“The Money Zone” (the difference between my calculated spread and the actual spread is between 2-6).   Games that fall within this tier have hit above 56% on a 400+ game sample.  I consider games in this tier to have a statistical advantage in the long run.  Since I’ve been running the formula, about half of all games fall within this tier.  This is a completely objective calculation that does not account for injuries, roster changes, weather etc.  I believe the smartest investment is to make small bets on each one of these games and slowly increase them over time if you are successful.  Think of the Money Zone as the 401k of your bankroll.

**2018 Money Zone Record is 36-27 (57.14%) ATS so Far!**

The Money Zone picks for week 10 are Cincinnati, Carolina, NY Jets, Tennessee, Philadelphia, Kansas City, NY Giants, & LA Chargers

“Shorestein Says” Picks of the Week:  Each week I select between 3-5 of my favorite games and do additional analysis on. I’ve highlighted the “Shorestein Says” picks of the week in yellow.  Read below for my in-depth analysis.  **2018 Shorestein Says Picks of the Week are 21-13 (61.76%) ATS so Far!** 

Washington +3 @ Tampa Bay: You probably guessed that I would be picking Washington once you saw Tampa listed as a favorite.  At this point it really looks like Dirk Koetter has completely lost the locker room.  His team has gotten pounded in the first half in consecutive weeks.  Fitzpatrick has thrown together some garbage time points and yardage to make the games look respectable, but it is largely the inept defense that is not an NFL caliber unit.  Much like the Bills’ offense, I’ve probably said all that I can about how bad the Bucs defense is.  I’ll just give you this stat summary to help you comprehend how bad it is:

Tampa has essentially given up MVP numbers on average to everyone that they played this year.  That chart ended up even worse than I anticipated…. Also, keep in mind that they have played Nick Foles, Mitch Trubisky, Baker Mayfield and Andy Dalton for half of those games.  It truly is remarkably bad.

On the other hand, I like the Redskins ability to bounce back after losses.  This season, the Redskins are 2-0 in the weeks following a loss.  They’ve beat two solid teams in the Panthers and Packers.  They were extremely productive defensively in those two wins:

Offensively, Smith has been in a bit of a cold streak and they’ve suffered some injuries on the offensive line.  Luckily, Tampa has zero pass rush and they shouldn’t be able to exploit that problem.  I think Chris Thompson is the key to making Washington’s offense go.  Hopefully, he’s back and healthy. 

Finally, Vegas has appropriately adjusted expectations for all of the bottom teams of the league in terms of passer rating differential except for the Bucs:

Each of these other teams is a huge underdog this weekend, but somehow Tampa is still listed as a favorite.

Dallas @ Philadelphia -7: It should be time for Philadelphia to reassert itself as the leader of the NFC East.  Doug Pederson, who’s a protégé of Andy Reid AKA the “King of the Bye-Week” should develop a game plan to exploit the vulnerable Cowboys.  With newly acquired Golden Tate, I think the Eagles have finally revitalized their skill players for Carson Wentz that were previously missing for much of 2018.  So far this year, their offense hasn’t been the same due to injury.  Another potential bonus could be the return of Darren Sproles.  I know he’s old, but he still looked dynamic in his sole game this year against the Falcons. 

Defensively, the Eagles are an awful matchup for the run-heavy Cowboys.  Philly’s strengths on defense is on the front seven, and they have historically stuffed Zeke Elliott.  He averages just 4 yards a carry when facing the Eagles.  As you’d probably expect, Prescott hasn’t produced against the Eagles due to the run game mitigation:

The Cowboys just don’t have the quarterback required to pick apart the matchups at corner where Philly is thin.  I will continually point out Dak’s inability to score points without the crutch of his effective running game.   

New England @ Tennessee +6.5: It feels very “squarish” of me to be fooled by the Titans Monday Night performance, but I’m doing it anyways. 

This game just screams “Super Bowl” for all the ex-Patriots on the Tennessee roster/staff.  The Titans have proven themselves as a viable home team in victories over Philly & Houston.  I’ve also been impressed with Vrabel as a coach so far. I like his in-game adjustments and he has to know the weaknesses of the Patriots defense intricately.  To beat New England you need to throw early and often. You also need to throw to your running backs and tight ends.  With Dion Lewis, they should really take advantage of his linebacker/safety matchups.  Mariota played probably his best game I’ve seen from him on Monday.  He was poised in the pocket and he made some contested throws into tight windows.  He’s got to keep that up to keep this game close.

New England’s offense is a step behind right now.  With all of their injuries/issues they had early, Brady doesn’t look as crisp as usual.  The offense has struggled on the road so far, and that could continue against a talented Titans defense.  I especially like Logan Ryan’s ability to cover big/physical receivers like Josh Gordon.  He’s had some of his best games against the taller receivers.  Malcolm Butler has been terrible this season, but I think he has the heart and will to play a great revenge game against his now arch enemy in Belichick.  The Patriots run game should be non-existent as the Titans have shown that they are very strong in that area.  Gronkowski will probably be a game-time decision, but even if he plays, he has not been himself.  On the road, the Patriots are just 2-2 in 2018, and their offense has had some real problems.  As a TD Dog, the Titans again look like they have value. 

Random Thoughts from Around the League:

• Shorestein Sweep last week… 4-0! 2^nd time of the year! Picks of the week back over 60% YTD!
• Vegas had one of the worst weeks in a very long time in week 9. Almost all of the heavily bet, big favorites won and covered….. Something tells me a lot of people will give their money back this weekend….
• 8 games in the Money Zone this week… most all year.
• New Orleans is due to lay an egg soon. Cincy has often been a place where teams do that.
• I still like the Chiefs at -17! Can’t believe that number. I’d be curious to see what the look ahead line was in the preseason….
• Seahawks as 10 point dogs seems way too easy. Looks like a trap bet.
• As much as I’d like to fade the Bills again, it’s just hard taking the Jets seriously as TD+ favorites.
• Well, the Giants are back from their bye and unfortunately back in the Money Zone. It depresses me to see Eli tarnish the record of my beautiful formula.

Good Luck!