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NBA 3/29/2019

OKC/Den Under 217

Did you know that Denver Nuggets are 2-15 on Totals in the last 17 games?  That is hard to believe as they are the two seed in the West, but their offense has been horrendous at times and particularly on the road and as of late.  Their last 3 games have been all against playoff teams and they have averaged merely 90.3 points per contest.  Today is no different, they have a very tough road opponent in OKC.  Definitely a game that has playoff implications for both teams.  It should be a hard fought grind it out type of game.

A few more stats for you is Denver is 13-24 on over/unders when not playing in the Mile High state.   They’ve had 4 straight unders on Away/Away B2B games.  No legs equal no knocking down jumpers.  Denver is averaging just 99.5ppg in their last 8 games against playoff teams where the intensity and pressure is higher.

OKC has also gone under in 9 of their last 12 games against playoff teams.  It’s getting to that point of the season where games really start to matter, and you get that extra effort on defense.  OKC also had the lowest 3PT% in the NBA since the All-star break as of last week which a big factor to why so many games are going under.  Paul George is a big part of that equation, since his shoulder injury his shooting percentage has been way down.  George is also listed as questionable today which will either mean he won’t be 100% and as effective shooting or miss the game entirely.  I don’t know how OKC can replace his offense and I think the total will suffer regardless.

Finally a lot of sharp money has also been coming in since last night that has dropped the total significantly.  But I still think we see a lot of value as the total should stay under 210 in my opinion.

Good luck!

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