It’s tournament time, so grab your brackets and clutch them tight tonight, because they’ll likely be busted by dinnertime tomorrow…

Sorry to be a killjoy.  I’m just not a “bracket” guy.  Probably because I like numbers and probabilities.  One in 4,300,000,000,000,000 odds of perfection are a little outside of my comfort zone (or any Vegas book’s payout capabilities.) But I do like value, and I like setting up potential hedge plays by locking in some good value Final Four wagers.  Are some of these longer shots likely to hit at the listed amount?  No.  But do we see a way off the radar Final Four team every two or three years?  Actually, slightly MORE often.

Since 2011, NINE teams seeded worse than a #6 have been standing heading into the final weekend of the tournament (An average of 1.125 per tourney).  Last year Loyola-Chicago was a national sensation, and a true Cinderella, but many other similar non-favorite seeds (bigger brand names) have crashed the party.  South Carolina (7) in 2017, Syracuse (10) in 2016, Michigan State (7) in 2015 (I know, Izzo’s never a true underdog….), UConn and Kentucky in the #7 vs. #8 worst title game of the decade, and VCU (11) and Butler (8) in 2011.

Here’s my favorite long value Final Four wagers for 2018-2019:

#1. NEVADA WOLFPACK 25/1 – Most of the above listed teams had something in common; PROS.  Not Loyola, and that 2016 Syracuse team was rather deplete, but the rest had a dude or two destined to soon earn a paycheck (a legal one, LSU!) to hoop.

Speaking of dudes, no team outside the Top Ten nationally has more future pros than the Wolfpack.  Even their COACH is an NBA guy.  A #7 seed is never an easy road to navigate, but keep in mind, once you knock off an elite seed early, you essentially “inherit” that seed.  If Nevada can clip Michigan (and oh my, they absolutely can), they become the de facto #2 seed the rest of the way in a bracket with all kinds of chaos potential (Syracuse’s zone against #1 and historically under-performing Gonzaga who hasn’t played a legit opponent in two months??  I sniff a second-round tripwire).

Texas Tech as a #3 has a tricky Buffalo potentially waiting (Buffalo is my other favorite value play in the West, but I’ll take the Pack since they are 25/1 versus 18/1).

Nevada has a nice draw in that they don’t have any of the ACC behemoths in their region, and a truly navigable path the glory.  I’ll let it ride at 25/1 to win the West, with the hope that Gonzaga DOES get through to keep the hedge value high.

#2.  Belmont Bruins 100/1 – I know.  Seems ridiculous.  But no more so than Loyola, VCU and even Butler who’ve accomplished a similar accomplishment within the last seven years.  Add in a VERY generous path; a winnable game against Maryland (I’ll take Belmont straight-up, regardless of the slim line) and a potential Round Two game against a scandal ridden and coach-less LSU squad.  With a few good bounces, Belmont could be entering the Sweet Sixteen sitting on an 100/1 ticket with infinite hedge potential.

For the record, I do NOT think Belmont can beat Duke.  Under any circumstances.  It’s an impossible matchup.  But I do think SOMEONE can beat Duke.  The Devils often become enamored with the three-point shot, despite not making it efficiently.  It takes six games to win this thing, and I think at some point they’ll pick a bad day to have a bad day and get stuck.  I’d prefer if someone more daunting than VA Tech or Mississippi State stood in the path, so my Duke prediction might come to fruition a round too late, but my larger point is that Duke is not invincible.  If North Carolina makes EITHER of their last-second shots in the ACC semis, we are looking at this team much differently heading into the Big Dance…

#3. Villanova Wildcats 15/1 –Bet against Jay Wright and his band of veteran champions at your own peril.  They have a decent path, with St. Mary’s, (likely) Purdue, and a possible mashup of Tennessee/Cincinnati or Iowa.  None of those are games they can’t win.  I don’t like the matchup with (over-projecting, but still) Virginia in the Regional Final, but at 15/1, we’d have a great hedge, and despite the fact I am picking UVA as my redemptive National Champion, I would still sweat the Wildcats given each team’s recent NCAA pedigree.

Good luck this week – enjoy the Madness!