoiseKent StateNevadaNIUOklahomaStanfordTCUTulsaUCFUCLA
- Previous Maggiore’s Big 10 Football Picks – Week # 13
- Next GoSooners College Football Picks for Week # 14
16 thoughts on “Who to bet on Week #14 – Championship Week: Sides and Totals to consider”
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MAXIMIZE YOUR EDGE
I agree with a couple of your games, Pez. UCLA +10 (or 9) is a huge overreaction to Stanford’s win last week. Also, I think Northern Ill is a much more solid team than Kent State, and I’d take that line all the way up to 7.
OL,
I also like and played NIU and UCLA, but I’m not sure how you can call the line of -10 an overreaction. Since Stanford is going from playing a road game to a home game here, wouldn’t you expect about an 8 point swing? Seems perfectly reasonable imo..
Stanford-UCLA opened up at pick ’em last week, and 10 this week. I guess I just expected the spread to be around 6 or 7 at most, given the flip in home field advantage. I was pretty surprised to see it open up at double digits.
I can see both sides of the discussion. The game opened as a pick and closed at Stanford -3. Now the game is being played in Palo Alto, so HFA would add another 3, 4 or even 5 points to the spread. That still only gets us to 7 or 8 points. So just looking at the game from the perspective of “line value” I thought DD was a little high.
On the other hand Stanford did just beat them by 18 points on the road, so jimmy’s perspective of the 7-8 point swing being “reasonable” also has merit.
Pez,
I played all of those on open except for Tulsa, where I don’t really have a strong opinion. Got pretty good numbers on UCLA, TCU but got worse numbers on Nevada and NIU. Really like your lean list though
jimmy,
Nevada now up to 10. Time to take a look at that game in more detail.
Nice picks this week. I like the Bruins in that game to win out right. I would probably take OU over TCU up to 8 points though. I also like your NIU and Nevada and Tulsa picks. When are we gonna talk about the BIG GAME… Alabama/Georgia? Right now i’m on Alabama -8, what say you?
My first lean was towards Georgia and the 8, but I actually thought it might get bet up a little higher and I sadly didn’t jump on them.
Game looks pretty even to me. Two good D’s, average offenses w/ game manager QBs (I know both are rated pretty high in terms of pass efficiency, but in the only two games each QB played vs teams w/ a defensive pulse, those efficiency ratings dropped pretty drastically). Neither team has played much of a schedule, especially by SEC standards. Each team played 2 tough SEC games an split them and both played the usual SEC cupcake OOC schedule (Bama did play Michigan, but they also had 5 weeks to prepare for a one dimensional QB).
I still lean Georgia and the points.
I know you are the unders king Pez, so what do you think about the Rutgers/Ville (43.5) & TCU/Okl (60.5) unders. Both Rutgers & Ville are banged up at QB & RB and both play solid D. As for Okl, they only managed 17 & 13 pts vs KSU & ND both in Norman. I don’t think they put up the 28+ points they probably need to make this go over against a tough TCU D on the road.
Riley, I definitely like OU/TCU U 60.5. All my numbers suggest mid-50’s tops for this one, but my correlations lean more towards the over mainly because of OU’s offensive potential. Nevertheless I have already wagered this one at 60.5.
I haven’t gone into detail w/ Louisville-Rutgers yet, but just taking a quick looks at my numbers, 40.5 seems to be the top end. 43.5 is a bad number though, right between key numbers 42 and 45 (44 is also a pretty strong number).
I just got my sheets with the following lines… What does everyone think? I have my picks in mind but want to get some opinions.
Cinci at Conn.+6
Pitt at USF+7
OU at TCU+7
Texas vs KSU-10
OSU vs Baylor+6
Boise St. at Nevada+10
Kansas at WVU-20
Alabama-10 vs Georgia
FSU vs G.Tech+14
Nebraska-4 vs Wisky
For what it is worth, here are my early leans on your numbers without putting them through my system.
KSU (-10)
OSU (-6)
Nevada (+10)
WV (-20)
Georgia (+10)
I will post comments on these when I run them through my system.
PSU Justin, just looking at those numbers you should definitely think about taking UGA and Wisky. Those are good lines.
MoMoney, I’m on Nevada +10. My number was actually Boise -13, but I think Nevada’s “negative” numbers are a little skewed after that poor performance against Fresno in which their offense set up the Bulldogs w/ several 3rd quarter points and short fields.
I’m definately leaning Pitt and WVU. I was thinking about taking KSU, Georgia, Florida State and Wisky. I’ll have to look into the nevada and baylor games.
Anyone backing FAU +9 at home. U-LA-LA already secured their bowl bid so maybe a situational spot here? FAU also has been impressive ATS.