NY Jets +15 @ Baltimore: If there is one thing that the Jets have proven they can do, it’s stop the run.  At just 3.0 yards per carry, the Jets are by far the best team against the run.  Baltimore’s entire offense is built around a complex running attack that revolves around the read-option with probably the best running quarterback that we’ve ever seen.  However, this week, Lamar Jackson is playing on a shortened week and has an injured thigh.  I believe that the Ravens will be careful with how they use him and limit his rushing attempts.  This feels like it could be a conservative offensive game plan for Baltimore, and the Jets have proven that they can shut down a more conventional-style run game.  They are certainly vulnerable against the pass, but they should have enough on offense to keep this game close enough for the cover.  4 out of the last 5 games, the Jets offense has been explosive.

I’m hoping that the dud in Cincinnati is was just an outlier….

Generally speaking, the last month of the regular season is the best time to fade the elite teams against the spread.  Vegas tends to inflate the spreads of the best teams in the NFL, and that doesn’t stop the betting public from backing them.  Last year was a perfect example of this trend in the final four weeks of the regular season:

Baltimore will start to see some really inflated spreads as they are now the odds on favorite for the Super Bowl.

The last key to look at is the status of Jamal Adams.  He’s the best player that they have on defense, and would assume huge responsibility in watching Lamar Jackson.  He’s a game-time decision, but hopefully he will suit up.