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“Shorestein Says” 2019 NFL Week 9 Pick

“The Money Zone”:  Games that have a “Calculated vs. Actual” difference of between 2 and 6 points are considered The Money Zone.  Since 2015, games that fall within this tier have hit ~55% on a sample of over 500 games.  I consider games in this tier to have a statistical advantage in the long run.  This is a completely objective calculation that does not account for injuries, roster changes, weather etc.  However, I believe the smartest investment is to make small bets on each one of these games and slowly increase them over time if you are successful. 

The Week 9 Money Zone Picks are Detroit, NY Jets, Green Bay, Pittsburgh, & Tennessee.

Washington @ Buffalo -9.5: It’s not typical of me to play Buffalo as a heavy favorite, but I think this is a no brainer if Dwayne Haskins is getting the start.  Even though last week I said I would save myself the trouble of watching the Thursday Night snooze-fest, I couldn’t help but watch.  The second Haskins marched out onto the field to start the 2nd half, I knew that any momentum built up by Washington in the first half was about to disappear.  And did it ever…. Haskins was completely inept, unready, and overwhelmed.  You could feel his “Peterman-esque” performance coming even on his first completed pass (I almost went “Darnold-esque”, but thought it was too soon).  Here is how he has fared in his first shot at NFL action:

Haskins has dropped back to pass 26 times in two games, and he has been sacked or intercepted on 30.76% of those plays…. I honestly didn’t think that was possible.  To make matters worse for the poor kid, the Buffalo pass defense has been excellent this year.  Only the vaunted Niners and historic Patriots have outperformed them so far and I’d say only the Bears have been more consistent over the past 2 seasons.  They are currently holding opponents to a passer rating of 73.70.  I’d expect an even better performance from Buffalo coming off their loss against Philly, a matchup that wasn’t suited for their playing style.

Washington has some talent in the front seven, but if Haskins makes a few mistakes early, I could see this unit getting frustrated and mailing it in.  The Redskins offense hasn’t scored a touchdown since October 13th, and that was against Miami…  I feel like it’s only a matter of time before the defense packs it in for the season.  As always, I’d look for Josh Allen to run for the Bills.  I’d also keep an eye on Devin Singletary out of the backfield.  He has been quiet this season, but he has made some explosive plays in his limited opportunities.  I’d still like the Bills at about -7 or lower if Keenum gets the start, so that is a situation that you want to keep an eye on throughout the week.

Indianapolis @ Pittsburgh (pk): The Steelers have quietly got their season back in line over the past 4 games.  They are 3-1 over the last 4 with their only loss being an overtime heartbreaker against the Ravens.  I loved the Steelers defense coming into the season and they have not disappointed.  TJ Watt has become the more dominant Watt, much to the chagrin of JJ.  He’s become the emotional leader of the defense and they have wreaked havoc on opposing offenses.

Indy has taken control offensively when they can dominate the line of scrimmage.  They’ve been able to man-handle weak defensive lines like Kansas City, but Pittsburgh’s strength is inside.  I have not seen Brissett be able to drop back and consistently pick apart a defense like I think he will have to in this game if the running game isn’t hitting at all cylinders.  When Indy has struggled to run the ball effectively, Brissett hasn’t played well, and the Colts have not covered:

The Steelers offense looks like it has gotten back some speed.  I think the emergence of Diontae Johnson has been a big factor for Mason Rudolph and the Pittsburgh offense.  Since putting up only 3 points in the opener against New England, the Steelers have scored over 20 points in all of their games.  I also liked how Rudolph responded to his shaky start last night.  He made two terrible plays to start the game, but he stayed with the downfield passing game and was able to make some huge plays to regain control.  I am not overly concerned with the status of James Connor.  The Colts have ranked near the bottom in yards allowed per rush (4.8 per carry).  The Steelers should be able to run behind Pouncey, Vilanueva, and DeCastro regardless of who the running back is.

I think the Steelers grind this one out at home and get back into the playoff picture in the AFC.

Green Bay -3.5 @ LA Chargers:  I am continuing my fade of the Chargers despite the slip-up in Chicago last week.  Green Bay is the better team and I think they have a great matchup.  Aaron Jones has been a game changer with his speed and receiving skills over the last month.  He’s propelling Rodgers up to the top in the MVP race.  Expect Rodgers to continue his hot streak against a defense that has really only been able to stop Mitch Trubisky, and honestly what does that even say at this point?  There should be open receivers all over the field on Sunday afternoon, and I am hoping that Devante Adams will be one of them assuming he’s back and healthy.  The Green Bay offense is noticeably better under the command of their young head coach vs. what it looked like under Mike McCarthy.

On the other side, I think Rivers hasn’t handled pressure well.  He’s thrown 7 interceptions, and the Chargers are turning the ball over about 1.6 times per game.  The tandem of Preston and ZeDarius Smith should be problematic as they have been for most quarterbacks this season.  Also, the Chargers passing game has been over reliant on Keenan Allen for production.  Jaire Alexander is the type of corner that should be able to handle him.  The Chargers are just 1-3 at home this year, and I think they will have their hands full with the Packers.

New England @ Baltimore +3.5: In what feels like the Patriots first true test of the season, I think the Ravens have value as FG+ home underdogs.  The Patriots have been a historical force to be reckoned with on defense.  I think the offense, however, has been pretty average.  They’ve benefited from great field position and touchdowns by this amazing defense.  I think this week the Ravens will play disciplined and not turn the ball over the way the dregs on the Patriots schedule have.

If there is one area where New England may be vulnerable it is on the ground.  The Patriots rank just 21st in terms of yards allowed per rush.  The power running game led by Mark Ingram could exploit that weakness for Baltimore.  With all that said, I expect John Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman to throw early against the Patriots.  Belichick will not be beaten by Lamar Jackson’s running, so I think the Ravens will try to get him throwing down the field early in the game.  Harbaugh has had this approach in almost all big games against New England and he has been one of the few coaches that can consistently give the Patriots competitive games.  The fact that Brady is only 2-2 against the Ravens in the playoffs should tell you something about the way Harbaugh can game plan.  It should also be helpful that the Ravens are coming off the bye.

The Ravens haven’t had a great pass rush so far this year, but they still have an excellent secondary.  Jimmy Smith, arguably their best corner could be returning this week.  This will be a hostile crowd Sunday night, and I am sure the defense will throw everything they have at the shaky offensive line of New England.  Brady didn’t look comfortable when he faced heavy pressure on the road in Buffalo, and I’d be shocked if Baltimore didn’t come out with a similar scheme.

Lastly, I think the kicking game could play a major role.  New England cut Mike Nugent today and who knows what their next kicker will look like on Sunday.  New England hasn’t shown any confidence in the kicking game outside of 35 yards.  If the Patriots are forced to go for it on 4th downs, this could put them at a huge disadvantage as a road favorite.  On the other side, the Ravens are lining up the best kicker in the history of the game.  I’ve always said that I love betting the Ravens as an underdog when it feels like you have an automatic 3 points once you’re over mid field.

Random Thoughts:

  • Had a few really tough losses last week. Both KC and Chicago looked like they were in great shape before things fell apart…. Ah!
  • I’m leaning Cleveland and Tampa in the games at the top of my spreadsheet. As I’ve said previously, when the formula is showing a significant variance, it’s hard for me to put a lot of stock in it.
  • Detroit feels like a solid underdog pick… The Raiders don’t feel like a deserving favorite yet. They’ve been effective as underdogs, but I just can’t trust that pass defense.  Stafford/Golladay connection has been awesome.
  • Minnesota/KC should see a lot of points. If Mahomes is making his return I’d probably expect one of the highest over/unders of the season.
  • San Francisco is legit. That defense is fierce.  Looking like there could be a potential rematch of that epic Niners/Saints divisional game back in the day, but this time it might be in the championship.
  • Jets/Miami… Fitzpatrick still looks like an NFL quarterback. Not sure you can say the same about Sammy D right now.  But if he’s able to turn it around against anyone, it should be Miami.
  • Tennessee has been very hit or miss all year. Not sure their protection can hold up against Carolina…. But the Panthers didn’t do me any favors last week by allowing 50….

 

Good Luck Everyone!

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