Pezgordo’s Week # 5 College football Picks
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9 thoughts on “Pezgordo’s Week # 5 College football Picks”
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MAXIMIZE YOUR EDGE
Bol as Always. I wonder which will go O for this week?..
That 26-5 will most likely be the Best ever..?
Thanks Doug. As long as whoever goes 0 fer comes back the next week like GS, we’ll be fine.
That 26-5 has definitely set the bar pretty high and will be something to shoot for.
BOL to you too and thanks for all your support.
I will say one thing for you, you are one Brave Under player. With Everything in favor of the offense, not to mention OT rules i stoped playing unders a few years ago. BOL to ALL.
Last three years unders have hit at nearly 52%. So statistically it’s easier to hit an under than an over. Public prefers betting overs, so lines are inflated.
i thought earlier you liked west vir and under utep?
Tom, I did jump on West Virginia -11.5 when the line came out Sunday. I subsequently got off that game on Tuesday. Here is a write-up I did for the CFBMatrix as to why I got off the Mountaineers:
https://cfbmatrix.com/last-one-out-5/
I was never on the Utep total, though I do have a lean towards Utep +4.5 this week. However I have not yet capped the game in detail.
What’s your read on SMU? At first glance, I see a team with a great D, playing against a team that’s given up more than 45 points twice. TCU’s offense isn’t great, but only giving up -16 to SMU? Plus their coach plays for the spread!
Riley, first off 17.5 was too many points. It’s now currently sitting at 15/15.5, so I’ve gained some line value.
Second, road fav’s coming off straight up DD wins hit at about a 46% rate ATS. Third, teams that avg less than 28 ppg (I do not include and non-FBS competition in my numbers) cover at around a 46% rate ATS.
Lastly, and this one is probably a long shot, but last year SMU ran the ball pretty well and they do have a good RB in Zach Line, so there is the possibility of them being the running dog.
Thanks for the question. I hope my explanation helped and please feel free to ask me anything else.
Pez