Super Bowl 54 Props
For the second consecutive season, I have no strong opinion taking either side of the spread. My calculations are calling for Kansas City -1.47, which is pretty much dead on the actual spread. On the surface, San Francisco is no question the more balanced team, but Pat Mahomes is quarterbacking on another level right now. There really isn’t a score that would surprise me in this matchup. Initially, I was leaning more towards the over, but I think it has gotten a little too high and I have yet to hear anyone claim to like the under which always feels dangerous…. I think it’ll be a highly competitive, entertaining game but it just feels to close to call.
However, I will certainly play a wide variety of props!!!
Shorestein Says Take these Prop Bets!
Analyzing Super Bowl Prop Bets has quickly become one of my favorite exercises of the NFL Season. For two consecutive seasons, I have had great success in these situations and am looking to carry forward the momentum to another year.
**Please note that depending on your sportsbook, the numbers can vary significantly. For the most part, I pulled these numbers from the initial postings published by Westgate**
George Kittle Longest Catch over 27 Yards (-115): I respect the Hell out of Steve Spagnolo (defensive coordinator of the Chiefs). He put together one of the best defensive game plans in Super Bowl history when his 2007 Giants defense shocked the world and topped the undefeated Patriots. This season, I’ve noticed that he is playing an extremely aggressive scheme that stacks the line of scrimmage and blitzes very often. I think in this game, the Chiefs will sell out to stop the run. You’ll most likely see a ton of crowded boxes, and they will dare Jimmy Garoppolo to beat them. There’s no chance the Kansas City defense just sits back and gets gashed like Green Bay did. They will certainly force him to throw the ball more than 8 times!
With all this said, I think you’ll see a lot of situations where Kittle is left in single coverage. He has shown all season that he is almost impossible to tackle alone, and with all the Kansas City resources dedicated close to the line of scrimmage, there could be some huge chunks of yardage picked up after missed tackles. Kyle Shanahan is one of the best play designers in the league, and I think the play action will be far more active with plenty of opportunities to hit Kittle for big yardage.
George Kittle over 70.5 yards (-115): I like this play for the same reasons as above. However, I’d prefer the single catch option if you are only choosing to play 1. I’d prefer to have the quick 1 play scenario as opposed to having to rely on multiple catches that could take all game.
Mostert under 80.5 Rushing Yards(-115): Staying consistent with what I outlined above, I feel that the Chiefs defense will throw everything they have at the run game. Mostert ran wild against the Packers, but he hasn’t necessarily been the lead back all season. It would not shock me at all to see Tevin Coleman take carries away assuming he’s ready to go. Shanahan has shown that he is not afraid to play the hot hand when it comes to his running backs, and if Mostert gets bottled up early, expect to see someone else. For these reasons, I think the under is a solid play here. I think you’ll see more throwing from Garoppolo that we haven’t seen in quite awhile.
Tyrann Mathieu Over 5.5 Tackles (-110): The “Honey Badger” is a big-time playmaker. In his first Super Bowl I’d be stunned if I didn’t see him everywhere. Also, with the 49ers’ weapons, I think you’ll see a lot of situations to make tackles in the second level. Deebo Samuel and Kittle have been a nightmare for opposing teams to tackle, and I have to assume Mathieu will be needed to finish off these plays. The 5.5 is a pretty low number for him as well as he has surpassed it in 4 of the last 6 games.
Will the 49ers Convert a 4th Down? Yes: This is a power running team with an aggressive coach. Last I saw, this was at + Money. I think you have to also consider that this could be a factor if they are trailing late. I like the value here.
Tyreek Hill Under 5.5 Receptions -120: 5.5 feels like a high number to me. Hill only needs 2 or 3 catches to completely alter the outcome of the game so he is by no means a volume receiver. I think taking him away as the first option is where the 49ers will start their defense. Hill has failed to break 5 receptions in 5 straight games, I like the under as he should see a lot of double teams.
Sammy Watkins over 47.5 yards -110: Again, I am assuming the above holds true for Tyreek Hill. I like this play as a counter to what the 49ers will look to take away. Watkins/Mahomes can easily break 40 yards in 1 throw, so I think it is realistic to hit this number on 2 or 3 catches. You’d have to think Kelce and Hill are the priorities of the defense. I’d look to take the over on Sammy or maybe even Mecole Hardman. Watkins is a dynamic talent and you probably won’t see a more capable 3rd option in the entire league. He’s also had a history of playing well in big games (114 Yards last week vs the Titans & 114 Yards in the 2018 AFC Championship). Mahomes clearly feels comfortable throwing to him in critical spots.
49ers Under 2.5 Defensive Sacks: Mahomes is one of the least sacked quarterbacks in the league, and his offensive line has been phenomenal in pass protection in their recent run. I think the 49ers focus has to be to remain disciplined in pass rushing lanes because Mahomes has scorched defenses with his ability to escape the pocket and throw missiles down the field. I think the 49ers most likely take this conservative approach in an attempt to keep him contained, but will likely sacrifice the sack totals. Mahomes has attempted 128 passes since week 16 and has only been sacked 3 times in that time frame. I think the winner of the matchup between the 49ers defensive line/Chiefs offensive line will decide who wins the game.
Mahomes Over 2 TD Passes (-200): You’ll have to lay significant juice here, so you’d might be better off playing over 2.5 TD’s with a significant +money return… I think he’s in the zone right now and you’d better believe Andy Reid will have the ball in his hands early and often. This play should still have value even if they are trailing late. As we all know, he has shown the ability to throw 4 TD’s in a quarter.
**Bonus Play**: I saw the Prop available “Will Mahomes throw 2 or more TD’s in a Quarter?” at +400. At a 4/1 payout, I think it’s worth a shot. I think the opportunity to quickly score twice could present itself given Jimmy Garoppolo’s propensity to turn the ball over. Mahomes has accomplished this feat 5 times this season (Vs. Baltimore, Oakland, Jacksonville and twice vs the Texans). Albeit it was against much worse defenses, but I think it’s a fun play nonetheless. When he’s hot, the touchdowns come fast!
Darwin Thompson over 4.5 Yards: Now this is what you call a Super Bowl Prop bet! He played all of 1 snap vs. the Titans, but against the 49ers, you’d have to think more rushing attempts will be in the cards to keep those aggressive pass rushers honest. Surprisingly, he’s exceeded 4.5 yards in 6 out of 7 games, and he’s done it in every game that he actually had a carry!
Last But Not Least, Some Unnecessary Long Shots just because it’s the Super Bowl…..
Will Kyle Juszczyk have 1 carry? Yes (+300): Look… this guy’s a good fullback so he’s on the field a lot… in fact, he typically plays about half of the offensive snaps. He’s got 3 carries on the year, so wouldn’t it be a Kyle Shanahan-type move to give him the ball because no one is expecting it? This has to be worth throwing a few bucks at….
Will a Kicker Miss an Extra Point? Yes (Both Kickers at +600): Of course one of these bums will miss an extra point. My official stance on kickers is “If you aren’t Justin Tucker, you suck.” And even he kinda sucks now too….
Good Luck Everyone! Enjoy the Game!