Raise your hand if back in November, you envisioned a final Saturday of the regular season with: Kentucky missing the tournament, Michigan State on the bubble, Arizona and Indiana missing the tournament, and Duke vs. North Carolina’s season finale being a potential “loser misses the Big Dance”

Lower you hand if you are lying.

What a bizarre, strange, yet really fun season of college hoops.  And today we hit the accelerator, as the final mad dash to One Shining Moment kick in earnest this afternoon with a monster slate of enormous matchups.

We’ve been able to cobble out a lot more winners than losers with the free picks this season, so let’s see if we can launch into the postseason on another heater!

TODAY’S FREE PICKS:

Oklahoma State Cowboys at West Virginia Mountaineers -7.5

What am I missing here?  Oklahoma State has been ripping through the Big XII lately, even with the most recent 11-point loss to Baylor.  They won the five games prior, including a season sweep of Oklahoma and over Texas Tech and, as long as the can keep the NCAA police at bay for two more weeks, look like a team that could play deep into March.

West Virginia has also been excellent, earning a near-top ten ranking and boasting a +4.6 MOV in conference play.  But they are only 8-8 ATS to Okie State’s 11-6, and the Cowboys boast a league-best +3.5ppg ATS to West Virginia’s mere +0.6.

Cade Cunningham hasn’t let the Pokes get routed often.  They have just three losses by more than ten points (average MOV of -12.3) and they are a pair to Baylor – likely the second-best team in the country, and a desperate Kansas squad.  West Virginia is just 4-4 straight up against ranked opponents and faces a hot one with a dynamic scorer this afternoon.

I’m not ready to go Oklahoma State on the robust money line.  I think WVU likely holds serve at home, but the points feel inflated.  I’d stay away from this game in the 4-5 range, but at 7.5, it’s enough cushion to bite.

MY PICK:  OKLAHOMA STATE +7.5

 

Illinois Illini at Ohio State Buckeyes -2

The best game of the day (though not the most important) is in Columbus this afternoon as a pair of teams with #1 seeds square up.  Illinois is riding high after the pummeling of #2 Michigan and enters winners of 10 of their last 11 games.  Meanwhile, Ohio State had been compiling an impressive resume as well until the terrible, rotten, no-good last week.  They’ve dropped three in a row; to Michigan in a thriller, at Michigan State and home to Iowa.  None of those losses are BAD, as is typically the wont in Big Ten play, but a three-game slide does not a #1 seed make.  Today is a VITAL last stand for the Bucks.

I think they’ll get it.  No metrics or stats to back this one up, just simple psychology at play today.  Ohio will be HUNGRY and at HOME, which is a dangerous combo for a top-ten caliber team.  Even with the skid, their conference numbers are comparable to Illinois, both are over 61% ATS (Illinois is a blissful 67%) and have respective ATS MOVs of +3.3 and +4.1 respectively.

This should be a good game, but I think Ohio State has enough drive and focus to get a desperately needed win today.  If the numbers and metrics and momentum scare you, I understand staying off this play.  It’s a pure gut feel, but one I am trusting personally.

MY PICK:  OHIO STATE -2

 

Duke Blue Devils at North Carolina Tarheels -2.5

Here we are.  Last day of the regular season, and if North Carolina wins at home, as they are favored to do, Duke finishes the season at 11-11, 9-9 in ACC play and almost certain the NIT (which they’ll HAVE to decline, right??  After all of Coach K’s ‘we shouldn’t be playing this season’ stuff??)

It’s a weird, weird, season, folks.

And it isn’t like Carolina is much better.  In fact, the Tarheels saving grace was the fact that Covid didn’t claim a bunch of their preseason cupcake buffets.  They snatched up wins over three mid/low majors, plus Kentucky, while Duke had four guaranteed wins Covid-cancelled.  Add those four W’s to Duke’s tally, and today’s game is between two teams with equal ACC records and both are sitting on 15 wins.

Just some perspective.

And Duke has also lost some brutally tough close games.  They have four losses by four or less points or less and no losses by double digits.  They are both near the bottom of the ACC in ATS%, which makes a TON of sense given the reputation vs. performance for each team.

I also won’t DARE say that Duke is better without Jalen Johnson, too many people have gotten fired, suspended or cancelled for that take.  BUT, in those like Dakich’s defense, Duke WAS on a 4-0 run when they said it.  They’ve since lost close to Georgia Tech and Louisville in their last two outings, that take seems a little more muted.

Carolina is at home.  Carolina has the impressive wins over Florida State and Louisville on their resume.  But they also have a bunch of double digit losses lately; UVA, Marquette, Clemson.  It’s a very uneven team.  It’s a team that has wilted in more than a few top-tier matchups. Duke is steadier AND more desperate.  These two almost always play close (14-14 in their last 28 games, total point separation of just 4 points), so I’ll take the 2.5  and the Devils. (Please shop around for lines, I’ve seen +3 on at least one book, but am writing this article at UNC -2.5 as it is the more commonly available line).

Call me sentimentally foolish, but I can’t envision this NCAA Tournament without Duke.  A win today, and I likely won’t have to…

MY PICK:  DUKE +2.5