We split the picks last week, but are looking for better things today to close out (for the most part) the non-conference college hoops slate. There’s a bunch of dogs today, but a few real gems on the schedule as well, highlighted by a fun doubleheader in Chicago featuring some of college basketball’s most glamorous programs.  UCLA and Ohio State is the under card, before the North Carolina vs. Kentucky blockbuster that got even more attractive after UNC drilled the Zags last weekend in Chapel Hill.

Other highlights include a late night tilt between Arizona State and Kansas as the Devils look for a validating win and the Jayhawks look to close out the first half of the season unbeaten and ensure they’ll begin the New Year atop the national rankings.  Auburn has a sneaky home game against a decent Murray State team and Florida State will need to be sharp to avoid a home upset to a reasonable St. Louis squad.

Let’s dive in to today’s free picks:

TODAY’S FREE PICKS –

UCLA Bruins vs. Ohio State Buckeyes -6 (game in Chicago, IL)

This is my favorite play in a while.  I can get a good Ohio State team and only lay six points against a UCLA team that just got the life drubbed out of them in Pauley Pavilion by a Cincinnati team that Ohio State already beat.

Is it that simple?  I think it is.

UCLA is devoid of talent.  Kris Wilkes can legitimately ball.  Prince Ali is talented and Jalen Hands and Moses Brown are good basketball players.  But the sum of the parts isn’t working for Coach Alford in 2018.  They have been absolutely throttled by the three best teams they have played; Michigan State, North Carolina and Cincinnati all mangled them.  They lost a tight one to Belmont and their only quality win was a three-point home win over a down Notre Dame.  This team isn’t an NCAA Tournament team right now, and you can imagine the heat is getting flame-worthy for Alford.  They could REALLY use a season-saving win today, but I don’t think Ohio State will yield it.

The Buckeyes enter at an impressive 10-1 with quality wins over Cincinnati, Creighton and Minnesota.  The loss to Syracuse was a bit of a disappointment, but its the only unimpressive outing for Ohio State this season (though the recent Bucknell scare wasn’t their finest evening).  Kaleb Wesson has been an All Big Ten level performer so far this season and they are getting good solid production seven-deep on the roster.

This matchup favors Ohio State, more than just them being the better team, but also in how poorly UCLA is playing – and now they have to travel all the way East to Chicago.  Look for Ohio State to jump on UCLA early and to hold a double digit lead through the finish line.

MY PICK:  OHIO STATE -6

North Carolina Tar Heels -3.5 vs. Kentucky Wildcats

I took L’s on both these teams recently; underrating the Heels against Gonzaga and over-crediting Madison Square Garden’s effect on the Wildcats vs. Seton Hall (who I still think is a middling team at best).  So something has to give today…

Perhaps that giving will come from the Wildcats.  Literally.  As in, giving the ball away – and WAY too much. Kentucky has a stupid amount of talent, and the mix on paper was so tantalizing many people had them ranked ahead of Duke and Kansas in the preseason.  Take an elite recruiting class, add a couple returning Top 20 sophomores and add in an All-Pac12 grad transfer and it seems like a National Title-type mix.  And maybe it will be.  Eventually.  But right now?  Something’s just not quite clicking with Big Blue.  But the talent is there and could emerge at any time.

Kentucky is just 4-6 ATS with a disturbing -5.0 ppg margin against the spread.  That’s second worst in the SEC and not a normal number for a team with such a high ceiling. Meanwhile, Carolina is 6-2-2 ATS with a +3.8 margin.  They’ve shone brightly in two marquee games, smashing Gonzaga and UCLA, but also took one on the chin against Michigan.  We’ve seen the highs and the lows from North Carolina.

The metrics would lean a little towards UNC, but history in this matchup (they always play crazy tight, tense, competitive, thrilling games), neutral court with similar talent factor, and the emotional let-down after knocking off #1 Gonzaga, are a lot to overcome.

I’d take either team if I got more than a basket on a neutral court, so that edge goes to UK today.

Look for a thriller regardless.  I’ll take the points and a nice bounce-back effort for Coach Cal’s Cats who never seem to be truly down as far as some pundits like to put them…

MY PICK:  KENTUCKY WILDCATS +3.5