Pezgordo’s Week # 12 College Football Picks
Pezgordo’s College Football Picks – YTD: 73-58 ATS
5-6 last week. I went 4-4 on posted picks and 0-1 with the newsletter ML parlay selection. I really blew it with my two late adds last week and I have been chastised by Trentmoney for turning a winning week into a loser. In this case Trent is 100% correct as the two late adds were “marginal” selections, at best.
Tags IllinoisIowa StateKansasNorth Carolina StateOhio StateOle MissPurdueTennessee
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26 thoughts on “Pezgordo’s Week # 12 College Football Picks”
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MAXIMIZE YOUR EDGE
Pez, I know you are the king of unders…what is the thought of Army vs Temple? Almost too bad of defenses that some silly scores might happen?
Both teams run the ball a TON, eating up clock, and both teams kinda suck in the red zone and capitalizing. Thoughts?
Sabert, my numbers and correlations suggest over, mainly because these two D’s suck. Army is a strange team, sometimes they score a lot of points, sometimes they struggle, but they always seem to allow a lot of points.
The Temple defense is terrible. I think Army beats them and I will take it a x closer look at the side.
I like the Tennessee play. Thinking about getting that one too.
GS, I used the Vols as our weekly SEC video pick (8-3 YTD). I’ll have a short write-up on them later today or tomorrow and the video should be up soon.
Hopefully Dooley can get them focused enough to play well. Motivation shouldn’t be a problem as they can still become bowl eligible w/ a win over Vandy & UK next week.
Pez BOL with ALL or your action this week. Its almost time for a Strong weather total under. The SE part or the nation might hold a wind or rain under this week. You are most certainly the King of unders.
I myself like that Kansas home dog, along with Baylor another Big 12 home doggie.
Great website guys, I’ve followed your picks every week as of probably a couple of months ago. I play with a local and wanted your opinions… I’m taking Northwestern(+7), UCLA(+4), Miami(-7), Ohio State(+3), Oklahoma(-14) and LSU(-20). I think they are solid picks any thoughts?
Justin — thanks for following. I think you have some quality picks. I’ll comment on a few.
I think OSU can win, therefore obviously cover. I am looking at taking them myself. Wisco has been beating up on crap teams and Urban has an extra week to prepare and something to prove.
I like Oklahoma too. They have a good pass defense, and SHOULD absolutely torch the WVU defense if Landry has any amount of time.
I think you definitely got the better of the LSU number. I think this one can be close. If Ole Miss scores 2 TDs I think you’re in trouble, although LSU should be able to grind away points.
The others I haven’t looked at too much to comment.
Justin, we’re glad you like the site and thanks for the comment/question. My first suggestion would be to skip OU & LSU at those numbers. OU is currently -11 and you can get LSU -18. That doesn’t mean they won’t cover those spreads, but you want to avoid bad numbers as much as possible.
I like Ohio State this week and I’ll write-up a brief summary of why I like Ole Miss, but it is mainly comes down to the combination that the Rebels should score 13-17 points, LSU has struggled on offense all season and Ole Miss has traditionally played the Bayou Bengals tough in Baton Rouge (for whatever reason).
I will be looking at both USC/UCLA and USF/Miami today, but must admit I lean Trojans and Bulls. UCLA is greatly improved this year, but I don’t know that they are improved enough to beat the Trojans. Plus there is a big QB mismatch w/ Barkley vs the frosh Hundley.
Thanks for the suggestions. Hopefully it works out. My pick sheets use NCAA and NFL games. Only specific NCAA games are listed so I take the ones I think would hit. Here are my 2 tickets worth of picks.
Ticket 1 (5 Team pick 15 to 1 odds) – Miami(-7), UCLA (+4), Green Bay Packers (-3), Cinci Bengals (-4), New Orleans Saints (-7).
Ticket 2 (10 team pick 150 to 1 odds) – Northwestern (+7), Clemson (-19), Oklahoma (-14), Wake Forest (+24), Ohio State (+3), Tampa Bay Buc’s(-3), St. Louis Rams (-4), Indy Colts (+10), Baltimore Ravens (+3), Chicago Bears (+6).
I know you guys don’t dabble in NFL games on your site but i just added those anyway. I understand the lines move but these are established Tuesday Morning and handed out. I like my odds on most of those picks but for what was available on the card i took the best options. I’ll let you know how they play out Tuesday morning.
Good luck on your picks guys.
PS. I left off the LSU pick based on your words of wisdom.
P.S.S. I’m a huge PSU fan and follow the Big Ten like crazy. If you ever need some write-ups on big ten games, I could help you out if you’d like. I don’t have professional software just 20+ years experience in watching big ten games.
BOL this weekend Justin. I hope the Ole Miss game works out for me and I didn’t get you off a winner.
When you get a chance send me an email at: pezgordo@saturdayedge.com. We have a few other Big 10 guys that are interested in contributing their insights and ideas about the conference, and I am thinking of some ways we can do that this off-season and for next season especially.
Perhaps we could do a weekly Big 10 article like OpeningLine does w/ his weekly trends and situations.
Pez,
I’d like to get your side perspective on Illinois – Purdue this week.
I have been fading the Illini most of the year but now they are getting 7 at home against a bad team in Purdue. I watched them the last 2 weeks and they have the talent to win this game IMO. Do you think vegas has over compensated the line here making a 4-6 team with a bad defense a TD favorite on the road?
My 2 Cents:
Illini rank 121st in scoring offense, and they are allowing 31 point per game (91st in def.). Illini are giving up nearly 400 ypg while only gaining 270. They run first and stick with it but Purdue has a solid d line. I don’t see them being able to score enough to cover. Purdue has been slumping lately and just barely beat Iowa last week 27-24 (even though Iowa is fading to). Purdue is averaging over 400 ypg in there last 3 so they should be able to move up and down the field against the terrible Illinois d.
There is no way i would take this game but if you have to i suggest Purdue (-7).
Tennessee could have gone bowling with a win in the final game last year vs a HORRIBLE kentucky team
they didn’t go bowling
vandy hasn’t beaten tenn since 2005, meaning no one on vandy has beaten tenny…last year they lost in OT by a 90yd int TD return…game notes say they haven’t won in nashville since 1984
you don’t think they will be motivated??
and now you’re counting on dooley to motivate his team??
Vandy on 4 game winning streak
Vols 1-13 in SEC over last 2 yrs, winless this season
good luck
you’re gonna need it…
hahaha
I never suggested Vandy wouldn’t be motivated. I am sure they will be, especially since the Vols own them and Dooley celebrated last year saying as much.
Phil Steele says UT has won 14 straight trips to Nashville (last loss ’82).
Vols may only be 1-13 in the SEC over the last 2 years, but we know who they beat.
I still think it will be a close, one score type game.
Tennessee game notes say 1984
If they’re as bad as their team then Phil might be right
otherwise i would defer to the SID
hard to put good, hard-earned cash on that team right now
and as i said, they should have been motivated last year and we saw what happened…
Agents whispering in their ears:
“Stop listening to Derek Dooley
Start listening to Benjamin Franklin”…
good luck bro
Derek’s swan song. He’s going out a winner. HA!
Unfortunately it looks like the Tennessee SID is as bad as their team:
Dec 01, 1984 Tennessee AT Vanderbilt (W) 29 – 13
Nov 26, 1983 AT Tennessee Vanderbilt (W) 34 – 24
Nov 27, 1982 Tennessee AT Vanderbilt (L) 21 – 28
URGH!
my bad…it says a win would be 15th consecutive since 1984…that usually means they lost then but he meant including 1984
that’s a good sign for you…ineptness in the SID dept usually trickles down to the field
hahaha
Hey Pez, would love your thoughts on USC. I posted mine in Sabert’s thread so I won’t overlap too much, but I really like USC to win and cover. They have the advantage in several key categories and where UCLA does have the advantage, it isn’t by much. Add in the fact that this is essentially the reason Matt Barkley came back, I just don’t see this team not playing super motivated. Sure, UCLA will be motivated, but they are led by a freshman at QB and a first-year coach. The fans will be 50/50, so HFA is kind of a wash to me (USC is closer to Pasadena than UCLA). USC -3 is a great number to me. I think I remember seeing this at the Nugget for -17sh in July.
Seth, I’m working on this game as we speak. My numbers have it a little closer than I expected. I have USC -1.5 using overall numbers. But using just PAC 12 numbers I have USC -7.5.
But I do like some of the intangibles you mention, especially Barkley v Hundley. Hundley is good, but Barkley and the Trojans have a lot more experience.
I’ve always felt that HFA is more than just the crowd. It is familiarity with the surroundings, home routine vs travelling, etc. But definitely agree that the Bruin HFA is minimized in this situation.
With the Rose Bowl possibly on the line, I am definitely leaning Trojans right now. Would really love to see it go down to 2.5, but really doubt it does so.
I’ve been watching USC for several years. They usually don’t win the close games, so that is why I like the spread. I think they either win by 2tds or lose.
Wisconsins O-Line is playing a lot better now than they were early in the season. Having said that, they will start a 3rd string QB against the #6 team in the country. If the game is close down the stretch (or Wisky falls behind), it may be a tough spot for the inexperience QB to come back from.
Also, Wisky’s D is average at best. Ohio State (and particularly Braxton Miller) used a much needed bye week to rest up and focus their attention on this game. The three points are nice to have for insurance, but I like OSU outright in this game.
Agreed. I really liked your ATS info about Meyer. That was some good info to know.
Uh oh, Phil Steele “boldly” picked Wisconsin to win by 10.
Hey Pez, if you have time would love to know your thoughts on BYU -3. I’m familiar with the explosiveness of SJSU’s passing attack but I think BYU can get pressure on their qb. However, this line looks like a trap.
Seth, I got BYU +2.5 on a neutral field, so the line looks pretty accurate. Because BYU struggles to score, I’d be hesitant to lay the FG on the road. Mormans definitely have the defensive edge.