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2019 Big Ten Picks – Week Twelve

That could have gone very poorly but I squeaked out a 2-1 weekend and improved to 22-12 on the season. I was lucky but I will take some good luck!

The slate is as follows:

Indiana at Penn State (-14), Wisconsin (-13) at Nebraska, Michigan State at Michigan (-13.5), UMass at Northwestern (-40), Ohio State (-52.5) at Rutgers, Minnesota at Iowa (-3)

Michigan State at Michigan (-13.5) – Noon on FOX

I have made some money fading the Spartans. Michigan State is just not very good. Their defense is really strong only in reputation as on field performance suggests nothing more than mediocrity. The offense is capable at times but inconsistent and they have struggled mightily against good defenses. They’ll face a good, although not great, unit in Michigan and I think the Wolverines will overwhelm them in Ann Arbor. I do not love Michigan’s offense but it has greatly improved and the deep wide receiver corps should be able to do some damage. Add in a steady running game going against a weakened front seven (without Joe Bachie) and I like Michigan to win this game big.

UMass at Northwestern (-40) – Noon on BTN

Hold your nose and do not watch this game. You read that correctly, we are taking Northwestern as 38 point favorites. The question is: can Northwestern score 40+ against air? If you answered yes, you should take the Wildcats as well. UMass has the nation’s worst defense and they have been shelled by everyone they’ve played except Akron. Rutgers beat them 48-21, Southern Illinois beat them 45-20, Coastal Carolina scored 62, Louisiana Tech scored 69, UConn had 56, Liberty had 63 and Army scored 63. You get the picture, this is a horror show. Northwestern does have something to build on after putting up 435 yards last week against Purdue. They should have won that contest, outgaining the Boilers by 90 yards, rushing for 251 yards winning the time of possession battle. However, Purdue was able to escape with a last second field goal and the win. I think Northwestern’s converted wide receiver to running back, Kyric McGowan, has a huge day and I expect the Wildcats to take out a lot of frustration on the Minutemen.

Ohio State (-52.5) at Rutgers – 3:30 on BTN

Ohio State is 8-1 against the spread (ATS). That is tied for the best mark for the country and they are beating the line by an average of 18.2 points per game. There is no great analysis here that tells you picking a 50.5 point favorite is the right thing to do. The only thing I can tell you is that Ohio State is beating teams with a ruthless and clinical nature that is impressive, and profitable if you have been paying attention. The Buckeyes are on a mission and Rutgers is playing for absolutely nothing as they wait on finding out who their next head coach will be. I understand a hesitancy to take the massive favorite but the numbers on what Ohio State has accomplished speak for themselves. Take the Buckeyes.

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