Warriors -6.5

I’m going against most of my fundamentals in this game.  Traditionally I like to look for home dogs, and fading teams like Golden State who played a tough game the previous night.  However in this spot I think motivation and incentive for a top team vs a bottom feeder will trump all the other situations I typically look for to make a wager.

Since they lost vs Spurs I think it incentivizes the Warriors to go after this game with much more focus and tenacity. If they had won last night they might have elected to rest part of their big 3 or 4 for that matter.  Now, this is more of a must win if they want to keep that top seed in a very competitive Western Conference.  Minnesota will no longer be overlooked.  Earlier in the week it was speculated Curry or Durant might get this game off but as of writing this (4pm central) it looks like they are a go. (If they get a late scratch bet at your own risk).

Minnesota has been strong as home underdogs for most the season, but since they’ve been out of the playoff race they have literally started packing up for summer vacation.  They are getting blown out early and often and I see no reason for this to change in this game.  They’ve dropped 8 of their last 10 ATS.  Including 3 in a row vs the other top West contenders most recently by 15, 20, and 26 respectively.  And who comes to town next, the toughest of them all in Golden State. 

Overall we got a very motivated championship caliber team playing a lottery team.  And that should be enough for Golden State to cover!