SabertStxVii Week 12 College Football Picks
Obviously nowhere near the week I wanted last week on the week when I had the most units out there. But hey, it’s gambling. If you don’t learn something every single week, and update and make your system better, than you might as well just stop. The technology is changing and the book is changing, so you better too. Before I get into this weeks College Football Picks, I want to go over what happened last week, not just with my plays, but in the NCAA.
- Previous Who to bet on Week #12: Sides and Totals to consider
- Next GoSooners College Football Picks for Week # 12
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MAXIMIZE YOUR EDGE
You forget to mention in the Penn State game that Penn State had a clear touchdown (at least to me) and it was ruled a fumble and touchback on the field and after review. That completely changed the cover probability.
I had Army +17.5. It was brutal and brought back flashbacks of the Iowa Oklahoma bowl game last year (even though this was worse IMO).
I still have freaking nightmares of that Iowa – OU bowl game. Belldozer left, Belldozer left, Belldozer left ……. Gee I wonder what OU will run on 4th down ….. and there wasn’t a single Hawkeye (or two or three) over on the left side to tackle the guy?
Definitely agree about the Penn State TD too. How can they possibly review that and say the ball was coming out before it hit that defenders knee …. which just happened to be after it crossed the goal line.
“How can they possibly review that and say the ball was coming out before it hit that defenders knee …. which just happened to be after it crossed the goal line.”
— I didn’t believe any of the conspiracies out there about Big 10 refs screwing psu, but that call really made me think. It might not be an organized effort but I think some refs may certainly be doing it (subconsciously or on purpose). The Ohio State game was also one of the most one sided referee jobs I have ever seen.
totals and team totals? come on sabre stick with what got you here?
playing sides so what you had a bad week 1 bad week in 11
and now your changing everything up? team totals?
in my opinion a bad move
stick to what i bet have your followers can get down on sides
most followers go through locals and they dont have team totals
your hitting 65 70 percent on sides
with the bad week
why would you want to do a 180 now?
think about this sabre
I agree…. Don’t let one had week change your game. I go through a local and he doesn’t offer half totals and team totals. Just game totals and sides…
I agree with you Sabre, books have adjusted and so must the average bettor. They have however not looked at sides or totals as much this year. They have remained consistent and there is tremendous amount of value/money to be made there to those that bet them. Worst week I have seen you have as far as units lost, it happens but if you don’t examine why and then adjust to where there is profit to be made, then you are going to see a more difficult run the rest of the season. Just my opinion, but you play your plays because they make you money, you are not a paid service and you don’t owe it to me or anyone else to provide picks…straight or otherwise.
All — thanks for the comments. I wasn’t posting these to make excuses for my poor week 11 (honestly, I was surprised a week like this hadn’t happened sooner). I was posting these to show that there is so much variability within this field, that you have to take the good with the bad.
3 of those plays up there I was on, and I still believe that the 3 I played were the right side. You switch those 3 games and I go 6-4 and make everyone alot of money again. My worst play last week was unfortunately my biggest, in Tulane. That was the wrong side, I have learned, updated my system and taken note, and move on. You have to have a short memory in this business.
With that being said, I was unaware of how many followers were using locals. Even locals I have dealt with, alot of them run their system off of a prominent site, ie. Bovada, so there is access to different plays.
I still stand by the fact that you have to continue to adjust if you want to make money. Trends die, systems die, and you have to make the change.
I will however, not change the approach I use. Everything will still be the same. Keep in mind up in the main post I said, “I look to play team totals and halfs a bit more this week, possibly.” I will still be playing mostly sides, and may even dabble in an O/U this week that right now I see to have lots of value. But, I may add one or two team totals or half bets as well. There will be plenty for all, no one worry.
what about your basketball picks ?
Ivan — working on developing/perfecting the system now and look to roll it out a bit after football season is over. Something I learned from RAS is focus on what you’re good at, which for me is obviously CFB. Stretching yourself too thin will make your good picks, not as good, and won’t let your new sport or picks develop. Trust me in that I will make us more money focusing on CFB than I will if I start working on CBB too much.
It is in the back of my mind though and I have started analysing different things.
i understand , where we will see your basketball picks ,when you start, in this sait or other place?
I will keep you posted on where they will be. I don’t think they will be on this site due to this site being CFB, but we do have some details in the works to develop this site to other sports as well and get quality cappers from all angles on here.
Thanks, waiting Development
The bottom line is the oddsmakers get very sharp this time of year. I rememeber seeing a bunch of close to the spread finishes last year in November. I think the only real advantage you have over them this month is situational spots and spotting young teams on the improve at the end of the season. Most of the games that finished close to the spread this past weekend really didn’t have good situational spots that would have given either team an advantage on the line. As a result we had a lot of nailbiters.
Agree GS, the spots get tighter toward the end of the year and have to start looking at situations.
Was ironically just looking at your boys. I know playing in M-Town is tough but they play well into the strength of this shoddy WVU team. Their secondary is strong as they’ve been holding teams under their average passing yards per game.
This WVU defense is atrocious (I have it ranked 87th overall). Okla should be able to do what they want to move the ball. I see them covering the 2 score spread.
Okla still sitting within BCS reach with some good wins; they still have some motivation I think.
Thoughts here?
Saber, I’m probably not the right person to ask about OU. I’m kind of disappointed with my Sooners this year. I never know which team is going to show up from week to week. Landry Jones is kind of a Jekyll and Hyde QB. You give him the time and he’ll kill you. You put a little pressure on him and he’ll fold like a cheap tent. I was also disapponted with the 250+ rushing yards OU gave up last week to Baylor.
I have serious doubts that OU has the front lines on either side of the ball to be in consideration as a BCS type of team. I think the only team from the Big 12 that is going to a BCS bowl is Kansas State. I still feel OU will lose another game. More than likely at TCU. I think OU will beat WV. But I don’t like this point spread. These point spreads are creeping higher and higher with WV. Sooner or later they’re going to cover. They’ve gone from being -2 to KSU to 10+ to OU in just 4 weeks.
These past two road games for WV hasn’t been kind to them. Mainly because Geno Smith has had to deal with 30 mph winds in both of those games against OSU and TT. WV doesn’t have a good enough run game to take up the slack for a lack of a downfield passing game in those conditions. But this weekend it’s supposed to be 50 degrees and bawlmy. Which should be ideal conditions for Smith to hook up with Austin and Bailey. And I’m not sure OU has the front 7 to be able to put the pressure on Smith. So this has the makings of a good old fashioned shootout. The one thing going for you if you do like OU. This has been a totally opposite team than Stoops teams of the past few years. They have actually played better on the road than they have in Norman.
Sabert, and anyone else, I would love your opinion(s) on USC -3. I haven’t seen anyone bring up this spread. I know it opened on my book at -4, and subsequently dropped to -3. Since I am on a very square book, I am assuming sharp money is on UCLA and the public is on USC.
That aside, I looked at some key statistics. Specifically, Offensive/Defensive RZ Scoring %, Third down conversion %, Rushing offense/defense YPC, Passing offense/defense YPC. USC has the edge in defensive RZ scoring %, rushing defense YPC, Passing Offense and Defense YPC, and total offense YPC. In the categories where UCLA is better, they aren’t that much better. USC has a clear advantage in redzone defense.
Also, it is a 3-point spread and USC’s lowest margin of victory is 10. The trend this year is when a game is close, they lose it, but I don’t know that this game will be close in the 2nd half (similar to ASU game). Matt Barkley came back because he had “unfinished business” and I really doubt the four-year starter is going to play a bad game against UCLA because he knows this is his, and all the seniors that stuck by this team during the sanctions, last chance to get to a BCS game (they of course have to beat Oregon). I just don’t see UCLA having the same leadership and intangibles edge with a freshman at qb.
I live in LA and most people I talk to here think UCLA will win based on the eye test. I disagree and think Matt Barkley rises to the occasion and beats UCLA by 2 tds. Full disclosure though, I come from a Trojan family but I honestly fade them a lot more then I bet on them.
Seth — first off, really good analysis of this game.
Here is what my stats suggest. The offenses are nearly identical. USC actually has a better defense, although not by tons.
You hit the nail on the head with RZ D. USC ranks 31 while UCLA ranks 104. Although, UCLA ranks 13th on 3rd down def with SC ranking 46.
I have USC having a worse coach. I thought it was attributed to the fact that USC is SO bad with penalties and turnovers, but UCLA is actually worse with penalties and only a tiny bit better at protecting the ball.
Finally, my stats have this game as a pk on neutral field. I have UCLA scoring 2 rushing TDs and 2 passing, and I have USC scoring 1 on the ground and 3 through the air.
On the motivation side, I think you may be looking a little bit too much into Barkley’s head. Who knows why he stayed? Maybe because he had insurance on his arm and he has a serious GF. Maybe he wanted to be the #1 pick? Who knows. I think in this type of game, both teams will be motivated. It’s 18-22 year old kids, in a rivalry game. It shouldn’t take much.
The one thing to remember is what would we have thought if this was a week 1 matchup? You think USC kills them, but now, we know that USC hasn’t played to their potential. I see USC being able to do whatever they want on offense, can they get some stops? Probably.
Gun to my head I’d probably take the Trojans, although my lines say to stay off.
True, I cannot know exactly why he stayed but I do know this. He has been a Trojan fan since he was a kid, he always wanted to be a Trojan, and he stayed to be the statistical leader in several qb categories and to get USC to a BCS bowl game (at least that he was he says). The general feeling I get from fans is that his legacy will be somewhat tarnished if he loses to UCLA. USC has definitely played under their potential and a lot of blame has to fall on the coaching staff. After Mike Brown’s dismissal, there is a lot of buzz that Kiffin is now on the hot seat. I don’t know about all that but my gut feeling is we see USC play a complete game and win convincingly. This could be more hope than logic, but I think getting 3 points is a decent 1-2 unit bet, and hey, accuscore is on my side, haha.
And also, thank you for responding. Great site!
I haven’t seen any info on here on a few games I am looking at and I would love all of your insight. There are some games I am looking to make plays on and just looking to narrow it down. Any information that you guys can provide would be appreciated.
Utah St (-3) vs LA Tech
Nevada (-10) vs New Mexico
FAU(-2) vs FIU
Rutgers (+6.5) vs Cincinnati
BYU vs San Jose St (+3.5)
BOL to all of you this week!
MoMoney,
I selected the Utah St/LA Tech game as my featured write-up, found here.
Some info on the Nevada and FAU games can be found in my Quick Hitters segment.
I posted my rationale for the Rutgers-Cincy game on Sides and Totals to consider.
Hope this helps.
Forgot to include the link. Utah St-LA Tech breakdown: tinyurl.com/olscfbblog
Didn’t see the sides and totals to consider link,where can that be found.
Thanks for the posting I will check it out as soon as I can find it.
Sides and Totals can be found on the TSE homepage, starting out “Who to bet on in week #12”..here’s the link:
https://dailysportsedge.com/6082/who-to-bet-on-week-12-sides-and-totals-to-consider/
Also, Jimmyshivers is playing Utah St and we have some ideas going back and forth in the comment section on his page this week too.
Sabert – Checking to see if this is your final card for this weekend? Or are there going to be more than 4 plays? Thx
I just added a play and will look to add one or two more. Tight card this week and trying not to force anything bad.
Sorry if this has been mentioned before, and I am repeating a quesiton but it doesn’t look like your units totals include juice? Does your book not have you paying juice?
Thanks
No worries, has not been asked and is a good question. I sadly do pay juice.
For simplicity reasons and consistency, I don’t factor in juice to my unit total. When I lay a bet, I lay X to win whatever unit value I say. Every line I list is listed at -110 or -105. I’ll never list a line that is in movement to a worse number at -120. If I do, I will say to buy the hook. At the end of the season I factor it in to my “record.”
Been lurking around on your site all year. Great stuff, just love the site. Really looking forward to your CBB picks after CFB is done. And RAS is a great example. They are on fire.
Hope that team totals and halves get talked about more, some very nice trends in those areas. One I’ve done throughout the year, is Penn St, first half, been very solid. That said, don’t think I’d play that this week, agree with the Indiana pick. But that is the fun of halves, your team can end up losing the full game ATS, but wins 1st half. Just another opportunity to make cash, potentially. Still licking my wounds from Penn St and Ole Miss last week. Ouch… Thanks again, amazing info.
love your last week game analysis. I suffered too with that late scenario in the Neb-PSU game.Sometimes I root against myself. Last week, that was the case when I was rooting for Nebraska to get that first down. Once they failed, Bo had no choice but to kick the FG (and cover)_A week earlier, I suffered through that Nebraska-Sparty ending also. It still hurts.
A week or so ago, you posted the data elements on which you primarily base your handicapping – recognizing that first and foremost you and I are both situational handicappers.
I have been posting to a spreadsheet for reference ( and maybe digital exercise) first downs; total yds; yds rushing; av gain per rush; Passes attempted, completed, intercepted, and yardage gained. Detail of Defensive and ST td’s; turnover differential, and TOP differential.
I think I am focusing on wrong stuff, /?
Could you please repeat what you previously said as to the data elements you do keep track of and comment on any I could eliminate. Much appreciated.
Marv — sorry I am just getting to this.
The way my system works is a few steps. I have a score predictor that basically takes the averages of Team A and puts the magainst the averages of Team B. This basically shows “if Team A is really good at passing, and Team B has a terrible secondary, Team A should score this many passing TDs.” Most of this part of the system is based on yards. Yards are what you need to pick up to score. You can get yards from turnovers, penalties, and getting first downs.
From there, I have a correlation matrix and coaching matrix. These help me accurately assess unit value. I think this is what you are speaking too. On offense, the Top few things that correlate with winning and scoring points are:
Yards per Pass
3rd Down Conv
Yards per Carry
Total Pass Yds
Compl %
RZ TD%
Total Rushing Yards
I then do the same on defense (remember for most of these, the lower the better):
Total Yards
Yards per Play
Average Pass Yds
Average Rush Yds
3rd down D
RZ D TD%
TFL
Sacks
Things that I would really focus on though are RZ stuff, 3rd down stuff and passing. Each stat tells you a different story. I think Sacks allowed and YPR tell you how good an OL is. Yards per Pass tell you what type of offense a team runs and how good the WR/QB are in space. It can go on and on and you can use stats to match up in your system.
Thanks so much Saber.
Most of those are available to me in the places where I look.
As I suspected, I’ve been putting the wrong emPHAsis on some of the syllables.
GL
Really enjoyed cfb this year! Would like your picks on cbb when you are ready. Loved Ol Miss and Bama