jimmyshivers Week 5 ACC Football Picks
6 thoughts on “jimmyshivers Week 5 ACC Football Picks”
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MAXIMIZE YOUR EDGE
Jimmy,
Agree totally here about the VT defense. They should show that they are much better than the UC OL and should be able to stop the UC run.
There are a few things I am worried about. The last time Cincy had a week off to prepare for their opponent (Pitt) they came out and went straight at the jugular. They attacked on both run and pass and kept the Pitt D totally off-balance. The extra week here may (or may not) have given them the chance to really prepare for VT.
The other thing that really worries me is how underrated UC’s defense actually is. Right now they rank 5th in sacks and 8th in TFL. Yeah, they have played no one good, but if you look at last year, they ranked 2 in sacks and 1 in TFL. The year before that, when they went 4-8, they ranked 38 in both and 2009 they were 10th and 3rd, respectively. Somehow and somewhere, this D Coordinator is doing the right thing. On this D, they have 9 senior starters, that have seen and practiced with all of these previous defense. Now, VT will be the best OL they have seen this year. Logan is already not a good passing QB in my opinion, and if Cincy is disrupting them in the backfield while they don’t have much of a run game, that could really sway the outcome here. I also know some of VT WR are still banged up.
With that all being said, still think that VTs defense may be able to completely shutdown the UC O.
Do you see value playing it above this number or is under a TD the cutoff for you?
Great comments there SabertStxVii, and I get where your coming from in regards to that UC defense. Perhaps I’m being a bit simplistic but I’m not all that concerned with what happened in the Pitt game. Pitt seemed to be having acclimation issues with another new coaching staff and started out really flat, I felt like they were still in shock over the YSU game 5 days before. As I’m sure you remember since we both had Pitt, the Panthers moved the ball pretty decently (423 yards) once they settled down but just made a ton of mental and execution mistakes.
Beamer has raved about the athletes Cincy has all over the field and as you astutely pointed out, they bring a lot of pressure and try to overwhelm teams with numbers at the LOS. Obviously, with VT’s struggles passing the ball I would expect more of the same here, but I think the OL is showing signs of progressing and shouldn’t get dominated.
With Logan, his struggles this year aren’t at all surprising when you consider all they lost from last year. He was a 60% passer in ’11 when the spotlight was off him, and now that he has fewer weapons he’s trying to make more plays into tighter windows and he’s struggled. Hopefully the Hokies keep the ball on the ground and try to occasionally catch Cincy overcommitting at the LOS and look to hit the occasional big play in the passing game.
While Cincy has an edge over VT when the Hokies have the ball, I feel VT has a LARGE edge when Cincy has the ball. If Cincy can’t move the football and keep their defense off the field, I feel like in time the Hokies can wear down that Cincy defense and really test their depth. I know it was only Bowling Green but VT showed me something in running the football last week.
In what figures to be a low scoring game points where points are at a premium, I wouldn’t play it at more than 7. I briefly considered laying -7 +101 but don’t have enough confidence in this offense to warrant that.
Completely agree on the VT game, although I think this line was right around 7 preseason, so I don’t think there is a whole lot of value. I wa hoping for much more given the public perception of the Cincy/Pitt VT/Pitt outcomes respectively.
I do think the under is in order. Cincy will struggle to move the ball against a good VT defense and VT’s offense has struggled against defenses with anything more than a pulse. I think the analysis onVT’s offense up top is spot on, and I like the point that they might be in mid-season form playing their 5th game, as opposed to Cincy in week 3.
A few things to consider:
-VT is notorious for starting slow and flat, and Saturday should be no exception.
-this is a virtual home game for the hokies. I estimate a crown of about 65k with 90% VT.
-this had the potential for a sleepwalk/lookahead game for VT, but with the loss to Pitt, I no longer see that as the case. Had VT won in Pittsburgh, I would not hesitate to take Cincy here.
I don’t think I’ll play this game bc I don’t see enough value but I do like the under. This should be an ugly game with a 17-13ish outcome, at least from what I see.
Tim,
Thank you for commenting. I can understand your hesitation in playing VT here, they have exhibited a terrible profile for a favorite this year in that the offense has really struggled and they haven’t shown the ability to pull away from teams here. I do agree that this VT team is unlikely to look beyond Cincy, the Pitt game was such an abomination that they should still be keying on that performance and I expect it’s a powerful motivator for that defense. Lookout for new WHIP linebacker Ronnie Van Dyke, he is going to be a stud and a household name in this league before too long.
On injury front, RB Tony Gregory is not making the trip for VT. He’s their most experienced back but hasn’t really played a ton overall as he has had 3 ACL injuries and his knee is sore this week. The plodding Michael Holmes will once again get the start.
Loved nc st at +3.5…then it went under 3…i’ll pass and root for the outright win…just hope they’re not looking ahead to fsu
good luck