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“Shorestein Says” 2019 NFL Week 10 Pick

Seattle +6 @ San Francisco:  I really like Seattle as a significant underdog in this divisional matchup.  I’m not sure if there has ever been a situation in NFL history for a quarterback to be a 6 point underdog where he has posted a 118 passer rating this late into the year.

Wilson’s track record as an underdog is excellent.  The Seahawks are 13-7 (65%) ATS when they are underdogs since 2015.  I just think that when Wilson is on the field, the game is never over.  How many times has he led improbable comebacks on the prime time stage?….

Here are some of Wilson’s heroic underdog performances in the last couple of years:

The bottom line here is that when your quarterback posts a healthy QB rating into the triple digits, it’s almost impossible to get blown out.  Wilson is on that type of tear, as his TD/Int ratio is a ridiculous 22/1.

The 49ers defense has been one of the best units in the league so far in 2019.  In year’s past, I would be very concerned about Seattle’s protection against an elite defensive line.  However, it has been greatly improved this year, and they have continued an efficient running game to compliment that.

Historically, Wilson would be running for his life in a game like this, but it feels like they should have the ability to at least slow down the pass rush, and keep them slightly off balanced with their running game.  The Cardinals showed that the 49ers defense can be moved on last Thursday night.  Chris Carson should be able to run with similar effectiveness.

Defensively, Seattle has been up and down.  The 49ers average the most rushing attempts in the league this season.  While Seattle has struggled with its run defense, I’m confident they have the talent in the front seven to improve.  I think Seattle’s best bet is to dedicate resources to contain the run first, and force Garoppolo to win his second consecutive game by airing it out.  He has shown that he’s willing to throw a few balls up for grabs per game.  Seattle has taken the ball away at the 5th highest rate this year and could have some opportunities for INT’s.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see Jedeveon Clowney have a big game given all the media hype around the 49ers defensive line.

 

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