We had a nice Saturday last week, grabbing a pair of winners, including an outright win with underdog VA Tech doing a number on visiting rival Virginia.  Let’s see if we can keep the momentum going this week with another unblemished afternoon…

Here’s a sentence college basketball writers don’t get to write often: “Duke and North Carolina square off this evening, both desperate for a win to play themselves back into NCAA Tournament contention.”  As if 2020/2021 couldn’t get any more surreal (I’ll lean Duke to cover, but not an ‘official’ play today)… And it isn’t just these two Blue Bloods struggling.  Kentucky is almost assuredly (barring an SEC Tourney miracle) going to miss the entire postseason, NIT, etc. – something that generally only happens when the Wildcats are on probation.  Michigan State is just OK, Syracuse is meh, and even Louisville and Kansas are far from impressive.  Add in Arizona, and even second-tier traditionally-strong programs like usual tourney qualifiers Butler and Cincinnati and Indiana, and we could be looking at a very odd NCAA Bracket in just 6 weeks (but really, isn’t ‘odd’ what the world would seem to require these days…)

Let’s try to make some money.

Today’s Free Picks:

Kansas Jayhawks at West Virginia Mountaineers -2.5

West Virginia loves some close games.  In their last seven games (4-3 SU) all but one has been settled by two or less possessions (the exception being a blow-out win over hapless K-State).  They own a close impressive win over Texas Tech and narrow losses to Texas, Oklahoma and Florida.

Meanwhile, Kansas is mired in their worst stretch since Bill Self came to town, losers of four of their last six with the only two wins coming over TCU and K-State, who are a combined 4-14 SU in Big Twelve play.  And a few of the losses have been alarming; a loss to Oklahoma State, a loss by 25 to Texas and by 19 to Tennessee – even the losses to Oklahoma and Baylor were by seven or more points.

Yes, the handled West Virginia surprisingly easy when they met in Lawrence just before Christmas, but 2021 has been rough on KU.  This is a tough game, on the road, against an equal or better opponent.  Laying just 2.5 to get the better team at home seems cheap.

I’ll pile on the Jayhawks demise today and take the ‘Eers at home.

MY PICK: WEST VIRGINIA -2.5

 

Northwestern Wildcats at Purdue Boilermakers -7

Remember when Northwestern was 3-0 in conference play with staggering wins over Michigan State, Ohio State and Indiana??  Yeah… those days are gone.  The Cats have dropped eight straight since, by an average of close to nearly 15 points per contest.  They’ve only been competitive in two of those games, and they face a solid Purdue squad whose won five of seven and will come in focused after a bitter 61-60 loss to Maryland in their last game.  This thing had blowout written ALL over it.

Purdue stumbled out of the gate a bit with losses to Clemson and Miami and an unimpressive league debut against preseason favorite Iowa that indicated it might be a rebuilding year for the baby Boilers.  It’s turned out to be anything but.  They are above .500 in the deepest, toughest league in America, and are poised to all but lock up an NCAA berth if they can handle their business today at home.  (8-5 in league play with 5 to play, and one against Nebraska, should be 9-9 at WORST in the Big Ten = punched dance card).

Purdue has won by eight or more in five of their eight wins over Power Six conference opponents.  I like them to continue that trend of adding some cushion to the winning margin today against an absolutely reeling Northwestern squad in freefall.

MY PICK:  PURDUE -7

 

Tennessee Volunteers -4 at Kentucky Wildcats

This line feels fishy.  Tennessee is ranked 11^th in the country, and Kentucky has that many losses (5-11).  So… a four point line?  Why??  Is it fear of the name on the front of the jersey??  This one merits closer examination.  One of my core tenets of sports handicapping; when the line seems off, dig deeper and deeper.

Here’s where things get a little interesting… these two teams are separated by just one game in the SEC standings at 5-4 and 4-5.  Tennessee enters today losers of three of their last five games and it ain’t like they played Baylor and Gonzaga.  They’ve been pretty pedestrian on the road, and the recent losses have been a little ugly.  They got dump-trucked by Florida (who is hitting their stride and a favorite sleeper team, yet I digress) 75-49, lost handily to Missouri, and the most-recent showing was a 52-50 stinkpot at Ole Miss (yuck!).  So, expect that #11 ranking to plummet, and perhaps it was a teensy bit of a mirage in the first place.

Meanwhile, it is fun to pile on Kentucky.  Like, oh so deliciously fun to laugh at Coach Cal’s demise (speaking from a general public standpoint – I’ve no ill-will, and I imagine there are roughly 4 million die-hard Big Blue who would disagree…).  But, are they really that AWFUL?  Vegas doesn’t seem to think so, and I haven’t seen many sportsbooks go out of business.  That makes this line scare me.  On the surface?  Tenness minus eight or nine.  But it’s just four… so, is there something I’m missing.

Honestly.  No. Here’s my verdict.  Tennessee is going to kick their ass.  I totally get if you want to sit this one out, because, YES, Kentucky has enough talent and pedigree that at any moment it is POSSIBLE the switch flips, they win by 15, and you feel stupid for doubting the inevitable Kentucky rise from the ashes.  But the last three weeks tell a different story.  Kentucky is done.  I’m talking ‘see ya in 2021-2022, D-U-N.’  They’ve lost five of their last six games, many not even close, including losses to Georgia and Auburn (combined 8-12 in SEC play).

I’m not letting the mystique fool me, and I’m not afraid of a cavernous nearly-empty Rupp Arena.  The Vols get back on track today and their hated rival’s expense.  Give me Tennessee eating the four.

MY PICK:  TENNESSEE -4