TSE Week 10 Guest Handicapper Challenge
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MAXIMIZE YOUR EDGE
I guess I’ll start us off this week:
Vandy -7
This play is as much fading a beaten down kentucky team as taking the obviously more complete vandy team. Comparing similar opponents alone isn’t a good capping practice, but if Mizzou was good for -23, surely vandy is good for -7, right?
Kansas State -9.5
I picked Kstate a few weeks ago and said they were for real. They let me down by 1 point. Boy has it been a different story for these guys the last couple weeks with huge back to back wins. Back at home, facing a very decent oklahoma state team. To be honest, these two are very similar by the numbers, with OKST having a slight edge in offensive production. Counting on the positive momentum they’re carrying on the way to a possible title shot here, home field advantage, and better defense to take this one.
Northern Illinois -35
Who isn’t putting up 40+ on UMASS? With this game being at NIU, they’re not going to mind running it up as much either. NIU has a top 30 offense and defense, UMASS has the worst offense and bottom 10 defense giving up 40+ per game. This one should be a no-brainer.
Fresno State -34.5
Here we have a defense actually performing worse than UMASS. Unlike UMASS, Hawaii can score, but they still have a pretty anemic offense. Fresno should keep them below 17 and should take this one by 45 easy.
Oregon -9
Both teams are going to be going all out in this one. But I don’t think there’s much doubt that Oregon is the better team here. Huge coaching advantage with Kelly too. Oregon needs to win this one decisively to stay in the title game conversation, so they have motivation to run this one up against a team with as much name recognition as USC. That recognition and home field is the only reason this line isn’t 17, against an Oregon team that’s winning every game by 20+ (typically much more). Betting on a blowout.
55-24
This Week,
Kansas State -9
Public is all over K State (85%) but I love this game so I bet it early in the week at -9. National TV, Bill Snyder, great defense, special teams and Colin Klein. Oklahome State has had two road games out of their first seven (who makes these schedules?) and lost to ASU by 21 and barely beat Kansas by 4. There will be over 75 points scored in this game and K State wins by 21. 58-37
OL Miss +14
Florida had a zillion turnovers and still almost tied the game at the end. Mark Richt looks GQ on TV but is not a great coach by any stretch. Freeze has the rebel players fighting for a bowl bid and this game will be a field goal either way.
27-24 Ol Miss
Miss St +7
Sure A & M beat Auburn by 41 but but traditionally I have always loved the Bulldogs as home dogs. They drove the field twice in the first half against Alabama but couldn’t convert, they convert a few this week.
34-30 Miss St
Alabama -9 1/2
LSU will not score an offensive touchdown in this game, Alabama might not either. LSU QB Mettenberger will wish he had gone to Auburn like he originally wanted.
Bama. 18-3
Oregon -8
Ducks defense most underrated in country, they haven’t been on the field that much. USC one more loss from Poulon seedeater bowl. Lane Kiffin is totally outclassed by Ducks HC Skip Kelly I believe.
55-31 Ducks. (Tiebreaker)
15-3 Bama
Sorry computer acting up and it’s early,
Duke +13
Clemson will score 35+, but Duke will get their points against an average Clemson defense.
Colorado State +8
Semi-rivalry game. CSU starting to play better and Wyoming not good enough to be laying more than a TD in the MWC.
Kansas +18.5
Good running team against the worst defense in the country. Charlie should keep it close.
UCLA -3.5
Bad spot for Arizona. Worst defense in the conference on the road against an explosive Bruin offense. 45-31 UCLA (Tie-breaker)
SDSU +14
Fresno State was getting +7 in this situation and SDSU is a similar caliber team.
Storm recovery here in NYC is occupying most of my time, but I’ll throw my quick takes out here and hope for the best.
Game of the week: Pitt +17 Final Score 23-13 ND wins
Notre Dame finally had a big win last week and now they hit the walk-through phase of their schedule until they go to LA. Pitt’s D is solid and 17 is a lot of points.
Ole Miss +14
Cocktail party hangover + pesky team fighting for a bowl = cover for the DD dog
Temple +16.5
Louisville hasn’t beat anyone by more than 10 pts since week 2 and that includes games against a winless USM & 1 win FIU. Fade Louisville as DD chalk
Penn State -3.5
Purdue can’t figure out who their QB is. Penn St coming off a tough loss. I trust O’brien to get this teams head straight again this week.
ULM -10
I’ve watch ULL play the last couple weeks and they don’t look good. Every other play is either a bomb and a WR screen. On D, they can’t stop the run at all. I’ve been on ULM all season, but this one is more of a ULL fade than a strong play for ULM.
Good luck this week! Hope all the east coasters on here are doing well.
Penn State -3.5
Purdue is a really bad football team.
Kentucky +7
Vanderbilt’s offense is not good enough to cover a TD on the road.
Stanford -28
Their offense is terrible, but everyone’s offense plays well against Colorado. Colorado scores 10 points tops in this game.
Missouri/Florida under 42
Missouri will be lucky to score, Florida offense again exposed last week for how bad it really is.
Tennessee -18.5
The Vols finally play a team they can beat up on. I doubt they show Troy any mercy. Tennessee 56-21 (tie breaker)
Vanderbilt -7
Kentucky’s entire team is awful, there is no home field advantage here, they can barely get 26,000 to come out. Vandy is still fighting for a bowl bid.
Texas Tech -6.5
Texas may have more playmakers on defense, but Tech’s defense is better overall and i dont think Texas will be able to keep up with Tech’s high powered offense at home.
Pittsburgh +17
Perfect let down spot for the overrated Irish, like most i think ND will win, but not cover. Pittsburgh is a physical team to not put up a fight after most people are counting them out of this game already.
Cincinnati -5
I look for Cincinnati to bounce back after 2 tough losses, especially the one against Louisville last week @ home. Syracuse doesnt have enough defense to stop the bearcats on offense.
Alabama -8.5
It will be a tight game early on, but Bama will pull away late to cover this spread. LSU has plenty of value here, but dont see LSU getting many first downs in this game.
Tie Breaker: Texas Tech-Texas 51-38
My brief picks are:
1. Indiana -1.5 vs. Iowa
2. LSU +9.5 vs. Alabama – Final Score 16-10 LSU 😮
3. Tulsa +9
4. East Carolina +3.5
5. Mississippi State +7- Im going to regret betting against Johnny “MF” Football
Why did I bet against Johnny Football?
I hear you Seth. His names Johnny Football for crying out loud. UGH!
Missouri/Florida Under 42 (Tie Breaker UF 23 Missouri 10)
Alabama/LSU Under 40
Pitt +17
San Jose State -21
Oklahoma State +10
MoMoney goes 5-0 again and repeats as Guest Handicapper winner for the 3rd time in 4 weeks. He is now 18-2 last 4 weeks. WOW! You are killing it brother.
Snow also goes 5-0 this week.
Great job guys and thanks for sharing all the winners.
I really didn’t think that USC would score as much as they did. I did think Kiffin would try that lame backdoor 2 point conversion. Crazy good game.
Catch y’all next week.
I just hope that some people have jumped on the train while it has been hot. October was a great month and November is starting off the same. No idea of know how long the ride will last, but I have no plans of getting off.
I am curious if anyone reading takes any of the advice from the “guest handicappers” though. Most of the people who have been participating in this have been really good and I was just wondering if people are using any of the picks.
Nice work with your picks too Pez, great week. Keep it rolling!
I grabbed Ark St and SJSU as part of a 4 pick parlay I was looking to fill out. Worked out nicely. Thanks. I’ll definitely come back to the well next week.
Pez,
Although since I had K State parlayed with many teams I had a good Saturday, that moronic try for 2 by Kiffin at the end cost me because I had Oregon -10. Kiffin is the worst coach with the best pure talent I have ever seen. Also, after Klein got hurt for K State in the 3rd quarter I was sweating it at the end.
BOL
Winston
Oregon covered 10…
But same here. Had a real nice ticket come in that might. Kstate interception at the end was clutch.
Winston,
I just read an article about how bad a coach Kiffin is. All the PAC 12 coaches are surprised at how bad USC is w/ all the talent they have available.
Good luck this week. You’ll get your mojo back,
Pez