The Kansas City Chiefs enter this AFC Divisional playoff clash as the one seed and fresh off of a historic season from quarterback Pat Mahomes. Arrowhead Stadium is one of the most intense environments in professional football. However, the Chiefs lost some steam at the end of the regular season, dropping three of their final six games and struggling a bit without former running back Kareem Hunt. They will welcome the hottest team in football, winners of ten of their last eleven contests, the Indianapolis Colts. The home side line up as five point favorites, a spot KC has done very well in, registering a 6-2 record Against the Spread (ATS) this season at home.

Offensively, the Kansas City Chiefs have been dynamic and explosive all season. A solid offensive line provides adequate blocking for Pat Mahomes and his rocket arm plus clever scheming does a great job of getting the ball into the hands of weapons like Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. This attack has produced just north of 425 yards per game and averages 35.3 points per contest. They have been terrific at finding chunk plays and generating mismatches for the defense. The big-play ability of the offense will be tested against a Colts defense that is designed to limit such plays. The Colts execution of the “Cover 2” scheme has improved drastically from the early days of the season and first-year defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus should be commended for the improvement this unit has shown. Expect the Colts to play a lot of dime package coverage and rely on just their defensive front to generate pressure on Pat Mahomes while the safeties and corners play a disciplined zone. Indianapolis has a couple of proven corners in Pierre Desir and Kenny Moore and Quincy Wilson has been rapidly improving. Safeties Malik Hooker and Clayton Geathers are going to be asked keep the lid on the defense and prevent Hill from shaking loose for deep bombs from Mahomes. The only issue with that is that Pat Mahomes has proven to be very adept at evading pass rushers and extending plays to find his options downfield. The Colts were burned by Deshaun Watson’s legs one week ago in Houston when they failed to bring him down after blitzing. Kansas City’s offensive line is significantly better than Houston’s and Mahomes won’t just be scrambling for short gains, he’ll be looking to escape the pocket to fire it downfield.

A key element of this game could very well be red zone efficiency. While the Chiefs excelled at hitting big plays, they were also terrific in the confined space of the red zone. They were second in the NFL in red zone touchdown percentage, finding the end zone on 51 of their 71 attempts (71.8%). Defensively, the Colts were above average in the red zone, allowing only 23 touchdowns on 43 trips. That rate of 53.5% was the 11^th best in the NFL. On the flip side, Kansas City’s defense was borderline atrocious in this area. They allowed 42 touchdowns on 58 opponent trips, a rate of 72.4%, which is second-worst in the NFL. The Indianapolis Colts have excelled, scoring on 44 of 64 attempts. That is a touchdown percentage of 68.8%, fifth in the NFL. Eric Ebron has been the focal point of the Colts red zone attack, catching ten balls inside the red zone, all for touchdowns. They’ve also run the ball exceedingly well inside the ten-yard line recently. In a game that figures to be tightly-contested, having to settle for field goals instead of touchdowns could be fatal to either side.

The primary weakness for the Kansas City Chiefs has undoubtedly been on the defensive side of the ball. They are the league’s worst run defense and Indianapolis ran for more than 200 yards against a stout Houston defense last week. Marlon Mack is proving to be a very capable runner now that he has stayed healthy for the first time in his career. The revelation this season though has been the play of Indianapolis’ offensive line. The group has excelled behind the play of rookies Quenton Nelson and Braden Smith and young center Ryan Kelly, shockingly turning into one of the league’s most dominant units. They’ll be tested by a very good pass rushing duo and a Kansas City scheme that has produced 52 sacks, tied for the best in the NFL. However, Frank Reich’s offense is designed to get the ball out of Andrew Luck’s early and prevents pass rushes from becoming a storyline. The Chiefs play matchup zone coverage that has been very susceptible to big plays (they’ve allowed the most pass plays of more than 20 yards in the NFL), something Andrew Luck and TY Hilton will not hesitate to exploit. Kendall Fuller figures to see the most work on Hilton and Kansas City doesn’t have much else in the secondary as Eric Berry struggles with injuries. Dontrelle Inman and Eric Ebron both figure to be issues for the home team on Saturday.

One factor that could certainly come into play is weather. The forecast calls for temperatures in the upper 20s with winds of up to 10 miles per hour and one to three inches of snow accumulation. While that would not cripple the passing game, it would certainly seem to favor the more physical, ground-based game of the Indianapolis Colts. It’s strange to say that poor weather would favor a team that plays its home games in an indoor stadium but that appears to be the case.