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“Shorestein Says” NFL Week #14 Breakdown

“The Money Zone” (the difference between my calculated spread and the actual spread is between 2-6).   Games that fall within this tier have hit above 55% on a 400+ game sample.  I consider games in this tier to have a statistical advantage in the long run.  Since I’ve been running the formula, about half of all games fall within this tier.  This is a completely objective calculation that does not account for injuries, roster changes, weather etc.  I believe the smartest investment is to make small bets on each one of these games and slowly increase them over time if you are successful.  Think of the Money Zone as the 401k of your bankroll.

**2018 Money Zone Record is 53-41 (56.38%) ATS so Far!**

 “Shorestein Says” Picks of the Week:  Each week I select between 3-5 of my favorite games and do additional analysis on. I’ve highlighted the “Shorestein Says” picks of the week in yellow.  Read below for my in-depth analysis.  **2018 Shorestein Says Picks of the Week are 30-21 (58.82%) ATS so Far!** 

Denver @ San Francisco +4:  I am backing Nick Mullens against Denver just a week after I trashed him.  This play is more of a fade on Denver than anything else.  They just suffered two devastating injuries to Emmanuel Sanders and Chris Harris who are probably their two best offensive and defensive skill players.  Even before the injuries, I was a skeptic with Denver playing as a back to back significant road favorite.  Not to mention, they are coming off a game at Cincinnati and traveling all the way out to San Francisco.

The 49ers offense has moved the ball between the 20’s surprisingly well.  They have had major troubles turning the ball over and in the red zone.  Aside from these two items, these teams are very similar in terms of important statistical metrics. 

On paper, I see two teams that have run the ball effectively but have struggled with efficiency in the passing game where it matters most.  In situations like this, I think the road team is at a significant disadvantage as a FG+ favorite.  I think Denver’s recent victories over Pittsburgh and Cincinnati have unjustly inflated the spread in this game. 

Random Thoughts from Around the League:

  • Just three more weeks left!… let’s hope the Money Zone can carry us to the finish line!
  • Feels dangerous to fade New England this week. I don’t think I can hear the “They always struggle in Miami” cliché anymore….
  • Funny to see Sanchez return to action the other night. He even got a “Butt Fumble Recovery” in.
  • The Chiefs would probably have been my 5th play if I had to choose. I like Lamar Jackson, but I don’t think he’s ready for the NFL yet.  Even thought the Ravens have a strong defense, I can’t see them slowing down Mahomes.
  • My God, Pittsburgh….. just pathetic. Absolutely pathetic. Just boggles my mind to see Tomlin come back every year after these brutal losses.  They covered Keenan Allen with a LB on what seemed like 99% of the game?
  • I officially retire Carolina for the rest of 2018…..
  • Atlanta vs. Green Bay is probably the matchup between the two most talented, underachieving teams of the year.
  • You would probably have to pay me to watch Detroit vs. Arizona.
  • The Bills have quietly turned into a really good defense. If Josh Allen develops his mechanics, they could have a bright future.  Just a few weeks ago, I had crowned them as the new 2017 Browns.

Good Luck!

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