Another 2-3 week leaves me at 10-15 on the season. Michigan came through very nicely and it was an emphatic winner but not much else went well. There’s no denying it, I’m in a rut and need a strong week to start digging out. This week’s slate of games is listed below:

Michigan (-6.5) at Michigan State (total of 41.5), Maryland at Iowa (-9.5) (total of 50.5), Illinois at Wisconsin (-26.5) (total of 54.5), Northwestern (-20.5) at Rutgers (total of 49), Penn State (-14.5) at Indiana (total of 61), Minnesota at Nebraska (-3.5) (total of 54), Ohio State (-12) at Purdue (total of 66)

Michigan (-6.5) at Michigan State – Noon on FOX (OVER 41.5)

The Michigan Wolverines have been dominant at home this season but it is now time for them to take it on the road. This rivalry has belonged to the Spartans of late and their win at Penn State last week certainly has me rethinking them but I still like the Wolverines to overwhelm MSU and get the victory. Shea Patterson is really starting to play quite well and it is clear that the offensive staff is getting a handle on his strengths and beginning to successfully tailor the attack around what he does well. The running game continues to function well and they bludgeoned Wisconsin to death in primetime last Saturday. Michigan State has a better front seven than the Badgers but it is a comparable test and I think their secondary can be had if Michigan takes some deep shots. On the other side of the ball, Michigan State will likely have no success running the ball against this fierce Michigan defense. As a result, I expect Brian Lewerke to have to throw the ball 40+ times. I think he’ll make a few mistakes that the Wolverines will be able to cash in on. However, Sparty has some good receivers (particularly Felton Davis) that should be able to make some plays. Michigan is 4-3 ATS (MSU is just 2-4) and both teams have gone over the total four times this season. I like Michigan to win this game by double-digits and I like the game to go over the low total of 41.5.

Illinois (+26.5) at Wisconsin – Noon on FS1

The Fighting Illini were awful last week against Purdue. However, I don’t think this Wisconsin team should currently be favored by nearly 27 points against just about anyone in the Big Ten. Their defense simply doesn’t look nearly as strong as I thought it would and they have very little outside of Jonathan Taylor at tailback to scare you on offense as Scott Hornibrook has not taken the next step in his development. The Badgers are just 1-5 ATS this season while Illinois has shown enough signs of life to go 3-3 ATS. I think the Illini can execute a little better than they did against Purdue and reach 14 to 17 points. Doing so would force Wisconsin to reach the 40s to cover and I don’t see that happening. Wisconsin wins comfortably but Illinois covers.

Northwestern (-20.5) at Rutgers – Noon on BTN

Rutgers is 2-5 against the spread and it seems you cannot set the number high enough for them to cover in Big Ten games. They were shellacked by Maryland last week and had a historically inept passing day. Meanwhile, Northwestern’s offense is flying high and feeling good after a comeback victory over the Nebraska Cornhuskers. I don’t especially trust Northwestern’s defense but the Scarlet Knights are so consistently bad on offense that I can’t envision a scenario where they score more than 20 points. Give me the Wildcats for the blowout win and cover.

Minnesota at Nebraska (-3.5 and OVER 54) – 3:30 on BTN

It’s time. After some heartbreaking losses and what is now a program-record losing streak (10 games), Nebraska is still searching for Scott Frost’s first victory as the head coach at Nebraska. The Huskers are back at home and Adrian Martinez has proven to be a good weapon with a bright future at quarterback and the Nebraska offense has performed well enough to win at least a couple of games. They have just gotten very little help from their defense, surrendering at least 33 points in all but one game this season. Last week, the Minnesota Golden Gophers performed admirably against Ohio State and kept things competitive before eventually falling 30-14. Their run defense was terrific but the pass defense still surrendered more than 400 yards and Dwayne Haskins completed 33 of 44 passes. It was quite surprising the Buckeyes only managed 30 points from that. Nebraska is going to air it out and take advantage of the secondary and Minnesota’s defense was porous against Iowa and Maryland in the two weeks prior. Nebraska has gone over the total in four straight contests and I like that streak to continue. I also think the Huskers rally to get their first win of the Scott Frost era, covering at home against the Gophers.