NBA 4/2/2019

OKC/LAL Under 224.5

Some could argue the over for this game as the Lakers have been very hot and cold in terms of scoring this season.  When I look at the key stats that actually have merit here I think the Under is the clear play.

I’ll break it down for you.  While capping this game I’m looking for games that are similar situationally as the one at hand.  Since the beginning of March most of LA’s playoffs hopes have diminished which naturally is still true now.  During that time when they have played non-playoff contending teams their offense has flourished possibly because both teams have nothing to lose and both are playing faster and looser.  In those 6 games they have averaged 123.3PPG!  During that same time frame in March the Lakers played 8 playoff teams while only scoring 101.6PPG and never eclipsing higher than 107 points during any games in that stretch. 

OKC clearly falls into the category of a playoff team and I expect the Lakers to score somewhere closer to that 101 range.  OKC has also been struggling offensively lately.  The most offense they have generated in the last 12 games is 116 points.  Once again, the Lakers haven’t scored more than 107 points vs a playoff caliber team in March.  If neither team breaks out a new high during these intervals the total can’t possibly go over the 224.5 benchmark.  That’s why I really like the Under in this game!  Good Luck!

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