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2018 Big Ten Picks – Week 10

The Indiana Hoosiers mounted a furious comeback only to surrender a late touchdown that gave the Gophers the cover (and me the loss) and Iowa somehow managed to push at Penn State, despite clearly being the better side. Wisconsin and Northwestern went under the total so the week was a total wash. I am now 14-19-1 on the year.

November is underway and there is a nearly full schedule: Nebraska at Ohio State (-21) (total of 70), Rutgers at Wisconsin (-30) (total of 50.5), Michigan State (-3) at Maryland (total of 47), Iowa at Purdue (-3) (total of 51), Minnesota (-9.5) at Illinois (total of 60.5), Penn State at Michigan (-9.5) (total of 52.5), Notre Dame (-6.5) at Northwestern (total of 53.5)

Nebraska at Ohio State – Noon on FOX – OVER 70

The Ohio State Buckeyes have been forced to sit and stew for two weeks after their defeat in West Lafayette. I am very confident they will come out ready to put a hurting on the Nebraska Cornhuskers. They may find it more difficult than they hope as Nebraska is playing quite well, particularly on offense. The Huskers have become a reliable over team, going over in five straight games before last week’s laugher against Bethune-Cookman. Adrian Martinez is a dual-threat quarterback and I think the Huskers receivers are going to give Ohio State’s secondary quite a few problems. On the other side of the ball, Nebraska just doesn’t have the horses to slow the Buckeyes down.

Rutgers (+30) at Wisconsin – Noon on BTN

The Wisconsin Badgers are just 2-6 against the spread (ATS) this season and they have not looked strong for a couple of weeks. The offense isn’t nearly as dominant as I had expected entering the season as Alex Hornibrook (who missed last week with a concussion) has not progressed as much as you would have hoped and they miss the dynamic play of Quintez Cephus. The Scarlet Knights are very bad and I can’t imagine Chris Ash will be the head coach in Piscataway next season but Wisconsin has not beaten anyone by 30 since week two. I think Rutgers loses big but covers.

Penn State at Michigan (-9.5) – 3:45 on ESPN

The Michigan Wolverines are playing very well, particularly on defense. The offense has been a bit hit or miss but it has been operating at a high-level in Ann Arbor. The Wolverines are surprisingly 5-3 ATS and I have ridden them to a couple of victories recently. I plan on that continuing on Saturday as I expect somewhat of a blowout against Penn State. The Nittany Lions have struggled to move the ball efficiently through the air and is a recipe for disaster against the Wolverines defense as they will not have a hard time getting to Trace McSorley. On the other side of the ball, I think Michigan will be able to run at will on the Nittany Lions. Give me the Maize and Blue to win big at home.

Iowa (+3) at Purdue – 3:30 on ESPN2

The Iowa Hawkeyes are a Big Ten best 6-2 ATS this season and they should have beaten Penn State straight up last week in Happy Valley. Nate Stanley missed multiple open throws and didn’t seem like himself, especially after banging his hand on a defender’s helmet. Stanley is apparently healthy and ready to go and I think the Hawkeyes are the better and more complete team. They have a similar defense to the Michigan State one that bothered the Boilermakers last Saturday and I anticipate more of the same but with a more effective offense on the other side of the ball. I know Purdue is a tough out at home but I like the Hawkeyes to bounce back and win straight up.

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