Jimmyshivers Week 12 ACC Football Picks
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22 thoughts on “Jimmyshivers Week 12 ACC Football Picks”
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MAXIMIZE YOUR EDGE
I don’t think you have enough plays jimmy…
haha
Just taking stabs at what I felt were bad numbers on open, most have moved my way. May get off a couple. I figure you probably love UVA this week though, great combination of thart short week/road travel spot with a UNC team that got beat up last week. UNC also drawing dead w/ regards to postseason play, think there is a more than decent chance they flat-out don’t show up. Wahoos finally clicking offensively and actually won a close game last week, playing to keep their bowl hopes alive. Think the doggie wins in Charlottesville.
Definitely bad spot for unc…hard to say they won’t show up for a stand-alone, national TV game, but laying those pts is tough in that spot…confused with the qb situation at uva…i played them (at a bad number for a push) vs miami as that also tied in with my u7 miami play
i’ve been good with my sides this year, but my most profitable plays have been my totals, so i’m trying to stick mostly with them…i do think you’re in a sweet situational spot w uva but i’m just gonna root for you
good luck
I hear you on the UVA QB situation…Rocco, IMO is clearly better than Sims yet they split snaps all game long. I have only watched a few UVA games this season so maybe I’m missing something. What really blew me away is how slow Sims is when he gets outside the pocket…
although if i do take a side it might be the other side of your clemson play…love me some 3 score dogs…!!
put my $$ where my mouth is…
2* nc st +17.5
RUBBING IT IN MY FACE!. Actually thinking of doing the same thing and coming over the top with NCSU. With my Clem -17 bet it gives me some hedge room if they happen just to win by 17. It’s a good situational with South Carolina on deck for Clemson, and State should definitely be able to throw it. Grabbed it early as I expected it to go up, Clemson has been a Brink’s truck ATS and I knew they’d attract money. Really no point in waiting for this one to move, its nothing but dead numbers all the way up to 20 imo..
looks like it’s already on the move…down to 17 at most shops and even a 16.5 out there
managed to snag a 17.5 at topbet, essentially wound up with 2 unit play on NCS. Do you have a linetracking website your recommend? I use the page at therx that is decent but doesn’t cover all of my outs
Vegasinsider
I also use Pregame.com. If you click on Odds at the top, you can then click individually on each game and it shows you where the line has moved. It also updates and has colors for lines that have moved recently, etc. I pretty much have it on one of my screens all day at work haha
Love NCS this week.
if it gets to 14 i will be on the other side of your GT play
Duke holds division title in their hands…play gt every year and had 2 weeks to prepare…In 8 games vs FBS teams (throw out Maryland who started 5th string qb) GT has given up >35 pts 5 times…BYU #93 offense put up 411yds and 41 pts…vs FBS they are #102 vs pass
Duke’s def is terrible no doubt…but in a matchup of really bad defenses i don’t mind being on the side getting 2 tds as opposed to being on the side laying 2 tds…
good luck
btw-ncst is down to 16.5 and is now being called a “wiseguy” play…
hahaha
I feel your angle here Trent, GT defense has allowed 40+ in 5 of the last 7. This # saw some time at 14 at a few shops yesterday but looks like a solid 13′ OTB. I just feel like GT can keep moving the ball here and just really wear Duke down. PJ’s teams have a habit of running away from teams they consistently beat at the point of attack and I just really don’t see how Duke matches up, week off or not (a lot of good that week did UNC)
See the State line vacillating a bit between 16.5 and 17 here. Books setting themselves up for a nightmare situation if this game somehow lands on 17.
Really like your Utah St play. I used this matchup as my featured game of the week. Don’t forget that Utah State is coming off a bye, which should help immensely at defending that high-powered LA Tech offense.
To speak to your point of LA Tech not playing anybody (besides Tex A&M), I have LA Tech’s strength of schedule at #105 in the nation, Utah State at #54.
LT is just a really overvalued side for me, these teams with poor smaller conference defenses always seem to have issues once they play the more complete teams who can get a few stops against them. Hoping the line next week is San Jose St -7 or less, and I’ll be all over that one as well.
OL — just curious how you get to your strength of schedule calculation? I’ve been toying with one ( I just use various sites now) but I can’t seem to figure out one I feel really shows the true value.
Right now I primarily use TeamRankings.com’s Strength of Schedule Power rankings. I usually cross-check that with multiple other sites/rankings to look for an outliers or disparities.
fwiw, For my power rankings I like to take the team rankings.com SOS numbers and mulitply them by 0.5. Anything more and I got a ton of Big XII teams in my top 12, anything less and Utah State and San Jose St are top 10 teams haha.
For anyone reading this who likes to use multiple books and wants to track the lines, I have to recommend the pregame.com one Max suggested (https://pregame.com/lines_odds/default.aspx?sport=ncaafb&period=0) and therx.com one (https://www.therx.com/college-football-odds) since both update in real time. The vegasinsider one Trent suggested looks solid (I like that it has topbet) but I diddn’t notice it updating without refreshing. If I’m wrong on that I apologize.
I keep both of the first two I mentioned open on my computer all day!